Your New Year’s NBA Time Capsule: January 1st, 2011

0 Comments

Today is the first day of 2011 A.D.. It’s a brand new year, and by the end of it, things are unlikely to look much the way they look now, as it is with every 365 days.  So consider this your NBA Time Capsule, to dig up later and see what life was like on this day.

The NBA’s Biggest Star is… Kobe Bryant. Even with LeBron James nipping at his heels in every category and the two-time MVP, Bryant holds on because of his international (read:China) stardom. Winning championships makes you famous abroad, and right now Bryant holds that moniker squarely in his hand. On the verge of his second three-peat which will tie him with Michael Jordan, Bryant has left behind accusations in Colorado, turmoil with Shaquille O’Neal, and questions about his selfishness. Bryant’s time is definitely limited in this slot, as his jumpshot begins to deteriorate even as he clings for life to his usage percentage (currently highest of his career). Bryant is the leader of the defending champion team, in the biggest basketball market in the league, with the biggest fanbase of “casual” fans, and does so by scoring a lot of points. He is this generation’s greatest player, for all the good and ill that means.

The NBA’s Best Player Is… LeBron James. LeBron is also the most hated player in the A, but that doesn’t change the facts. Even as his numbers dip beside Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh for the Miami Heat, James is the only player who can take over on so many levels. He can rise up and nail the three-ball to dagger a team’s comeback hopes, he can fly in transition like no other athlete, he rebounds, chases down blocks, sees the whole floor, and is so good from so many spots. James’ value as a basketball player can be questioned in terms of heart, competitiveness, ability to rise to the moment, and humility (as if any NBA great has possessed true humility). But in terms of bouncing the ball on the hardwood and putting it through the net there is no question. LeBron James is the best player in the NBA.

The Most Underrated Player is… Al Horford. Horford was an All-Star last year, in the most quiet way possible. He’s better, much better, this year. On a Hawks team no one wants to look at or discuss because of their stale combination of players, limited playoff ability, and the contract of Joe Johnson which makes everyone squeamish to look at, Horford has been sensational. He’s averaging career highs in the following categories: points per game (16.7), points per 36 minutes (17.8), rebounds per 36 (10.3), assists per game (3.2), assists per 36 (3.4), AST% (17.3), Usage (21.3%), PER (23.3), FG% (58%), FT% (81%), Offensive Rating (122) and Defensive Rating (102). He’s the best player on the Atlanta Hawks, a team that features Johnson, Jamal Crawford, and Josh Smith. He is able to defend any frontcourt player in the league (even doing a decent job on Dwight Howard), works tirelessly, doesn’t create problems with his attitude, and gets the job done in every facet of the game. Horford should be talked about on halftime discussions on national television and voted into the All-Star game (he is currently third among East center reserves, behind a 38-year-old role player who averages 21 minutes a game and his brother-in-arms from Florida who has played 11 fewer games than Horford due to injury). Horford is an incredible player and one fans have not taken advantage of appreciating in his time.

The Biggest Problem for the NBA is… the CBA negotiations. On January 1st, 2011, we awake with the knowledge that we may not have professional basketball on this day in 2012. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires this summer, and both sides are deadlocked. The owners want massive rollbacks of the current salary structure, including contracts signed just this past summer, want to institute a hard cap which would dramatically change the sport, and generally peel back on everything financially related to the players. The Players pretty much don’t want anything to change, outside of better revenue sharing and more rules to allow more fluid player movement. The Players’ Union has agreed to a compromise regarding a change in the percentage of BRI (Basketball Related Income) they receive as part of the next CBA, a major compromise on their part indicating a willingness to work to get a deal. The owners have made no such equal compromise on their end. A lockout is regarded as unavoidable at this point, which is really depressing.

The Biggest Emerging Story in the NBA is… Blake Griffin is awesome. Seriously, if you’re reading this in the future, go check out his YouTube clips, if YouTube still exists.

The Best Team in the NBA is… the Boston Celtics. They’re starting to swoon just as this has been written, losers of their last two and three of their last four. But from October 26th through Christmas, they were far and away the best team. Even with the San Antonio Spurs rocking off a 28-4 mark, the Celtics have simply dismantled nearly every opponent that’s come their way, usually losing only due to mental miscues or injury. If at full strength, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where they do not win the Eastern Conference. Rajon Rondo has played at an incredible level when healthy, Kevin Garnett has appeared to have more explosion than he has in three years before a calf injury shut him down for two weeks, and Ray Allen is Ray Allen. All this and Kendrick Perkins is still on the shelf. The Celtics are downright terrifying.

The Biggest Bust in the NBA is… Hasheem Thabeet. Darko Milicic is a starter, now. Kwame Brown gets minutes. Hasheem Thabeet continues to haunt the Memphis Grizzlies as their biggest draft mistake in a long line of horrific draft mistakes. In a recent game he was unable to see the floor against the Toronto Raptors, despite the Raptors being without Reggie Evans and Andrea Bargnani. The Raptors started Amir Johnson and Joey Dorsey, yet Thabeet could not get playing time. What’s worse, as a colleague in Memphis pointed out, Thabeet somehow looks worse than he did last season. It’s a nightmare with the fact that Thabeet was drafted second overall. Hopefully in the far off future, this looks silly and premature.

The League’s Biggest Storyline is… How Good Are The Heat? The team everyone loves to hate (while they’re spending their hard-earned time and money on them) has destroyed everything in their path for the past month. After overcoming their early struggles, they used defensive stops to kick-start their transition offense, and in that area they are nearly unstoppable. They have a signature win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Christmas in LA. But they have also lost twice to the Celtics, once to the Magic, twice to the Mavericks, and a host of other good-not-great teams. No team is harder to figure out than the Heat, and we’re still struggling to get a grip on them as 2011 begins.

The League’s Second Biggest Storyline is… Will Melo Get Moved? Carmelo Anthony is on the trade block, has been since summer when he requested a trade after declining to sign the Nuggets’ max extension. Since then it’s been a ridiculous circus for the Nuggets as they were able to piece together a four-team trade with him going to the Nets…only to have it fall apart when they decided they wanted more than what they were getting. Now they’re in danger of having no one to trade with after souring multiple partners with their flip-flopping and squeamish behavior. They seem unwilling to accept that Anthony is vapor trails, and cling to the hope that he’ll sign his extension and stay in Denver. If when you read this he’s signed with Denver, count us all surprised, because we’re betting when you read this his next jersey reads “New York.” Or at least “Brooklyn.”

The MVP is… Dirk Nowitzki. Nowitzki has managed to do everything you’d want an MVP to do. He contributes on both ends of the floor, delivers in the clutch, puts up the numbers, can score when you need him to, has led his team to wins (second best record in the West), his team struggles without him (lost to Spurs with him on the bench), and he’s the face of the franchise. He’s done everything this season, so far. Other candidates include: Amar’e Stoudemire, Manu Ginobili, Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose, and Dwight Howard.

We hope you enjoyed reading this on your rocket ship while sipping Tang, the beverage of the future.

It’s not just Harden, Rockets reportedly eyeing VanVleet, Lopez, Brooks

New York Knicks v Toronto Raptors
Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images
0 Comments

The Houston Rockets are done rebuilding, ownership and management want to shift gears to picking up some wins and making the playoffs. That means using their league-best $60 million in cap space to add difference-making veterans to the young core of Jalen Green, Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr. and whoever they draft at No. 4 (if they keep the pick).

And it’s not just James Harden they are going after, reports Jake Fischer at Yahoo Sports.

…sharp-shooting center Brook Lopez, is a veteran free agent on Houston’s radar, league sources told Yahoo Sports.

There will be no shortage of players on the market connected to the Rockets between now and the opening of free agency June 30… The Rockets, though, are prioritizing adding a proven table-setting point guard, then looking to acquire upgrades at the wing and center position, sources said. And for that, should Harden ultimately stick with the 76ers, Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet has often been linked to Houston as a secondary option who could perhaps slot into the team’s lead ball-handling role.

On the wing, the Rockets do hold an interest in sharpshooter Cam Johnson, sources said, although Brooklyn personnel has indicated the Nets’ plan to match any realistic offer sheet for the restricted free agent, who was part of the franchise’s return for Kevin Durant. Dillons Brooks, last seen as Memphis’ starting small forward, is another Rockets target, sources told Yahoo Sports, and appears to be a more realistic candidate to join Houston this summer.

There’s a lot to digest there.

Milwaukee is facing some hard decisions as their championship roster is getting old and expensive fast, with the restrictive new CBA’s second tax apron looming. As Fischer notes, the Bucks are expected to extend Khris Middleton, who is owed $40.4 million next season (player option), and Jrue Holiday is extension eligible soon. Lopez will demand a big salary, he finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and is a floor-spacing big who averaged 15.9 points per game last season. The Bucks would struggle to win without him, but at age 35 how will that contract age?

A lot of teams are eyeing Fred VanVleet and Toronto wants to keep him, he will have options. A lot of teams are watching Cam Johnson as a restricted free agent, but the Nets like him as part of their future and are not expected to let him walk. Dillon Brooks will not be back with the Grizzlies as a free agent, and for all the drama he is an elite on-ball defender and energy player who could help the Rockets.

Houston needs the James Harden domino to fall, then they can see what they have left to spend elsewhere. But one way or another, that will be a very different roster next season.

Three things to watch in Game 3, starting with who wins the fourth quarter

0 Comments

MIAMI — After looking flat in Game 1, the Heat got some rest, acclimated to the altitude, and looked like themselves in Game 2 — particularly in the fourth quarter. Miami had a game reminiscent of the Boston series, and when it was done the NBA Finals were tied 1-1.

Can Denver bounce back in Game 2? The Nuggets are facing adversity they have not seen yet this postseason — they were up 2-0 in every other series — and the question is how will they respond? That and how well will Miami shoot the 3-pointer?

Here are three things worth watching.

1) Who wins the fourth quarter?

While the Heat’s 48.6% 3-point shooting in Game 2 was at the heart of their win, the question shouldn’t be can they repeat it? Of course they can. It’s why they are still playing. They have seven games this postseason shooting 45+% from 3.

However, there is one other key factor in this series: The fourth quarter.

Through two NBA Finals games, the Denver Nuggets are +29 in the first three quarters but are -21 in the fourth.

Nuggets coach Michael Malone is no fan of the trend — and he had the stats to back himself up.

“If you really want to simplify the first two games, in the first three quarters we have dominated both games. The Miami Heat are dominating the fourth quarter,” Malone said, “They’re averaging 33 points a game in the fourth quarter, shooting over 60% from the field in the fourth quarter and over 50% from three.”

Malone was just getting started.

“I’ve got a great stat: I think quarters one through three after two games, we had around 19% of our possessions were [shots] at the end of the shot clock, last seven seconds,” Malone said. “In the fourth quarter of Game 1 and 2, that jumps from 19% to 32%.

“Which means we’re taking the ball out of the net, we’re walking it up, we’re playing against the zone and we’re getting caught playing in really late-clock situations, which is hurting our offense.”

Miami’s late-game dominance goes back to the regular season, when they had the second-best net rating in the clutch of any team in the league. It has continued through the playoffs, starting with against the Bulls in the play-in — when the Heat had to come back in the fourth just to be in the playoffs, — and has been a through line to the NBA Finals.

This is not going to be a series won in blowouts, there will be more games decided in the fourth quarter and the clutch. If Denver can’t figure out the final frame starting in Game 3, they will be in trouble this series.

2) Can Heat keep Nikola Jokić from being an assist machine

The Miami Heat need to make Jokić a scorer.

Erik Spoelstra hates that phrasing and Nikola Jokić says he’s just playing the game, not thinking about it that way. Fine. We’ll put it this way:

The Heat can’t allow Jokić to become an assist machine.

Phrase it any way you wish, but if Jokić is allowed to score and dish the Heat will not be able to keep up with the Nuggets offense. Put simply, if Jokić scores 35+ points but has around five assists, the Heat have a chance to win. But if he scores around 25 points but with 10+ assists, if Denver is raining down scoring from everywhere, Miami will not be able to keep up.

The Heat plan is a lot of Bam Adebayo and to keep giving Jokić different looks.

“He can go through two or three coverages and figure it out in a matter of, up and down, up and down,” Adebayo said, nodding his head up and down. “He’s already read the game, reading the game. So the biggest thing for us is switching up the coverages and having him see different looks.”

3) It’s all about the Heat shooting

It’s simple and reductive, but it’s been true thought the playoffs and continues into the Finals: When the Heat hit their 3-pointers at a 40%+ clip, they win. It was true in Game 2, and it’s how Miami can keep pace with Denver.

Game 2 was not some shooting aberration, the Heat can keep doing this and the Nuggets know it.

“They are shooting against Milwaukee 43%. They are shooting against Boston 40-something percent,” Jokić said. “They have good shooters, and that’s why they are so deadly and dangerous, because you cannot leave them open.
“Yes, the first game Max [Strus] and Caleb [Martin] didn’t shoot well. But we know they’re going to be better. We just need to don’t give them wide-open looks. They are two great shooters that at least they need to see somebody in front of them, not just a basket.”

That was the theme from Denver — get out and contest. Make it tougher. Use the Nuggets’ length and size advantage to challenge them. The problem is the Heat have shot incredibly well on contested 3s on the night their shots are falling, and with the comfort level their role players have at home it may not matter who is in their face.

Lakers question coming in August: Extend Anthony Davis, or wait?

2023 NBA Playoffs - Denver Nuggets v Los Angeles Lakers
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images
0 Comments

Anthony Davis had an incredible playoff run: 22.6 points and 14.1 rebounds a game while looking like the best defender in the league. It was a reminder of why he has a championship ring and what he is capable of when healthy.

Coming off that, should the Lakers offer him a contract extension?

Davis is under contract for $40.6 million next season, with an early termination option (essentially a player option) for the 2024-25 season for $43.2 million. Come August, the Lakers can offer Davis an extension of up to three years, $167 million (approximately, it would depend on the official salary cap numbers).

Should the Lakers? ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported on Get Up that locking Davis up so he can’t test free agency in 2024 will be a priority and they will extend him. However, on Sedano and Kap on ESPNLA, ESPN’s Lakers beat writer Dave McMenamin was more cautious. (Hat tip Real GM.)

“Certainly, the Lakers’ thinking ever since they acquired Anthony Davis is that it’s an Anthony Davis, LeBron James combo deal. With LeBron James only under contract for sure for another year with a player option the following year., and with him openly contemplating retirement at this stage of his career… But you just don’t do it. You play out this year with him. You see where things stand with him and LeBron. Obviously, then you risk the second year he has left, he can opt-out and leave as a free agent…

“You hope Anthony Davis stays healthy and you get the best out of him next year. But I don’t think they’re going to be in a position to be interested in a long-term extension for him this summer.”

At its core, this comes down to LeBron James and his future. If he retires, leaves, or in whatever way is not on the Lakers after the summer of 2024, as great as Davis can be, he is not the No. 1 option the Lakers would want to rebuild around. At that point, the Lakers would want to move on, although trading Davis (or completing a sign-and-trade) would be the Lakers’ preferred option, bringing back pick and young players to help jumpstart whatever comes next.

If LeBron is still a Laker in 2024-25, the Lakers would want Davis on the roster.

It’s not an easy decision for the Lakers, but with an increasingly strict CBA looming, it’s understandable if the Lakers want to wait and see how this season plays out before committing to Davis.

James Harden reportedly “torn” over Philadelphia vs. Houston

2023 NBA Playoffs - Boston Celtics v Philadelphia 76ers
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images
0 Comments

Reports of James Harden strongly considering a Houston reunion have grown stronger throughout the season, with reporting on it here at NBC Sports and across the NBA media universe.

But would Harden really leave a contending team in Philadelphia to go to a rebuilding Houston team? He appears torn on his decision, Shams Charania of The Athletic said on The Ryen Russillo Podcast (hat tip Real GM).

“We’re less than a month out from free agency starting. I really think he’s torn with the prospect of staying in Philadelphia or moving on to Houston potentially and returning back to his home. That’s where his roots are and his family there of course. They’ve got upwards of $60 million [in cap space]. They can make even more money available. Close to $70 million in cap space. They’re going to have a ton of money and I think this is a team in Houston where I do believe they are going to be aggressive in the marketplace…

“My sense right now is this is someone that is torn. I think whichever way it goes, it’s going to be relatively close. That’s why as we get closer to July 1, June 30th, those conversations that he’s going to have, as he becomes a free agent, with Nick Nurse [the new 76ers coach] and with Daryl Morey, what their vision is for him, what their vision is for that team, what that offer ultimately is going to be versus comparing it to whatever Houston comes with on June 30th or July 1, those are all very important factors. This is a guy that you would assume would sit down with both teams. Philadelphia is going to have a window earlier, potentially going in and scheduling meetings. This is a situation now where we’re going to see which way it lands.”

Both league sources NBC Sports has spoken with and other media members traveling with the NBA Finals — Harden has been a topic of conversation over meals — think Houston is the frontrunner. There is almost an expectation in league circles that Harden will be a Rocket next season, though nobody feels anything is decided.

Is that the right move for the Rockets? They have an interesting young core with whoever they draft at No.4 plus Jalen Green, Alperen Şengün, Kevin Porter Jr., Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason and others, but it’s not got a group ready to win a lot of games on the NBA level yet. The Rockets have been through three years of a rebuild and the reports are ownership wants to start seeing wins and a playoffs trip. Harden gets them closer to that now, but at what cost to building a long-term winner and culture?

The ball is in Harden’s court. The only real questions are, has he decided, and how much would the Rockets offer? (The max is four years, $201 million, but do they want to pay him $50 million a season for four years with where his skills are currently and are trending?)