NBA Season Preview: Houston Rockets

By Kurt HelinOct 14, 2010, 5:08 PM EDT

Last season: 42-40. They were average on offense, average on defense and had an average record — which is actually pretty impressive considering they had no stars to carry them. This was a good squad of role players waiting for a leader.

Head Coach: Rick Adelman, who missed the playoffs last season for just the third time as a coach. That’s impressive.

Key Departures: Trevor Ariza, who left as part of the four-team deal that brought Coutney Lee in to Houston. Ariza went from being a cog in the Lakers machine to a key player in the Rockets offense — and with that increased usage on offense came far less efficient — his True Shooting percentage dropped from .544 in Los Angeles to .488 in Houston. Not everyone is suited to be the guy creating the offense — Ariza could do that well on the break but not in the half-court roles Houston had for him.

Key Additions: Yao Ming is back. Limited in minutes, not moving as well as he did before missing a year due to foot surgery (particularly laterally). But he is still a 7’6” guy with touch on the midrange who can defend the rim with insanely long arms. Even 80 percent of Yao makes the Rockets a much better team… if he can just stay healthy.

The Rockets also locked up Luis Scola, who reminded us at the FIBA World Championships that he is dang good and gets overlooked. Other guys in the door are Courtney Lee and Yao’s backup Brad Miller. Houston also drafted Patrick Paterson, who seems to fit their mold.

Best case scenario: Yao Ming stays healthy and as the season moves on plays more and more minutes, becoming more and more his old self. Then by the playoffs everything is clicking and they are serious threat to the Lakers.

For that to happen: It really is all about Yao.

Sure, there are other things that have to happen. Aaron Brooks has to continue as a catalyst for the Rockets inside-out offense and has to continue to play up to his Most Improved Player status. Kevin Martin needs to be the wing scorer and three-point threat this team needs to stretch the floor. Scola and Shane Battier need to continue to do their thing efficiently. Kyle Lowry needs to lead a change-of-pace second unit that runs and puts up points.

Basically — the Rockets need to play like they did last year, but with Yao now as the leader.

On defense the once formidable Rockets took a hit because after Yao this is not a big team and they lacked someone who could protect the rim. Last season the Rockets allowed teams to shoot 62.7 percent at the rim (eighth worst in the league) and get 28.1 shots per game there (sixth worst in the league). Yao has to change that, force teams to shoot from the outside more, miss more when they do get in the lane. That allows guys like Battier to be more dangerous and aggressive out on the wings.

The Rockets need to keep the flow in the offense and work inside out with Yao — who is a fantastic passer, so it should work. Yao also should help the Rockets on the boards, another area they needed to improve last season.

The question is, can Yao do all this now? After a year off for major foot surgery at age 30?

More likely the Rockets will: Be better, but Yao will be a step slow from his old self, and with that the Rockets will be a step behind their ultimate goals. They will end up like a lot of teams in the West, good but not quite good enough to best the Lakers.

And the risk of injury to the Rockets seems higher than a lot of teams. Yao and Martin have very thick doctors files.

But also know this — a healthy Rockets might be the Lakers toughest matchup in the West. A reasonably healthy Yao stymies Bynum, Battier can slow Kobe, the Lakers are susceptible to quick penetrating point guards like Brooks. Remember that two seasons ago the Rockets took the Lakers seven games (the series where Yao injured his foot). If one team in the West can upset a fairly healthy Lakers squad, it might well be a healthy Rockets squad.

Prediction: 48-34, one of the bottom couple seeds in the West. And we may get to see my theory about them matching up well with the Lakers early on.

Report: Suns tell Chris Paul they intend to waive him, making him free agent

By Kurt HelinJun 7, 2023, 7:14 PM EDT

Megan Briggs/Getty Images

There was a lot of talk in league circles that the Suns would try to trade Chris Paul around the NBA Draft — he still had $60 million over two years on the books, but only $15.8 million of it is guaranteed (all of that this season) with a June 28 guarantee date. Paul for a couple of rotation players would be a way for Phoenix to add needed depth to the roster.

Instead, the Suns informed Paul they intend to waive him before the deadline, making CP3 a free agent, reports Chris Haynes of Bleacher Report and Yahoo.

Sources: The Suns and Chris Paul are exploring multiple options, including a trade, stretching his contract, or waiving and re-signing him in free agency. Phoenix expected to discuss trades ahead of Paul’s June 28 contract date.

Story at @TheAthletic:https://t.co/5EwV2pFLZ6

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 7, 2023

Soon after Haynes’ Tweet, multiple other reports from Suns sources came out pushing back on the idea he would automatically be waived. Which seemed the logical path the Suns would take.

The second wave of reports says the Suns are exploring options with Paul of which waiving him is just one, with similar reporting from Duane Rankin of the Arizona Republic and Shams Charania of the Athletic, among others. The idea is the Suns would explore trade options — for Paul and Deandre Ayton — but waiving before June 28 could happen, according to the reports.

The Chris Haynes report is false. Suns having discussions about Chris Paul future but have not made a decision as of this time.

— John Gambadoro (@Gambo987) June 7, 2023

So many burning questions about this.

The first question is, why did this leak now? Why wouldn’t the Suns keep their plans quiet through the NBA Draft on June 22 — when trades will be flying around — in case CP3 fits into a deal that worked for them? Another team looking to save money might have been open to a trade. If not, the Suns tell Paul they plan to waive him closer to his deadline. Or they keep him because they line up a Deandre Ayton trade. Or a few other options, like bringing him back.

This leak changes the dynamic and market for Paul.

Which may have been the plan. Paul’s camp and the Suns met to talk on Wednesday (reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski), it’s easy to draw a line after that where Paul’s camp leaked this angle to put pressure toward a buyout, which would be his preferred option because it makes him a free agent. However it went down, this it’s a strategic blunder by the Suns this got out because it shrinks the team’s options.

Another question: If it comes to it, would the Suns outright waive him (saving $15 million in salary next season, but only freeing up $5 million in spendable cap space) or waive and stretch him, which keeps him on the books for five years but at just $3.16 million a season (freeing up a little more than $12 million next season)? The big difference is the Suns can’t re-sign him if he is stretched, they can if he is waived outright.

After he is waived it leaves the Suns with just five players currently under contract for next season: Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne.

The other burning question: Where does Chris Paul play next season?

Assuming he is waived and becomes a free agent (not a sure thing by any means), the obvious landing spot is with the Lakers to play alongside Paul’s good friend LeBron James. CP3 has been wanting to return to his home and family in Southern California, the Lakers are a contender (at least after the All-Star break) in need of a game-manging point guard. Signing Paul to a deal (again for an exception, far less than the $30.8 million CP3 was under contract for) makes LeBron happy, but still leaves the Lakers room to re-sign Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura without going above the second luxury tax apron.

Other teams would be picking up the phone and calling Paul, but the Lakers would be the frontrunners.

Paul, who will be 38 next season, averaged 13.9 points and 8.9 assists per game, and is still a quality point guard, but his skills on both ends showed clear slippage from his All-NBA years. Father time is winning the race. Wherever he plays next season, fans and the front office have to have reasonable expectations, but they are still getting a good point guard and one of the highest IQ players in the league. He would help the Lakers, the Suns and many other teams.

Where he lands is now a much more interesting subplot.

Is a rebuild coming to the Washington Wizards? League executives think so.

By Kurt HelinJun 7, 2023, 2:32 PM EDT

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

The Washington Wizards have been stuck in the NBA’s middle ground for years (at least since 2018), with a push from ownership on down to make the playoffs rather than go through a rebuild. The result was 35 wins last season, 35 the season before that, 25 before that, and you get the idea. A team that has underperformed with Bradley Beal on it.

Is that about to change under new GM Michael Winger? No decision about the short term of the franchise has been made, Winger told Josh Robbins of The Athletic (in a fantastic profile of the man). Big decisions will tip Winger’s hand this summer, with Kyle Kuzma a free agent and Kristaps Porzingis able to opt-out and reportedly looking for an extension.

However, outside the organization, the expectation is that a rebuild is coming in the next couple of years.

Many rival executives The Athletic has polled informally over the last two weeks expect Winger to undertake a full rebuild — if not this offseason, then within the next year.

Asked about his plans for the team, Winger says he’s leaving his options open.

“The raw, unfiltered truth is, I haven’t yet crafted the immediate vision for the franchise,” he says. “There are a lot of talented and high-character players on the team. I want to get to know them a little bit. The construct of a team isn’t just a matter of what is demonstrated on the court. It’s not just a matter of the box score. Team dynamics are personal, and I think that I need to understand those things before hatching an actionable plan. And I know that that’s not necessarily measurable in this moment. But it is the truth.”

If a rebuild is coming, are the Wizards better off re-signing Kuzma and Porzingis to tradable market-value contracts they can move in a year or two? Maybe spend a season running it back, see if this team can stay healthy and what they can do, then start making moves? Or, is it time to hit the reset button now and have a frank conversation with Bradley Beal?

One way or another, the long-postponed rebuild in Washington is coming. It just might not be immediate.

Lillard said he expects to be in Portland next season, so everyone starts trade speculation. Again.

By Kurt HelinJun 7, 2023, 12:53 PM EDT

Steph Chambers/Getty Images

Everyone wants Damian Lillard to leave Portland more than Damian Lillard wants to leave Portland. We trash elite players for being mercenaries jumping teams, then the minute one is loyal, everyone questions why he would do such a thing. Welcome to NBA Twitter.

The latest on Lillard is just more of the same.

Lillard appeared on Showtime Sports The Last Stand with Brian Custer and, when asked if he expects to be a Portland Trail Blazer when next season starts, he said, “I do.” This echoes everything he has said all along, he wants to finish his career in Portland (the man just built a new house there). Lillard then reiterated what he also has consistently said — he wants a chance to compete for it all in Portland. If the Trail Blazers organization decides to go in another direction, then the conversations start.

“We got an opportunity, asset-wise, to build a team that can compete. … If we can’t do that, then it’s a separate conversation we would have to have.”

But Brian Custer leaned into the drama (although he did wait nearly 50 minutes into the pod to get to the topic), and so before asking about Lillard staying in Portland, this is how he phrases a trade question to Lillard:

“Everybody keeps saying Damian Lillard is going to be traded to the Knicks, Damian Lillard’s gonna be traded to the Heat, Damian Lillard should be traded to the Celtics, Damian Lillard’s gonna be traded to the Nets. If one of those trades went through, out of those teams, which one would you be like, that’s not too bad?”

Lillard could have, probably should have shot the premise of the question down. Instead, he’s a good guy and played along and said, “Miami obviously” and praised Bam Adebayo and called him “my dog.” He then said the same thing about Mikal Bridges, now with the Nets (Bridges is a guy long rumored to be a Trail Blazers trade target, maybe with the No. 3 pick in this draft).

All of this is nothing new. Lillard hopes to stay with the Trail Blazers and for them to put a team around him that can compete at the highest levels of the conference. They have young players and the No. 3 pick this year to make a deal for a second star (although some reports say the Blazers are not making Shaedon Sharpe available in any trade, it might take that to get the Nets to even consider a Bridges deal, and even then it may not be enough). If Portland’s front office doesn’t do that this offseason, then Lillard and the franchise need to weigh their options.

That won’t stop the speculation, even from former teammate CJ McCollum.

For now, Lillard wants to be a Trail Blazer and we should celebrate that.

It’s not just Harden, Rockets reportedly eyeing VanVleet, Lopez, Brooks

By Kurt HelinJun 7, 2023, 9:07 AM EDT

Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images

The Houston Rockets are done rebuilding, ownership and management want to shift gears to picking up some wins and making the playoffs. That means using their league-best $60 million in cap space to add difference-making veterans to the young core of Jalen Green, Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr. and whoever they draft at No. 4 (if they keep the pick).

And it’s not just James Harden they are going after, reports Jake Fischer at Yahoo Sports.

…sharp-shooting center Brook Lopez, is a veteran free agent on Houston’s radar, league sources told Yahoo Sports.

There will be no shortage of players on the market connected to the Rockets between now and the opening of free agency June 30… The Rockets, though, are prioritizing adding a proven table-setting point guard, then looking to acquire upgrades at the wing and center position, sources said. And for that, should Harden ultimately stick with the 76ers, Raptors point guard Fred VanVleet has often been linked to Houston as a secondary option who could perhaps slot into the team’s lead ball-handling role.

On the wing, the Rockets do hold an interest in sharpshooter Cam Johnson, sources said, although Brooklyn personnel has indicated the Nets’ plan to match any realistic offer sheet for the restricted free agent, who was part of the franchise’s return for Kevin Durant. Dillons Brooks, last seen as Memphis’ starting small forward, is another Rockets target, sources told Yahoo Sports, and appears to be a more realistic candidate to join Houston this summer.

There’s a lot to digest there.

Milwaukee is facing some hard decisions as their championship roster is getting old and expensive fast, with the restrictive new CBA’s second tax apron looming. As Fischer notes, the Bucks are expected to extend Khris Middleton, who is owed $40.4 million next season (player option), and Jrue Holiday is extension eligible soon. Lopez will demand a big salary, he finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and is a floor-spacing big who averaged 15.9 points per game last season. The Bucks would struggle to win without him, but at age 35 how will that contract age?

A lot of teams are eyeing Fred VanVleet and Toronto wants to keep him, he will have options. A lot of teams are watching Cam Johnson as a restricted free agent, but the Nets like him as part of their future and are not expected to let him walk. Dillon Brooks will not be back with the Grizzlies as a free agent, and for all the drama he is an elite on-ball defender and energy player who could help the Rockets.

Houston needs the James Harden domino to fall, then they can see what they have left to spend elsewhere. But one way or another, that will be a very different roster next season.

Here is more on the Suns

Here is more on the Wizards

Check out more on the Trail Blazers

Check out more on the Rockets