Wizards’ owner Ted Leonsis likes NHL-style hard salary cap. Must like lockouts, too.

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Leonsis_Wizards.jpgUPDATE 7:31 pm: NBA Commissioner David Stern tried to contain any damage that came from Leonsis (plus hit Leonsis with a $100,000 fine for talking about the CBA, all done within a few hours, just so you know Stern is not messing around):

“We’re negotiating and that was one of our negotiating points,” Stern
told the Associated Press, “but collective bargaining is a negotiating
process, and that was not something that Ted was authorized to say and
he will be dealt with for that lapse in judgment.”

4:23 pm: Washington Wizards and Capitals owner Ted Leonsis went through the ugliness of the NHL lockout that cost the league an entire season — and set the sport back considerably in public opinion. Check the television ratings.

But Leonsis seems to like what came out on the other side of that, enough that he thinks the NBA should go down the same road. He said as much meeting with a Virginia business group today, as reported by Fanhouse:

“In a salary cap era — and soon a hard salary cap in the NBA like it’s in the NHL — if everyone can pay the same amount to the same amount of players, its the small nuanced differences that matter,” Leonsis said.

Because Leonsis is not officially authorized to speak regarding the ongoing NBA labor negotiations, he refused to expound on his remarks when asked to clarify after his speech. But he did note that he is a huge fan of the NHL’s system, praising it and noting that it is a good one that works fairly.

“It’s working,” he said. “The teams are very, very competitive. There is no way that big markets teams can outspend small market teams. So when the season starts everyone thinks their team can compete for the Stanley Cup.”

Two thoughts here.

First, the NBA Players Association is not going to take a hard cap — not when the owners just sold $100 million more in season tickets than they did a season a go. After a year where the overall league revenue was up. If you want a hard cap you’re in for a long, drawn out, ugly fight.

Commissioner David Stern has countered that teams had more expenses to get that revenue up. They had to discount tickets and hire more sales staff, for example. My thought — welcome to the recession. At my favorite restaurant down the street from me, the owner is surviving and doing pretty well but he has to give away more meals now, market more and smarter, and generally work harder for a little less. The NBA is no different. Suck it up and don’t complain about it.

Secondly, the NHL salary cap is not the simple solution you may think.

As of this year, NHL players will have a salary cap set based on 57 percent of “hockey-related income.” Which is almost identical to the percentage of Basketball Related Income the NBA players get right now. It’s divided up differently (and the NBA’s pie is larger), but the percentage is the same. If the NBA used that model, the salary cap would likely be much closer to or higher than the luxury tax line now.

Also, some sites keep talking about the $40 million cap the NHL had when it came back from a strike. That was 2005-06 season. This year, the cap is $59.4 million with a salary floor of $43 million. As Joe Yerdon from our own ProHockeyTalk told me, a lot of teams are now complaining the must spend more than they could spend at all just a few years ago. Not all NHL teams are raking in money.

In the NBA’s case, whatever system is in place will need much better owner revenue sharing. And don’t for a second think all the owners are on the same page with that.

Also, if fans think you get a deal out of this, think again — NHL ticket prices now are higher than they have ever been.

One final note on all this — the NBA is having a renaissance of popularity. The Lakers/Celtics finals followed by what happened in Miami this summer vaulted the sport up the popularity ladder to Jordan era levels.

A lockout that costs games kills that. Fast. Dead. The NBA will lose the casual fan it is getting back now, and it will be 10 times harder to get them back. And then everybody’s revenue goes down.

Warriors vs. Bucks or Raptors betting favorite to be NBA Finals matchup

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Who will we see in the NBA Finals come June?

The West looks cut and dried — if the Warriors are healthy, it’s hard to imagine any other team in that conference giving them too much trouble.

The East? That’s wide open. A good case can be made for Boston, Toronto, Philadelphia, or Milwaukee finding their way in. (For a more detailed breakdown, listen to the latest PBT Podcast where Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports and myself break down the East in more detail.)

The bookmakers over at BetOnline put together these odds on potential Finals matchups, and after the first four options the odds get pretty long.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Golden State Warriors 9/2
Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors 9/2
Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors 5/1
Philadelphia 76ers vs Golden State Warriors 5/1
Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors 28/1
Brooklyn Nets vs Golden State Warriors 33/1
Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets 40/1
Milwaukee Bucks vs Houston Rockets 40/1
Philadelphia 76ers vs Houston Rockets 40/1
Toronto Raptors vs Houston Rockets 40/1
Charlotte Hornets vs Golden State Warriors 50/1
Detroit Pistons vs Golden State Warriors 50/1
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors 50/1
Orlando Magic vs Golden State Warriors 66/1
Washington Wizards vs Golden State Warriors 66/1
Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder 80/1
Milwaukee Bucks vs Oklahoma City Thunder 80/1
Philadelphia 76ers vs Oklahoma City Thunder 80/1
Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder 80/1

A few quick thoughts on that list:

• Interesting that the Sixers and Celtics are just a little behind the Bucks and Raptors in the minds of the bookmakers.

• I don’t know that I’d have Houston in front of Oklahoma City as the second-best option in the West. Not this season. The Thunder have the defense and star power to do playoff damage.

• If you’re thinking about putting money on Washington or Orlando to make the Finals — against anyone — just donate that money to charity instead. That way it will do some good.

Likely No. 1 pick Zion Williamson leaves Duke-North Carolina game with knee injury

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Zion Williamson will probably be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA draft.

He’s a generationally good prospect. The rest of this draft also looks relatively weak.

In fact, Williamson has such a stranglehold on the top pick, some have suggested he sit out the rest of his freshman season.

His injury during Duke’s game against North Carolina tonight will only heighten those calls.

Duke:

Hopefully, Williamson is OK.

And hopefully, the system changes. The NCAA is a cartel in which schools conspire to cap compensation for athletes at a scholarship plus some expenses. In a free market, Williamson would earn far more.

Unfortunately, it probably can’t be both. If Williamson escapes this without major injury, the status quo will likely endure.

But, if this injury even allows him to play again this season, it might be a warning shot that causes him to sit until he can enter the NBA draft.

Again, I hope he’s healthy enough to make that decision for himself.

Jayson Tatum guarantees Celtics will win 2019 NBA championship

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Friday morning, Jayson Tatum guaranteed the U.S. team would beat the World team in the Rising Stars game that night. The U.S. team won.

So, Tatum was asked Saturday morning whether he wanted to guarantee anything for that night. He guaranteed he’d win the Skills Challenge. He won.

So, then ESPN’s Rachel Nichols asked Tatum whether he wants to guarantee anything else. And he really let it ride.

Tatum:

We’re going to win the Finals this year. February 16th, mark it. Jayson Tatum says we’re going to win the Finals this year.

Obviously, Tatum wasn’t going to pick against Boston. But this wasn’t that. He could have easily avoided such a grand proclamation.

Instead, even if he were just caught up in the emotion of an All-Star Saturday Night victory and taking the interview especially seriously, Tatum put a little more attention and pressure on the Celtics.

I’m not convinced that’s what this team needs.

Kristaps Porzingis reportedly gave Knicks wish list of trade destinations: Nets, Clippers, Heat, Raptors

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Mavericks owner Mark Cuban said Kristaps Porzingis will sign long-term with Dallas this summer, and Porzingis he was on the same page.

But he will be a free agent. Restricted, but a free agent, nonetheless.

Porzingis’ exit from the Knicks provided a clue about where he’d want to go if he explores leaving the Mavericks.

Marc Stein of The New York Times in his newsletter:

The four teams Porzingis had on his wish list of trade destinations were the Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Miami Heat and Toronto Raptors, according to two people with knowledge of the list who were not authorized to discuss it publicly.

Porzingis had little leverage to get to any of these teams. Because he’ll be a restricted free agent, the Knicks or any team acquiring him would retain immense team control over him.

The Nets and Clippers project to have cap space this summer. The Heat and Raptors don’t.

But even if Porzingis signs an offer sheet elsewhere, Dallas will will likely match it.

Still, Porzingis will become an unrestricted free agent someday – 2020 in the unlikely event he accepts his qualifying offer or a future year if he signs a multi-year deal this summer. It’s probably best to file away this list until then.