What's in a draft bust?

11 Comments

0302_baylor.jpgAmong the 2010 draft class, there will be stars. There will be successful role players with long, fruitful careers. There will be early risers, late bloomers, movers, shakers, and minimum salary makers. And of course, there will be the busts.

The bust is perhaps the oddest of all draft day phenomena. It’s essentially a product of user error; every available prospect is laid out in front of a GM — or owner, or coach, or whoever calls the shots for any particular team — and it’s their responsibility to make the right pick. It’s a damn near impossible task in some instances, but such is the nature of the draft and the biz. That’s fine. No one should expect any decision-maker to live a mistake-free existence, particularly when there are countless subjective criteria built into the process. GMs are going to make mistakes, regardless of their knowledge, talent, and savvy.

Still, the key word is responsibility. If everything goes to hell, managers and coaches are often the ones to start falling on their swords. It’s simply the cost of the power that they wield in team-building, and because there are 30 franchises out there vying for the exact same prize, the body count is unsurprisingly high.

The oddity isn’t that managers are held accountable for who they select (or don’t), but that too often the players themselves are. Expectations are rather high for players selected early in the lottery, so much so that the typical response to their failures is anger and ridicule. That pretty much ignores the fundamental problem: even though some drafted players fail by their own devices, the rest are only put in a position to do so by the managers that chose them. It’s not Darko Milicic’s fault that the Pistons made him the No. 2 pick in the 2003 draft. It’s on Joe Dumars. Or maybe Chad Ford, I get a little fuzzy there.

Either way, there are clear instances in which a player was derailed due to their own destructive behavior or lack of technical improvement. Yet there are so many more where a GM simply failed to determine a player’s true talent or worth, and that has little to do with the player themselves. The 2010 Draft seems like it will be as good of an example as any, as some of the class’ decent complementary pieces were chosen way too early.

Wesley Johnson is a great place to start. He did well for himself at Syracuse, but is there anything in his repertoire that seriously suggests Johnson could be a game-changing force in the pros? He’s athletic, fairly efficient, and does more than score. I get that. Versatility is fun, and Johnson has a lot of the talents you’d love to see in a player. But that schtick doesn’t mean he’ll be able to thrive against NBA-caliber competition. There’s a lot to like about Johnson but not a lot to love, which doesn’t bode well for him as the No. 4 overall pick. Wesley is who he is and David Kahn blew it.

Ekpe Udoh’s selection by the Warriors at No. 6 is even worse. Udoh won a lot of people over in the NCAA tournament, but nationally televised success does not make one great. Neither does being a 23 year-old without particularly notable production, size, or athleticism. Ekpe would have made for a terrific mid or late first rounder, but instead he’ll be derided as a lottery guy who couldn’t cut it. It’s a shame for a player as endearing as Udoh, but he is who he is and Larry Riley blew it.

I’m sure that both Johnson and Udoh will go on to have moderately successful careers, but they’ll always bear the weight of this expectation. There will be a note on every player profile in every program, and on the back of every basketball card (they still make those, don’t they?), and it will have nothing to do with them. So thanks for that, Kahn, Riley. What could have been a celebration of two useful, talented players is instead a degradation of their worth and skills, all because of a few itchy trigger fingers.

Joel Embiid playing, starting for 76ers in Game 4 in Brooklyn

Getty Images
Leave a comment

Philadelphia can take a commanding 3-1 series lead over Brooklyn with a win on Sunday.

The Sixers will have Joel Embiid in the paint for that game.

Embiid, battling a sore knee, has averaged 22.5 points and 12.5 rebounds a game, and he’s been a defensive presence, but he has not been his same, explosive self. He has missed some bunnies around the rim and just has not been right. It’s clear watching him.

Still, Philly is better with him on the court (as long as the aggressive Ben Simmons still shows up). With him in the paint and a quick end to the series, Philly may be able to get some rest for Embiid before the second round. But Brooklyn will not make that easy on Saturday or the rest of the way.

Missouri’s Jontay Porter announces he will enter NBA Draft

Getty Images
Leave a comment

Jontay Porter — the younger brother of Denver’s Michael Porter Jr., who did not play all season as he recovered from back issues — was impressive as a freshman, the one season he played at Missouri. He averaged 9.9 points and 6.8 rebounds a game (mostly off the bench), showed a shooting touch from three, he plays a high IQ game, and at 6’11” he has NBA size and a strong frame.

But since then Porter has been a story of injuries. A lot of them. He did not play this past season after tearing the ACL and MCL in his right knee back in October. By his own admission he tried to rush back and tore the same ACL again in March.

Now, Porter is declaring he will enter the NBA Draft.

View this post on Instagram

🏀

A post shared by Jontay Porter (@jontayporter) on

Porter has legitimate potential as a stretch five in the NBA, but the knee injuries and questions about Porter’s athleticism (he’s not athletic by NBA standards) makes teams hesitant. That’s why Porter is projected as a second-round pick, a big man with potential but one who needs time to get healthy and develop.

A couple other draft notes:

• Charles Bassey, the 6’11” big man out of Western Kentucky, will test the draft. He is projected as a late second rounder, if drafted at all.

Mike Daum, who averaged 25.3 points and 11.7 rebounds a game this past season for South Dakota State, has entered the draft and signed with Octagon Sports. He needs to impress at combines and workouts to make sure he gets drafted.

• Two European big men, Louis Olinde (6’10” out of Germany) and Aleksander Balcerowski (7’1” center from Poland) both have put their names in the NBA Draft pool. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony announced both of the Euros looking to come to the NBA.

Draymond Green dropped 26 pounds to be ready for playoff basketball

Getty Images
1 Comment

Draymond Green was not himself this season. He averaged 7.4 points per game, the first time he was below double digits during the Warriors run, Green shot just 28.5 percent from three, and he played in just 66 games due to toe and knee injuries. Green was not an All-Star. He had a PER of 12.9, a below average number (while it’s not a stat that takes into account what Green brings, he’s long been above average at least in it). When it came time to talk Defensive Player of the Year, he got mentioned more on reputation than his in-season performance.

Playoff Green has been different: 13 points and 8.7 assists per game, his true shooting percentage is back above average (57.2) as is his PER (the three-pointers are still not falling, however). He’s a force on defense and a playmaker on offense through the first three games of the postseason.

What changed? He dropped 26 pounds in the final couple months of the season to get in playoff shape. Marcus Thompson II has a fantastic story about this at The Athletic. It started with GM Bob Myer confronting Green about his conditioning after the All-Star break.

“If we’re going to win a championship,” Myers said, “you’ve got to get in shape….”

“Yeah, I start this strenuous regimen on March 6,” he told Myers. “It’ll take me like two weeks, maybe like 10 days, to really get to where I need to be.”

Myers replied with a puzzled glance: “Wait, you already knew this?”

Green explained his whole plan. He has a nutritionist guiding his diet, his chef making his meals. The strength and conditioning team had the strategy for him dropping weight while maintaining strength. It turns out, Green knew it was time, too.

Green is the lynchpin for the Warriors in the playoffs. Stephen Curry still provides the gravity on offense and is the guy the system is built around. Kevin Durant is their best all-around player, a guy who is a walking mismatch who can get one-on-one buckets whenever he wants, defends well, and is the two-time Finals MVP for a reason. Klay Thompson is an All-NBA level two-way player.

But it’s Green’s ability to switch on defense, to cover centers bigger than him but keep them in check, and to be an outlet on offense that sets him apart. As does his intensity and energy — he is the Warriors emotional leader.

With DeMarcus Cousins out, Green’s role got even bigger.

Maybe more than all that, Green is playing for his next contract. He is a free agent in the summer of 2020, but the Warriors could extend his rookie deal this summer. Rumors of him being traded bounce around the league (with not every team interested in bringing him in, his skill set is a specific fit), and teams guessing if Green will get a max contract or not. Green wants to get paid, just as the other big three in Golden State have, but he’s the one on the bubble (Thompson is a free agent this summer but the Warriors have said they will max him out, and sources around the league expect that to happen).

Green looks himself for these playoffs, ready to go and earn a three-peat and a place in history.

Then this summer things could get interesting.

Tyronn Lue, Monty Williams reportedly to get second interviews with Lakers

Getty Images
5 Comments

The “let’s get to know each other” first meeting is out of the way.

Now things get serious. Multiple reports have the Lakers conducting second interviews with Tyronn Lue and Monty Williams next week — serious, detailed interviews that will include GM Rob Pelinka and owner Jeanie Buss.

Lue and Williams are considered the frontrunners for the job. ESPN’s Wojnarowski also reports that Juwan Howard will get a first interview next week, although he has a lot of catching up to do in the process.

Lue is the former Laker player and Cavaliers’ coach who led that franchise and LeBron James to a title in 2016. Wojnarowski reported Lue is pushing back on the perception he is LeBron’s coach, saying he will push everyone on the roster. In Cleveland, Lue had the trust of LeBron, and that allowed the coach to challenge his star at points.

Williams is a former Pelicans’ head coach who also has a strong relationship with Anthony Davis. Williams has spent time in the Spurs front office and on the coaching bench for the Sixers and Thunder.

All three candidates have a relationship with LeBron James and would get the star’s thumbs up. Lue was LeBron’s chosen coach in Cleveland, Williams coached LeBron as part of Team USA, and Howard was a former LeBron teammate.