NBA Draft Lottery: Could the NBA's top pick be moved before the draft?

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Thumbnail image for jwall.jpgTeams just do not trade the top pick in the NBA Draft. Doesn’t happen.

It has been 17 years since the NBA’s top overall pick was traded before the draft. The fact is elite talent is just too hard to come by in the NBA, you need elite talent to win big and if you get the chance to draft it you don’t trade it away.

John Wall is an elite talent. In a league where point guard play dominates more and more (because of how the rules are enforced) Wall is going to be a force. In a few years he will be called one of the best point guards in the game. You can build around this guy.

And somebody might trade away his rights.

That’s because a lot of the teams at the top of the lottery food chain are actually set at point guard. They could take somebody else, or they could get a little value for that pick and move down a few spots for someone who really wants Wall.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a 19.9 percent chance at the top spot, but they drafted two point guards last year at fifth and sixth overall — Ricky Rubio, the sensation still playing in Europe and will be for at least another year; and Johny Flynn. What is worse, they have committed to run the triangle offense — a system that does not call for a strong point guard. If the T-Wolves win the lottery, they have some serious decisions to make about what kind of team they want to build and who of the three will be their point guard.

The Wolves could decide they don’t need another point guard and trade the pick. Or they could draft Wall and just start stockpiling point guards like food in bomb shelter.

The Sacramento Kings have a 15.6 percent chance of winning the top pick — and they are set at point guard with Tyreke Evans. The guy who just won the Rookie of the Year Award and averaged 20 points and five assists per game. He is going to be an elite point, and the Kings have committed to building around him. If they get the top pick, you would think they would listen to offers.

Golden State has a 10.4 percent chance of the top pick, and their entire backcourt is overloaded with young players. They have Stephen Curry, the guy who finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting and a guy who stepped into the point guard role last season. They also have Monta Ellis who can run the point.

The bigger problem in the Bay Area is the team is for sale and nobody knows how long that will take, so consequently nobody knows who will be the coach come the fall and what style of basketball will be played. If Don Nelson is running the show, Wall in a three-guard offense can work. But then again, Nelson may sit him. The whole situation there is unpredictable.

If the Nets — the favorites at 25 percent after their horrid 12-win season – win the lottery tonight this talk is moot. They will not trade. But if the top pick and the rights to Wall do fall down the ladder, LeBron James may not be the only player move fans discuss for the next month.

Report: Top draft prospects trying to avoid Kings

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The Kings – with their image as “basketball hell” – struggled to get top draft prospects to work out for them in 2016 and, to a lesser degree, last year.

This year, Marvin Bagley went to Sacramento and declared, “I love it here.”

That differentiated Bagley from Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Mohamed Bamba – to the point the Kings are increasingly expected to draft Bagley No. 2 overall.

Jonathan Givony of ESPN on The Lowe Post podcast:

Who even wants to go to Sacramento? Because a lot of the top guys in this draft are openly trying to avoid going there. Jaren Jackson, Mo Bamba, Doncic – no medical for Sacramento. So, if they’re going to take one of these guys, they’re taking him blindly without knowing, what is this person’s medical status going to be down the road?

The one guy who wants to go there is Marvin Bagley. He actually went out there to work out, and they have his medicals.

He’s the kind of guy that he dreamed of being the No. 1 pick his whole life. And so if he’s not going to go No. 1, then he has to go No. 2.

You earn more money, and it’s prestige thing. And so, he’s been in competition his whole life with DeAndre Ayton, his former teammate. So, DeAndre is going to go one. Bagley is going to go two. We were the first ones to put Bagley at two, and Kings fans were up in arms and said, “Oh my god. There’s no way that Vlade passes on Luka. Can’t see it happening.” And, yeah, that’s the way it’s looking right now. But a lot of things can happen.

Zach Lowe:

It’s at least three or four months now that this buzz has been permeating the world, that Vlade Divac does not like Luka Doncic as a prospect.

The buzz has been so loud and so universal that it’s almost strange. So, it’s either true and Vlade has been telling everyone in the world that he does not like this guy for whatever, does not like him as a prospect, taking him at No. 2, anyway. Or it’s the greatest con job in NBA history.

Givony:

All year, it’s not just Vlade, but also his staff was very openly criticizing Luka, saying he’s not athletic enough. He’s too emotional. He’s not this. He’s not that.

Some of it might be, like we talked about, who wants to go to Sacramento? The fact that Marvin Bagley went to a workout, wore the Kings jersey and did that whole thing, I think that really put him in position to be No. 2, because I don’t know if they’re feeling that same love for Luka.

It’s just not the kind of embarrassment that they want right now. They’re really trying to show people that it’s a new Kings, that they’ve changed. It’s not the same mistakes that they’ve made two, three years ago. It’s a thing of the past. So, that potential embarrassment, I think, of him coming out and saying, “Trade me. I’m not coming to training camp,” that’s enough maybe to steer them into thinking that they shouldn’t take him.

This is hustling backward. The Kings seem to care more about their reputation than the actual things that gave them that reputation in the first place. Those surface-level fixes won’t work.

Want to improve the team’s image? Draft the best prospect available and use him to get good. Attack the substance of the problem.

Sacramento has made many ownership and management missteps that indicate a chaotic culture. But nothing lowers the Kings’ prestige more than their 12-season playoff drought (which is obviously influenced by ownership and management but is far more easily identifiable).

If that best prospect is Bagley, great. But I don’t think it is, and his eagerness to get drafted high to the point he’s embracing Sacramento doesn’t change his abilities as a player.

Fear of Doncic staying in Europe seems to be overthinking. If the Suns draft Deandre Ayton, Doncic would be my choice.

Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe the Kings are right to take Bagley.

But it seems increasingly likely they’ll pick him for the wrong reasons, which only lowers the odds of him actually be the optimal choice.

Sterling Brown’s lawsuit: Police officer involved in tasing/arrest posted on Facebook about getting same chance with J.R. Smith after NBA Finals Game 1

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Bucks guard Sterling Brown said he’d sue the Milwaukee police department over his tasing and arrest last January. The now-filed lawsuit makes the involved police officers look even worse than videos of the incident already did.

Somehow, J.R. Smith and his gaffe in Game of the NBA Finals got involved.

Wesley Lowery of The Washington Post:

Lowery posted the full lawsuit here.

There is a systematic problem where police too frequently trample on the rights of people, disproportionately minorities. Celebrating that intrusion of governmental forces is disgusting and speaks to the mindset that fuels the problem.

A few suspensions won’t fix the problem. Brown’s lawsuit won’t fix the problem.

But, hopefully, it sheds light on the bigger issue and is a step toward a solution. Unfortunately, history suggests the city will settle and just views it as a cost of doing business.

Report: Mavericks targeting Luka Doncic in draft

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It appears increasingly likely the Suns will draft DeAndre Ayton No. 1 and the Kings will take Marvin Bagley No. 2.

So, Luka Doncic – once more of a consensus top-two prospectcould fall.

All the way to the Mavericks at No. 5? They apparently hope so.

Adrian Wojnarowski on ESPN:

Dallas at five, they’re asking themselves, “Can we stay at five and get Luka Doncic, or do we have to move up to get the player?” Because that is the guy they have targeted for the Mavericks.

I doubt Doncic gets past the Grizzlies at No. 4, though I wouldn’t rule it out. The Hawks could even take him at No. 3.

Could Dallas trade up with Atlanta at No. 3 to get Doncic ahead of Memphis? What about swapping picks with the Grizzlies, maybe even taking Chandler Parsons‘ toxic contract (though that’d come with complications)?

This is a common situation. The Mavericks have the No. 5 pick. They want a player most people rate higher than fifth. Many teams want players rated higher than where they’re drafting.

The big question: What will Dallas do about it?

Rumor: Chris Paul telling people LeBron James wants to join Lakers

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Chris Paul is reportedly recruiting LeBron James very hard to the Rockets.

The response?

Stephen A. Smith of ESPN:

According to my sources, several things are happening. A, Chris Paul is telling folks Lebron ain’t trying to come to Houston. He wants to be in L.A. These are things I’m getting through the grapevine. Chris Paul is saying LeBron wants to be in L.A.

That’s quite believable. LeBron reportedly said he doesn’t like Houston as a city, and we know he likes Los Angeles. Lifestyle matters.

But it won’t be the only consideration. LeBron is still in “championship mode,” and the Rockets are closer than anyone to beating the Warriors. Perhaps, Paul can still convince his friend to join Houston.

But it sounds as if Paul recognizes he’s playing from behind – and so are all other non-Lakers suitors for LeBron.