NBA Playoffs: Vince Carter's shot selection not the problem in Game 1 against Charlotte

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nba_Carter.jpgThere are players in this league for whom there is some sort of general consensus. LeBron James is the MVP, Tim Duncan is awesome (but not as awesome as he used to be), Tracy McGrady is not very good. We may not agree on the specifics of those general classifications, but I would say that for the most part, a vast majority of NBA fans have ended up at the same, basic conclusions.

That’s clearly not the case with Vince Carter. VC has never been as polarizing as, say, Kobe Bryant, but he remains a figure whose value and significance are certainly debatable. His place in today’s game can be argued just as his place in history can be.

However, in terms of his unique value to the Orlando Magic this season, there seems to be little room for argument: Vince Carter is the second most important player on Orlando’s roster. When producing at a high level, Carter is the difference between a solid but very beatable Orlando team and the titan we’ll see play tonight. The Magic are a completely different team when Vince is effective (and selective; his shot selection is typically paramount for this team), but as we learned on Sunday night, they’re still capable of winning against lesser playoff opponents on one of his off-nights.

Carter’s line from Sunday reads 14 points on 4-of-19 shooting, which is pretty awful. He attempted more shots than anyone on the team, and almost five times more shots than Dwight Howard, who was being smothered in the post by the Bobcats’ defense. Not exactly Vince’s finest hour, especially when his performance is held up for comparison against that of Rashard Lewis (19 points, 8-of-11 shooting, five rebounds) or Jameer Nelson (32 points, 10-of-18 shooting, six assists, four rebounds).

The easy thing to do on nights such as these are to look at Carter’s stat line and mumble something about Vince being Vince. Some nights you’d be right, and the tape would show Carter chucking up contested jumper after contested jumper. Not on this one, though, as Eddy Rivera of Magic Basketball broke down Carter’s Sunday evening and offers a convenient video featuring each of Vince’s 19 shot attempts (click over to MB to watch):

A vast majority of Carter’s shots were quality looks. Granted, there
were some possessions when Carter should have attacked the basket (as
he did a few times in the game, looking to draw contact and get to the
free-throw line) when he was matched up against Boris Diaw on a switch
instead of settling for jumpers and making life more difficult for
himself but those situations were, surprisingly, few and far between.
Also, it should be taken into account that there were a couple of times
when Carter was given the basketball with the shot clock winding down
and forced to put up some high degree of difficulty shots, which did
nothing but exacerbate his inability to make a shot and further hurt
his stat-line.

It’s so easy to paint players into little boxes, and to say that whenever Kobe’s field goal attempts run high he was being selfish, whenever LeBron’s shooting percentage sags he’s taking too many jumpers, or whenever Dwyane Wade racks up six turnovers he’s just not taking care of the ball.

Rarely in basketball is it ever so simple, and when players do step outside those lines — like when Vince had a miserable shooting night in Game 1 against Charlotte — the most predictable explanation isn’t always (or even usually) the best one. The problem wasn’t Vince being Vince, it was that on this particular night, VC couldn’t buy a bucket with a check made out to “CASH.” This is a case where Carter’s overall line was misleading (and as Rivera pointed out, the shot chart equally so), not because he had some added value in an incalculable aspect of the game, but because the most predictable culprit (Carter’s shot selection) was a red herring.

Rumor: Raptors trying to trade up in draft for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

AP Photo/Ted S. Warren
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The Raptors have major problems in the playoffs annually.

Is a coaching change enough to fix them?

Toronto already fired Dwane Casey and promoted assistant Nick Nurse after a highly successful regular season. Perhaps, major roster turnover could follow.

Marc Stein of The New York Times:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projects to be a late lottery pick. The Raptors have no selections in this draft. So, acquiring one high enough to pick the Kentucky point guard would take plenty.

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are stars. Toronto’s bench is stocked with solid young players. O.G. Anunoby is very promising.

So, the Raptors have pieces to move. The only question how much they’d package for a draft pick.

Toronto already has Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Delon Wright at point guard. But Lowry is 32, and VanVleet will be a restricted free agent this summer. If they really believe in Gilgeous-Alexander, the Raptors should try to get him.

All that said, this is the time of year rumors – both credible and not – fly. So, it’s worth remaining skeptical while still considering the validity of what reputable reporters like Stein convey.

Luka Doncic, Donte DiVincenzo, Jerome Robinson among NBA draft invitees

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Of course DeAndre Ayton will attend Thursday’s NBA draft. The Suns will likely draft him No. 1 overall.

But what about more marginal first-round prospects?

The NBA’s draft invite list is an important tool in judging their stock. The league wants to avoid players sitting in agony until their names are called. So, the NBA works to invite only the prospects most likely to get picked high in the draft.

The full list of invited players (which the league notes is subject to change):

Luka Doncic will go high in the draft, and though how high is still uncertain, his inclusion on this list says nothing about his stock. It just speaks to whether we’ll see him Thursday night. His attendance will depend at least on when Real Madrid’s season ends, though the NBA is apparently confident enough to list him.

Jerome Robinson has climbed draft boards since the season ended. He must be impressing in workouts and interviews.

Donte DiVincenzo is a bit of a surprise selection, as he’s not widely viewed as a first-round lock. Perhaps, the league is looking to capitalize on his popularity stemming from a breakout NCAA tournament championship game.

This will only reinforce the idea Chandler Hutchinson received a promise. Otherwise, he’s a surprise invitee.

Among the top players not attending: Kevin Huerter (Maryland), Jacob Evans (Cincinnati), Troy Brown (Oregon) and Josh Okogie (Georgia Tech). Though they could go higher than players listed here, that says something about Huerter’s Evans’, Browns’ and Okogie’s stock, too.

Report: Rudy Gay opting out of Spurs contract

AP Photo/Nick Wass
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Kawhi Leonard reportedly wants to leave the Spurs, but he’s at their whims.

This doesn’t mean Rudy Gay will depart San Antonio, but he’s taking control of his future.

Chris Haynes of ESPN:

Gay’s option-year salary was $8,826,300.

I doubt Gay, who turns 32 this summer, will draw such a high starting salary on his next contract – though I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. He could likely get a multi-year deal with a higher total value.

Or he could chase a ring elsewhere.

Remember, Gay gave up money to leave the Kings last summer. No matter how much the Leonard situation should make us rethink the Spurs’ culture, San Antonio probably isn’t “basketball hell.” Still, the Spurs clearly don’t look as appealing as they once did, and Gay has shown how much he values team quality.

Gay is coming off a nice season, and San Antonio might try to re-sign him. Danny Green has a $10 million player option for next season, which will swing whether the Spurs have the flexibility for a bigger move this summer.

Report: LeBron James’ camp likes Collin Sexton

AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast
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In 2014, LeBron James tweeted his fondness for Connecticut point guard Shabazz Napier. The Heat traded up to get Napier in the draft, but LeBron left for the Cavaliers that summer, anyway.

Could history repeat itself, this time in Cleveland?

LeBron has already talked up Oklahoma point guard Trae Young, but maybe LeBron and his camp want the Cavs to take a different point guard – Alabama’s Collin Sexton – with the No. 8 pick.

Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com, via Jordan Zirm of ESPN Cleveland:

The Cavaliers should take the best prospect available. Worrying about what LeBron might want makes a mistake only more likely.

LeBron might stay in Cleveland, but as 2014 showed, it won’t be because of a draft pick. If he stays, it very well could be by opting into the final year of his contract. His player-option salary ($35,607,968) is slightly higher than his projected max salary as a free agent (about $35.35 million). If LeBron opts in, the best chance of keeping him long-term is building a better team around him.

That means taking the best prospect at No. 8 or trading the pick for someone who can help LeBron win now. If the top prospect is Sexton, that’s fine. But the Cavs are fare more likely to appease LeBron by getting the pick right in the long run rather than choosing the prospect he wants now.