As the field of 65 shrinks, expect the field of 60, namely the June 26 NBA Draft, to significantly expand.
While the preliminary results still favor the college game, with Greg Monroe vowing to return to Georgetown and Derrick Favors still undecided on another season at Georgia Tech, figure on plenty of influence from agents and their associates prior to the April 25 NBA early-entry deadline.
The pitch will be simple and to the point:
If you wait until 2011, you may not get paid until 2012.
Oh, there most certainly will be a 2011 NBA Draft. Players will be selected. Teams will introduce their selections.
But then, within days of that process, the league also might shut down.
The sense among NBA insiders is that the issue with a potential 2011-12 lockout is not whether it can be averted, but rather how long it might last. A full season certainly is not out of the question.
So underclassmen who bypass this June’s draft could find themselves without the opportunity to earn an NBA paycheck for two years.
Further, by not getting into the league next season, their “rookie clock” also could be reset for an additional season by a lockout, delaying the ability to move off the rookie scale and into free agency or an extension.
Generally, this is when prospects weigh their place in the draft, decide whether giving up a little in 2010 could result in far more in 2011.
Such, apparently, was Monroe’s thinking, after Georgetown’s unexpectedly swift NCAA Tournament demise.
But what underclassmen will have to consider is whether they can afford to go two years without a pro contract.
Next year, there might not even be an issue, unless overseas or minor-league paychecks will suffice. Staying in school in 2011-12 at least might provide a way to stay in shape.
But in terms of fiscal shape, figure on any player on the fence jumping into this year’s pool.
Sink-or-swim time otherwise might not come for two years.