The dunk contest isn’t easy to predict. The last two winners were a 5-9 guard and a 6-10 center, so there’s no one type of dunker that can be expected to win. Sometimes the best dunks come from sheer athleticism, some involve a flash of ingenuity and creativity, and Dwight Howard’s sticker dunk can have both and get a low score anyways.
With all of that being said, here are my favorites to win:
1. Shannon Brown
Brown is an explosive leaper, is just small enough to give his dunks more dramatic effect, and can palm the ball like a softball, which helps him get lots of whip into his dunks. During his high school dunk contest, many people thought he had better dunks than LeBron James, who ended up beating Shannon with a conservative approach. Shannon is also the most buzzed-about contestant in this year’s field, and the “Let Shannon Dunk” movement could help him out when it comes time for the fans to elect a winner.
2. DeMar DeRozan
As everyone saw in last night’s dunk-off with Eric Gordon, DeRozan is an extremely fluid athlete with great ups. He made a reverse between-the-legs dunk look as easy as grabbing the mail, and easily dispatched Eric Gordon. The rookie won the high school dunk contest in 2008, with his best dunk being a tamer version of the off-the-backboard tap dunk Dwight Howard used in the finals of his 2008 NBA Dunk Contest win. DeRozan may have needed a dunk-off to make the field, but he has a great chance to pull off the upset and take the title.
3. Nate Robinson
The conventional wisdom is that the two-time champion might not have much more left in his bag of tricks, and that the novelty of seeing the 5-9 Robinson dunk may have worn off. There’s also been some backlash against the prop-filled, showy approach that Robinson used to win the contest last year. Still, Robinson is a two-time champion and clearly takes the contest very seriously, so he might have something impressive up his sleeve.
4. Gerald Wallace
Wallace is almost definitely the best player in the dunk contest field, but probably a long shot to win the contest. Wallace certainly has the hops to take the trophy, but seems far too apathetic about the contest to have a chance against the guys who have been planning their dunks out for weeks. Of course, Wallace could just be playing mind games.