How will the Cavaliers defend Stephen Curry? Is Kyrie Irving healthy enough to force the Warriors to use Klay Thompson on him?
Kurt Helin and Jenna Corrado these questions – and how the answers affect other matchups in the NBA Finals.
Finally, the NBA Finals are about to tip off.
And we got the matchup most people wanted to see — Golden State vs. Cleveland. LeBron James vs. Stephen Curry. The best player vs. the best team.
It’s prediction time. Here are the calls from the PBT staff.
Kurt Helin: Warriors in six.
Maybe there is a path for the Cavaliers to the title, but their margin for error is gone. Their defense has been better these playoffs but no team has truly tested them and made them move laterally yet (the Hawks only did it for short spurts). That is about to change, and I’m not sure the Cavaliers pass that test. The key for Golden State is their depth — they can keep throwing fresh defenders at LeBron James in the form of Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, and even Klay Thompson for short spurts. Nobody stops LeBron, but they will make him take more jumpers. Will he get enough help from a hobbled Kyrie Irving and friends? I don’t see it.
Brett Pollakoff: Cavaliers in six.
Cleveland is almost a 2-1 underdog to win the series in the eyes of oddsmakers, and with good reason. The Warriors have been dominant in the largest sample size possible, winning 67 games during the regular season, cruising through what was supposed to be a difficult Western Conference in the playoffs, and doing it with the league’s best defense and perhaps its greatest shooter of all time. But I really like the way the Cavaliers have come together this postseason. They seem to be peaking at just the right time, and I believe they have the personnel to challenge the Warriors in every way possible, with LeBron James ultimately being the difference.
Dan Feldman: Warriors in six.
Sean Highkin: Warriors in five.
Assuming Klay Thompson is good to go, the Warriors have a significant health advantage over the Cavaliers. They’re also one of a small handful of teams that actually has the personnel to effectively guard LeBron James. The Cavs have no idea whether Kyrie Irving is going to be healthy, and even if he is, who do they hide him on defensively? There isn’t a weak link in the Warriors’ starting five offensively, and it’s tough to see the Cavs’ defense keeping up its strong performance against an offensive attack this much better than anyone they played in the first three rounds.
When they first met last June (something set up by their shared agent), David Blatt and Steve Kerr found they had a common vision for how the game of basketball should be played — ball movement, spacing, player movement off the ball, playing uptempo. All of it designed to create just a little space, which is all the best players need to make the defense pay. The two became fast friends and got along so well that after a couple of meetings Kerr offered Blatt a seat next to him as an assistant coach with the Golden State Warriors.
But before Blatt accepted, his phone rang. That call ultimately became owner Dan Gilbert and the Cleveland Cavaliers offering Blatt their head coaching job.
Now Blatt and Kerr meet again, but this time as opposing head coaches in the NBA Finals — the first time rookie head coaches have met in the NBA Finals since 1947, the first season the league existed.
However, the pairs’ paths from when they first met to this point couldn’t be much different.
Kerr, patient in taking over for Mark Jackson, got his budding superstar Stephen Curry to buy into all those offensive philosophies he had discussed with Blatt. With the help of lead assistant Alvin Gentry (who will take over as the head coach in New Orleans after these Finals), Kerr built a thoroughly modern NBA offense around Curry and a variety of versatile weapons. The Warriors had the second best offense in the NBA, won 67 games and have been the best team in the Association since the season tipped off. Kerr was a serious candidate for Coach of the Year.
Blatt’s path changed dramatically just a couple weeks after he took the job when LeBron James decided to return to Cleveland — this went from a rebuilding project to a team that could win the title instantly (especially with the addition of Kevin Love). Blatt’s offensive system had to bend to the weight of the NBA’s star system — and that process was not fast and not always pretty. Blatt took criticism at every turn (deserved or not), it seemed everything that went wrong was on him, everything good was on LeBron. The offense struggled some early until the Cavaliers went with something more conventional and comfortable for LeBron and Kyrie Irving. After LeBron James’ mid-season sabbatical, the Cavaliers’ became an offensive force with those conventional looks. From the All-Star Game through the end of the season, the Cavs had the third best offense in the NBA scoring 108.9 points per 100 possessions (trailing only the Spurs and Warriors).
Both teams are in the Finals because of their defense. Again the Warriors have been phenomenal on that end all season. Meanwhile the Cavaliers have started to finally peak on that end in the playoffs (and especially since Tristan Thompson replaced the injured Kevin Love).
What will be most interesting these playoffs is how the two coaches — the two friends — will probe and test those defenses.
Kerr will use the depth and versatility of his offense to find weaknesses in that Cavalier defense. One matchup to watch early is whomever Kyrie Irving is guarding — Irving is not 100 percent, and there is nowhere to hide a player defensively against the Warriors. If he starts out on Stephen Curry, well, Curry will test him both off the dribble and keeping up with him off the ball. Same with Klay Thompson. Maybe the best bet is to hide Irving on Harrison Barnes, but he is another guy who moves incredibly well off the ball, and one who has the size and strength to score on Irving inside.
Golden State also is a team that makes opponents pay for ball watching — and key Cavaliers will do that. Specifically J.R. Smith and LeBron, both of whom could end up trying to track Klay Thompson at times — lose him and the result will be three Warriors points.
Finally, in the regular season the Cavaliers defense — even after the additions of Timofey Mozgov and Iman Shumpert — struggled to move laterally well if the ball switched sides quickly. Good passing would lead to good shots against Cleveland. However, no team has exploited that in the postseason — the Celtics and Bulls were not really built to do so, and the Hawks team that shared the ball to 60 wins didn’t show up for the postseason. Golden State will be a real test of how far Cavaliers defense has come.
On the other sideline, Blatt’s European roots have shown at times in these playoffs, both in good and bad ways.
The most talked about instance led to criticism. In Europe it is common on key late-game possessions to have your best passer — even if it’s your best player — take the ball out of bounds, finding the open man. With the score tied 84-84 in Game 4 against Chicago, and just 1.1 seconds on the clock, Blatt called for LeBron to take the ball out of bounds. LeBron overruled him. LeBron called his own number, which ended up being a step-back corner three to win it for the Cavaliers. After the game, it was LeBron who told the media how that play came to be, reinforcing the idea in the minds of some that he was the real guy in charge. He may well be.
But Blatt has also made decisions — ones influenced by his European roots — that have worked brilliantly for Atlanta. Because there is no real star system in Europe coaches will simply go with the player they think is best, regardless of contract, which is how James Jones has been on the court and playing well instead of guys like Mike Miller in the postseason.
Blatt also has had strong defensive game plans. He looked at a star-less Atlanta team — one that had shot the three ball well most of the season but was not the same by the time of the Eastern Conference Finals — and decided to dare Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap, and basically any Hawk not named Kyle Korver to beat them from three. The Cavaliers went under picks and stayed back. The January Hawks would have carved up that defensive strategy, but these were not the same Hawks. They couldn’t take advantage.
Blatt will need a different defensive strategy this round (I don’t recommend going under picks against Curry), but he has his team peaking at the right time. And he has LeBron’s endorsement (at least publicly). Kerr’s advantage is he has more pieces on the chess board, more and more versatile players he can use to find matchups that work — and he has done that with adjustments each round that the opposing coach simply could not counter.
However the series ends, Blatt and Kerr will hug it out as friends. That hasn’t changed since they first met last June. It’s just everything else since then that has been different.
The summertime NBA rumor season is here. Even if there are a few games left to play (just a little thing like the NBA Finals with LeBron James and Stephen Curry).
Kevin Love says he will stay in Cleveland, but does he mean it?
Are the Nets going to try and move Deron Williams and Joe Johnson?
Could the Dwyane Wade posturing with Miami lead to him skipping town?
Jenna Corrado and I get into all of it in this PBT Extra.