Tag: NBA lockout

Derrick Williams

Video: Talking rookie of the year with Chris Sheridan

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Chris Sheridan of Sheridanhoops.com and I were on NBC SportsTalk (6 p.m. Eastern every day on Versus, but I don’t need to tell you that) and the twitter question of the day was about Rookie of the Year. Personally, I’m putting my money on Derrick Williams (an athlete who can finish running the floor next to Ricky Rubio) but Sheridan had an interesting response that might interest Knicks fans.

Also, below we talk and debate the CBA a little, who won and who lost, plus some of the effects of it. Which are a tad hard to predict right now.

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Jeff Van Gundy warns you: It won’t be pretty come Dec. 25

Denver Nuggets v Los Angeles Lakers

It’s going to be sloppy. There are going to be missed passes and non-existent defensive rotations. There are offensive sets that will fall apart into isolation basketball.

No summer workouts followed by a condensed training camp with just two preseason games is just not enough time to make things run smoothly.

Don’t take my word for it, listen to former coach and current ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy, who coached the Knicks during the 1999 lockout and talked about it on KTAR in Phoenix with Doug and Wolf (via Sports Radio Interviews).

“Well I think just like we saw in 1999, I think initially you’re gonna see a product that is not what you’re accustomed to seeing. I think Greg Popovich with the Spurs always says this with his team, you can’t skip steps in your preparation for a game or within a game and it’s the same thing now. What we’re basically asking players to do is skip steps and still be good because most every team now uses the summer extensively and then in September they use that month as a pre-training camp and the month of October is 28 days of practice and eight preseason games. There’s a build-up of chemistry, conditioning, system, and all those things that need to be installed and the repetitions needed to be good. Now we’re saying in two weeks we’re gonna cram in four months and then go at it. Anybody who is surprised that the play will not be high quality I think is just kidding themselves on what they need to do to be playing at your best in a highly competitive game.”

Things will get better as the season wears on. But this is going to be the kind of season that players love and coaches hate — lots of games and not a lot of time for practices. It’s an advantage (especially early) for teams that have had their core together in the same system for a while.

By the way, if you want to read how Van Gundy isn’t exactly sure what is going on with LeBron James, read the rest of the interview.

Don’t go blaming the lockout when injuries pile up

Los Angeles Lakers v Dallas Mavericks
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Starting Dec. 9 when training camps open, guys are going to get injured. And when it happens you are going to inevitably hear an announcer or that fool down bar from you drinking Bud Light say, “That’s because of the lockout.”

No, it’s not.

While it seems intuitive, it just doesn’t work that way. A guy spraining his ankle or injuring his knee could have happened at any point — whether it was working out or playing in the Chinese Basketball Association — because those things just happen. It wasn’t the lockout, it was bad luck. If anything, players may have saved wear-and-tear on chronic injuries, those could be less of an issue (although the condensed schedule will not help).

Don’t take my word for it. Will Carroll — the injury expert at Sports Illustrated — has studied NBA injuries in depth and in a post at The Point Forward he blows up the lockout-induced injury.

Traumatic injuries are random in when they occur, but predictable in how often they occur, according to a proprietary study I did for an NBA team two years ago… The gist of the study is that certain events make a player more likely to be injured traumatically and that traumatic injuries predict chronic ones. Players have a greater chance of suffering a traumatic injury if they persist in doing certain athletic activities over a long period.

While I can’t give you the details on the study, one such activity is jumping. Yes, jumping. It puts a strain on a player’s knees, ankles, hips and back. Players land wrong or land on someone else’s foot. It turns out the traumatic injuries are just the inevitable buildup of odds rather than a purely random occurrence. It’s Russian Roulette with a really big cylinder.

Which brings us back to the lockout and injuries. There’s simply no evidence that the lockout or even just a time away from the paternalistic embrace of a team increases the risk of injury. In the NFL, the lockout was widely believed to be problematic…. The general injury numbers have continued to stay in the normal range all season long.

But what about those nine guys in the NFL who injured their Achilles in the first weeks of the NFL season? Last season with full camps there were eight of those in the same time frame. Basically the same number.

So when your favorite player goes down, go ahead and curse the basketball gods. Just don’t blame the lockout.

Billy Hunter outlines labor deal, steps remaining in memo

NBPA Meet To Discuss Current CBA Offer
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You have questions… but mostly they revolve around finding a way for your favorite team to trade for Dwight Howard or maybe Rajon Rondo.

NBA players have questions about the new NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement, too. Theirs mostly revolve around, “When can we get back to work and get paid? And how much are we going to get paid?”

Billy Hunter tried to explain both the deal and the process to the players in a memo obtained by Sam Amick of Sports Illustrated.

As for the timing, first the players have to vote to reform the union (remember the union formally dissolved to make way for the antitrust lawsuits against the league). That process should have started Tuesday, Hunter says in the memo. Once that happens the details of the CBA will be hammered out between the two sides.

Hunter says the players will get to vote on the new CBA next week. With training camps and free agency set to open next Thursday, you can bet that gets done early in the week.

Then Hunter gets around to explaining the money.

Over the course of the 10-year agreement, collective player salaries and benefits will increase from $2.17 billion in 2010-11 to more than $3 billion by the end of the deal. If revenues exceed modest growth, we expect that collective player salaries will likely grow to over $3.5 billion. The average player salary will approach $8 million by the end of the deal.

Although players will not receive 57% of BRI as under the 2005 CBA, collective player salaries should experience the same annual salary growth as the last deal.… Nonetheless, thanks to the enormous success projected for the NBA, league revenues should grow so high that our collective annual salary increases will favorably compare to the increases we received under the 2005 CBA. On average, under the last deal, the players received annual collective salary increases of $70 million per season. Under the new agreement… the players will receive collective annual increases averaging at least $85 million each year over the term of the 10-year agreement. Beginning in 2012-13, we expect that collective salaries will increase by more than $100 million per season.

Hunter goes on to explain the challenges of the increased luxury tax but how they were able to maintain some flexibility for teams to spend who are paying the tax. The goal was to allow more player movement despite the tax, he said.

Go read the deal. Not all the players will like it and the memo is certainly Hunter selling it to his constituents. But at the end of the day they are not going to get a better offer and it’s not worth losing more pay to fight over the scraps.

NBA “stretch provision” may mean more bad contracts

Kris Humphries
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We kind of refer to this as the Eddy Curry Rule.

In the NBA labor deal is what is called the “stretch provision,” which will help teams get rid of underperforming players on big deals. It can only be used on new contracts but here is how it works: If you want to get rid of a player you can buy him out then stretch out his contract on your books for double the length of the deal plus one year. For example, if a player is owed $20 million over two seasons and he gets waived, the team can stretch him out so his deal so on the official salary cap ledger he only costs them $4 million a season for five seasons.

But that is going to lead to some funky bidding, suggests Chris Sheridan at Sheridanhoops.com. He uses the upcoming free agency of Kris Humphries as an example.

Team A is willing to give Humphries a three-year contract starting at $8 million. With 4.5 percent annual raises, Hump would have an offer of $25.08 million sitting on the table.

But Team B really needs someone to do the dirty work under the boards. So they make Humphries the same offer but with a fourth year added on, fully guaranteed at $9.08 million. Now, Hump is looking at a $34.16 million deal. Which one do you think he’s going to take? Team B’s, of course.

Then, after three years, if Humphries is a $9 million burden on Team B’s 2014-15 cap, they can waive him using the stretch exception, and he will count against the cap for only $3 million per season over the next three seasons.

Teams are going to figure out how to game the system, and this is one way it will happen. And it is easier for larger market teams to have a few of those bought out, stretched out deals (and replace them with new, productive players) than it will be for smaller market teams that can’t go into the luxury tax realm as easily.

With things like the stretch provision and shorter contracts, teams can make the bad decisions of their GMs go away more quickly. The thing is, it leaves those same GMs with more decisions to make — there will be more roster turnover every season and more player personnel moves to be made. For bad GMs that means more chances to screw up, for the best GMs it means more chances to shine. As it was before, good drafting and management will be what wins in the NBA.