Tag: NBA Draft Lottery

Dan Gilbert, Nick Gilbert

For second time in three years Cavaliers win NBA draft lottery


You need some luck if you’re going to build a winner through the lottery (just ask the Thunder). Cleveland has gotten it’s share luck lately. Or, it’s just Karma balancing itself out, if you prefer.

For the second time in three years the Cleveland Cavaliers have got the balls to bounce their way and have won the NBA Draft lottery — they will have the top pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. And just like last time owner Dan Gilbert’s son Nick was up there on the dais in a bowtie bringing the team good luck.

Orland0, which had the best odds in the lottery, came in second. The Washington Wizards had 4.8 percent chance of landing the three spot (the eighth spot was expected) slid up into the top three, a good break for an improving roster that can find some help such as power forward Anthony Bennett out of UNLV.

That means for the second straight year the Charlotte Bobcats (soon to be Hornets again) slid back in the draft. This time they will select No. 4. Tough break for the most depleted roster in the Association… except that they will struggle again and next year’s draft is much, much better.

Last time the Cavaliers selected Kyrie Irving with that top pick, but this time there is nobody that good on the board. They have real needs at the three (Ben McLemore) but the bigger need is in the paint with defense and athleticism, so my first thought is they take Nerlens Noel out of Kentucky. (Yes, he’s out until likely Christmas with a torn ACL, but you don’t draft for this year, you draft for the four after it).

Or, they could trade the pick packaged with other players or the No. 19 pick they also own. Nobody loves this draft so don’t be shocked if they test the waters.

The Cavaliers also fired Byron Scott and brought back Mike Brown to coach the team next year, so he will get a say.

And if you want to know why Cleveland won

Here is the full draft order for this year.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Orlando Magic
3. Washington Wizards
4. Charlotte Bobcats
5. Phoenix Suns
6. New Orleans Pelicans
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Detroit Pistons
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
10. Portland Trail Blazers
11. Philadelphia 76ers
12. Oklahoma City (via Toronto Raptors)
13. Dallas Mavericks
14. Utah Jazz


15. Milwaukee Bucks
16. Boston Celtics
17. Atlanta Hawks
18. Atlanta Hawks (via Houston and Brooklyn)
19. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Los Angeles Lakers)
20. Chicago Bulls
21. Utah Jazz
22. Brooklyn Nets
23. Indiana Pacers
24. New York Knicks
25. Los Angeles Clippers
26. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Memphis and Houston)
27. Denver Nuggets
28. San Antonio Spurs
29. Oklahoma City Thunder
30. Phoenix Suns (via Miami, Los Angeles Lakers)

NBA Draft Lottery odds and draft order

Anthony Davis

You can call it the draft lottery if you want; I choose to call it the Anthony Davis Sweepstakes. The Draw for the Unibrow.

After some coins were tossed and some ties broken, we have the NBA lottery odds and draft order for the June 28 draft. (Enjoy the irony of the future of so many players and franchises taking place in Newark, a city the NBA has deserted.)

Here it is, the first 14 teams have their odds of winning the lottery next to them (the lottery takes place May 30), from 15 on it is the draft order.

1. Charlotte 25%
2. Washington 19.9%
3. Cleveland 13.8%
4. New Orleans 13.7%
5. Sacramento 7.6%
6. New Jersey 7.5% (if not top 3 this pick goes to Portland)
7. Golden State 3.6% (if not top 7 the pick goes to Utah)
8. Toronto 3.5%
9. Detroit 1.7%
10. New Orleans 1.1% (via Minnesota)
11. Portland .8%
12. Milwaukee .7%
13. Phoenix .6%
14. Houston .5%

15. Philadelphia
16. Houston (via New York)
17. Dallas
18. Minnesota (via Utah)
19. Orlando
20. Denver
21. Boston
22. Boston (via L.A. Clippers)
23. Atlanta
24. Cleveland (via L.A. Lakers)
25. Memphis
26. Indiana
27. Miami
28. Oklahoma City
29. Chicago
30. Golden State (via San Antonio)

Lots of lottery odds to be decided last week of season, too

Final Four - Louisville v Kentucky

We keep talking about the teams talking playoffs — who gets home court, Boston or Atlanta, or can Phoenix catch Utah and get the last spot in the West — but there is a tight race among teams who have long forgotten about the playoffs.

A lot of lottery odds are still to be decided this week as teams are bunched up near the bottom. A lot of team’s chances of landing Anthony Davis or taking a risk on Andre Drummond ride on this week.

Make no mistake, the Bobcats will clear and away have the best lottery odds. Thanks to their historically bad 7-56 record, they will have a 25 percent chance at the top spot and Davis. Washington (17-46) will finish second worst and have a 19.9 percent chance of winning the lottery. The matchup of Washington and Charlotte will have no meaning on this, it will just be hard for the rest of us to watch.

But after that it gets interesting.

New Orleans is third worst as I write this at 20-44 but then comes Sacramento (21-43), Cleveland (21-42), New Jersey (22-42) and Toronto (22-42) all within two games of each other. The Warriors are 23-41 and just one game back of the Nets and Raptors. They have a handy chart of all this at the Plain Dealer.

It matters if you are in tank mode — as it stands right now the Hornets would have a 15.6 percent chance of winning the top pick, the Raptors 4.3 percent. The odds drop off pretty steeply, and teams like some of the guys at the top of this draft a lot. Here is how the Plain Dealer describes it with the focus on Cleveland (for obvious reasons).

Losing out could move Cleveland ahead of Sacramento and New Orleans and into the third slot. That would give the Cavs a 15.6 percent chance of picking No. 1 and a 46.9 percent chance of picking somewhere in the top three.

Winning out could drop the Cavs below New Jersey, Toronto and Golden State and into a tie for eighth with Detroit. Losing the tiebreaker would put Cleveland ninth, with only a 1.7 percent chance of drafting No. 1 and just a 6.1 percent chance of picking somewhere in the top three.

There’s going to be some shifting at the bottom of the standings this week, too, and it may be as interesting to watch as at the top. Well, almost.

If NBA loses full season, what might next draft look like?

2011 NBA Draft

It’s one of the more interesting questions around the NBA right now:

If a full NBA season is lost, what do you do about next year’s draft?

It’s not really fair to go with the same order or even same lottery as last year — why should Minnesota be rewarded again for being bad two seasons ago? But is an equal lottery — one team, one ping-pong ball — fair? Should Miami or Dallas have the same shot at the top pick as the Cavaliers?

Teams are talking about it. The league won’t talk about if they are talking about it, but you know that they are.

Over at Sports Illustrated, Chris Mannix points to the system the NHL used when it lost a season.

The NHL elected to use a lottery and cooked up a creative solution. The amount of lottery balls a team had was based on two criteria: the number of times a team made the playoffs the last three seasons and the number of times a team had drafted No. 1 in the previous three drafts. Using that model, four teams (the New York Rangers, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Columbus) each had three of the 48 balls in the bin. Ten teams had two balls and 16 had one.

The result was one of the more compelling drafts in NHL history. While Pittsburgh, which finished the ’03-04 season with a league-worst 58 points, landed the top pick in 2005, there were some surprises. Perennial doormat Florida picked 29th. Ottawa and Vancouver, two 100-plus-point teams in the previous regular season, were slotted ninth and 10th, respectively.

I like the idea of this or some variant — everybody has a shot but the teams struggling recently have the best shot. That seems fair to me. Maybe the Lakers will end up with the top pick and we can start talking conspiracy, but I like the chance of that happening better than saying they or the Celtics cannot get the top pick after a missed season.

Ideally, this entire conversation will be moot. But it seems we’re at the point we should start talking about it.

The value of a mega-weight lottery


Since I spent the morning talking about why we still need to weight the lottery, I thought I’d also touch on one of the union’s other proposals, which could be implemented for the 2012 draft if we get a settlement.

Back in June, the union brought up the idea of giving lottery teams additional picks, Henry Abbott, who is also very much on board the “owners and management who are bad at their job should be punished not rewarded” wagon, thought that it wouldn’t hurt the other teams, or the league, but the fans. No, really.

You know who’d get the short end of that stick? The third party known as the fans, specifically the fans of teams that just simply don’t know how to build a winner. More good draft picks would be a way for the worst GMs and owners to compete without getting any better at their jobs. This is like performance-enhancing drugs for the worst front offices in the league.

As fans, we root for the great competitors, right? Those who do best at their jobs? I’d argue the league ought to encourage teams similarly. If the Clippers didn’t have Blake Griffin walking through that door, as a reward for losing, wouldn’t Donald Sterling have to do some soul-searching about how he runs his team, and maybe come up with a more competitive approach?

via Bribing bad teams with more picks – TrueHoop Blog – ESPN.

Well, for starters, I’m of the opinion that as fans, we root for teams. Ask a Royals fan if he’d be angry if the Royals won a World Series because David Glass is a terrible owner, or if Bengals fans would be mad if they won a Super Bowl because Mike Brown is the devil.  Would Clippers fans be throwing their championship DVDs in a flaming pile next year if Blake Griffin becomes the best basketball player on Earth and the Clippers miraculously win a title? No. They’re just going to be happy that they got to see their team win a title.

The other problem is that there’s an idea that if you win, you must be good at your job. Show of hands, who thought before this season that Michael Heisley and Chris Wallace were good at their jobs? Anyone? Anyone? Oh, and Orlando. Otis Smith traded for Rashard Lewis, knowing that it was far too much in the sign-and-trade, was building around Hedo Turkoglu and hoping Jameer Nelson would become an All-Star (and he did! Kind of.). But the Magic won, so it was perceived they were run well. Now? Not run well. Difference? Two years and converting bad contracts into worse contracts. The Knicks traded everything including 30 percent of the Statue of Liberty to Denver (they actually own the torch). They started Jared Jeffries. They made the playoffs.

In short, a lot of this stuff is completely and totally random. So why would loading up on draft picks for terrible things help things? Because it makes the hole not so deep for teams that can dig themselves out while not necessarily rewarding the truly terrible. One of the biggest problems is that teams have to make it through rebuilding processes and because they don’t want to suffer the horror of a true rebuilding year until it’s absolutely necessary, teams will enter purgatory, sticking with marginal contracts to get a few wins which end up being expensive in terms of moving forward and don’t help them. But they don’t have the talent to get by. But multiple picks gets them out of this. It means that if a team drafts well, they’re not trying to suffer through a painful year, but going forward aggressively. And if that team elects not to go completely young, they can trade the secondary pick for better players. It just means that the hole isn’t quite so deep to get back to contention. Younger, better teams. Fans like those, right? Especially on, you know, their teams?

But what about rewarding those terrible owners like Herb Simon, Dan Gilbert, and Michael Jordan instead of icons of purity like Mark Cuban, Micky Arison, Jerry Buss, and James Dolan?

Here’s a question. Let’s say you don’t live in the state of Minnesota. And let’s say you concur with the vast majority of the known universe that if there’s a way David Kahn can find to screw up a decision, it’s 80% likely that he will. Do you feel that with an extra pick that David Kahn will magically be able to win a title? Or instead, will he do something like, oh, I don’t know, draft two point guards back to back, one of which won’t come over for two years and the other will be a complete bust and he’ll hire a coach whose system specifically limits the impact of the point guard? Oooor, will he do something like draft a combo forward when he’s already made two trades to acquire combo forwards?

How about the Bobcats? They’ve been pretty terrible at the draft (until this year, am I right Biyombo-Cult?). But wasn’t part of the reason they kept trading picks for players was because all the players they drafted were busts? The question here is if you honestly think that the draft isn’t a complete crapshoot a decent percentage of the time. Sean May? 2005 NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player. Averaged a double-double. Emeka Okafor? Part of the reason for the Hornets’ resurgence. Adam Morrison? Naismith Award winner, USPBWA POY award winner, averaged 20 points per game. I’m not saying you don’t have to project how they’ll adapt to the pro game,  saying sometimes it’s impossible, and that if the misses hadn’t destroyed the Bobcats’ chances so much, maybe they wouldn’t have put themselves in the equivalent of a $20k credit card hole.

The Cavaliers are looking at another painful year working with Kyrie Irving and incorporating Tristan Thompson while trying to liquidate the rest of their roster. Another pick, and they’re more easily able to drop their dead weight and can move back towards contention, if they use the players correctly. That’s the key here. You can draft all the players you want, you still have to be able to use them correctly.

The multiple-pick lottery is unlikely to get moved on. The owners are only really interested right now in anything they can suck pennies from. The idea doesn’t fix the BRI split or help with making sure owners can’t lose money. But it’s an interesting idea and one that deserves further consideration than it will warrant in a league-fanbase that continually moves towards the idea of punishing a team that goes through a losing season, despite the idea that every franchise, no matter how well run, eventually goes through one.