Tag: melo to the Knicks

Los Angeles Lakers v Denver Nuggets

With Anthony and Billups, does the Knicks offense really get better?


On a very basic level, the question seems almost absurd.

Does the Carmelo Anthony trade make the Knicks offense better? The gut first reaction is “Of course it does. ‘Melo is a scorer going to a system where they just ask guys to get out and score. Match made in heaven.”

Then you look at the devilish details, and you look at Chauncey Billups… and maybe this isn’t going to be so smooth.

Sebastian Pruiti at the fantastic NBA Playbook notes that what Anthony likes to do and does well — isolation plays and post ups — are things the Knicks don’t usually highlight.

With the Nuggets, Carmelo Anthony was ISO’d 36.9% of the time, while posting up 15.7% of the time.  Anthony has success in both of these spots, posting a PPP of .853 when ISO’d (110th in the NBA), and a PPP of  .941 when posting up (54th in the NBA).

While ISO plays are at least part of the Knicks’ offensive game plan, running ISOs 13.4% of the time, they simply don’t post their players up, only running Post-Up plays 5% of the time.  So right off the bat, the Knicks’ offensive system takes away something that Carmelo Anthony does very well.

Go read the post, because with video evidence Pruiti shows how the Knicks in general — and Stoudemire specifically — shoot themselves in the foot with spacing on isolation and post up sets. Stoudemire in particular tends to shade to the ball, bringing an unwanted defender into the area.

But you just kind of get the feeling Stoudemire and Anthony are going to find a way to coexist. Will Mike D’Antoni adjust his system to fit Anthony (he would warrant it)? There may be rough patches this year, but they will get it figured out, it feels like.

The bigger issue may be at point guard.

I’ll grant you that Chauncey Billups is a better player than Raymond Felton. At this point in their respective careers (Billups is 34) it’s closer than people want to admit, but for the sake of argument we’ll grant that Billups is the better overall player.

But he is not the better point guard for the Knicks offense, where the point guard runs a lot of pick-and-roll, as Pruiti points out.

When coming off of ballscreens, Felton is looking for his teammates than he is his own offense, passing it to a teammate 55.8% of the time (looking for his own offense 44.2% of the time).  Out of those passes, he hits the roll man 43.1% of the time while hitting a teammate spotting up 52.7% of the time….

While Felton is more pass oriented coming off of screens, Billups is more interested in looking for his offense.  According to Synergy, Billups looks for his offense 51.3% of the time when coming off of ballscreens, passing it just 48.7% of the time.  Out of those passes, he hits the roll man 38% of the time and a player spotting up 48% of the time.  The rest of the time (14% to be exact) Billups is hitting cutters.  To me, this means that Billups has a tendency to hold the basketball when coming off of screens (he is penetrating looking for his own offense and a teammate cuts off of that).  A point guard who dominates the basketball when playing the pick and roll game doesn’t work unless you are Steve Nash (Billups isn’t pass first like Nash).

I can hear the New York counter argument now, “Billups is just a placeholder until we get Deron Williams or Chris Paul in a couple years. We can live with him for now.”

We’ll ignore the possibilities of the Knicks getting D-Will or CP3 in two years because there is no way of knowing what the rules will be under a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Does this mean New Yorkers will quietly sit by and not complain about D’Antoni and his offense because he has been given ill-fitting pieces? You going to cut Melo and Amar’e slack because they are not getting the ball when and where they like it.

Of course you’re not. You’re New Yorkers.

The offensive transition in New York well may not be as smoother and effortless as some expect. Still, with all that firepower they will still put up points. Defense? That’s another story entirely.

Can the Knicks play any defense now?

Denver Nuggets v Golden State Warriors

The New York Knicks were not a good defensive team on Monday morning — they were 20th in the league giving up 106.3 points per 100 possessions (via Hoopdata). Because they like to run that means giving up an average of 106 points per game, second worst in the league. They were 21st in the league in opponent field goal percentage (using true shooting percentage, which counts for threes and free throws against).

The Knicks may be a better offensive team now, but they got worse on defense.

I can hear Knicks fans now — “It doesn’t matter, we’re going to outscore everyone just like Mike D’Antoni did in Phoenix.” Wrong. Those Suns teams were certainly not great defensive teams but they were average. Their points given up per possession were middle of he pack in the league, the points per game was just higher because of the pace. People thought they were worse than they really were. (And by the way, was that average defense ever enough to get them even to the NBA finals?)

These Knicks have not been as good at defense as those Suns teams. By Monday night, they got worse.

And that starts with Carmelo Anthony himself, as Peter Vecsey points out at the New York Post.

If they’re stationed at center and power forward and Stoudemire goes to block a shot, Anthony will be abused on the switch to the five.

“Worse yet,” explained a GM, “when ‘Melo plays three, he’s not a willing chaser. All his man has to do is run him through picks and he immediately yells ‘switch.’ “

The Knicks may try to start Ronny Turiaf — a willing defender — at the center spot, but with Mozgov now traded the Knicks are woefully thin at the five spot. Amar’e Stoumemire has been playing some five but he will need to play a lot more of it now.

And from that vantage point Stoudemire will see why the Nuggets liked having Nene, Chris “Birdman” Anderson and Kenyon Martin along their font line — three big bodies to block shots and defend the paint because Anthony could get abused defensively on the perimeter.

One guy that can defend and may get some run — Renaldo Balkman. Knicks fans may laugh, but the guy can run the floor and keep up with the pace, plus he is a pretty good defender at the three. Because he can’t shoot a jumper to save his life — he has yet to make a shot from beyond 10 feet this season according to Hoopdata — he may not get a lot of run from Mike D’Antoni.

The Knicks know they need a big center to defend the rim, they had made inquireies about getting one before. Now that has to be priority number one. They need someone to play defense. Because their new superstar does not.

Carmelo Anthony is gone, who else is Denver likely to move

Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets
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Carmelo Anthony was just the first domino in Denver.

His trade will be followed by host of moves in the next 48 hours — then again next summer — as virtually the entire roster gets overhauled. Denver has from a team that thought it had a chance to push the Lakers to one that is rebuilding in one trade. It’s not quite full-fledged fire sale in Denver, but like a used car sale no reasonable offer will be refused.

There are reports that before the day is out Raymond Felton and Timofey Mozgov will be flipped for more picks and parts. There were rumors that the two would be headed back east to the Nets, but we are hearing conflicting things about that trade. The move was to be basically just for picks, which Denver clearly wants but they may be able to get more for a quality point guard in Felton and a good center prospect in Mozgov. But if not the Nets, somewhere is likely. The Nuggets will be taking a lot of calls for these two.

There is a lot of interest in Nene, the Brazilian center, and half the league has already called the Nuggets about him. Denver wants to keep him and is trying to convince him to sign an extension and be at the heart of their rebuilding efforts, according to Marc Stein at ESPN. But Nene (like Anthony) can opt out of his deal at the end of this season, leaving $11.6 million on the table. He likely could get that as a free agent if not more. Denver may try to work an extension and if that does not work trade him around the draft, not at the deadline. Houston had interest in him before and David Aldridge at NBA.com said that is still a potential landing spot.

There also will be a lot of interest in the skills and tattoos of J.R. Smith. He is a good wing player who can score (11.2 points per game this season), hit the three (34 percent this season) and defend. Plus, he is in the last year of a $6.7 million deal. Unlike Nene, Smith is not seen as part of the long-term future so they will listen to offers. That said, if the Nuggets keep him Smith becomes a good fantasy basketball pickup because he is going to get a lot more shots as Denver tries to figure out where its scoring comes from.

Al Harrington is at the top of the list of guys they want to move — and ones that they may be stuck with. He’s a 31-year-old forward who has four more years and is owed $27.6 million AFTER this season. That is a big, ugly contract, which is why they were desperate to push him into the Carmelo deals. They will look hard for someone to take him — he’s giving Denver 11 points and 5 rebounds a game off the bench — but with that contract there is little interest right now.