Tag: Los Angeles Clippers

Kent Bazemore, John Wall, Paul Pierce

Adjusting for playoff rotations round two: Watch out for the Wizards


Before the playoffs began, I assessed each team based on projected postseason rotation.

Here’s the idea:

In an attempt to get better data, I’ve used nba wowy! to rank playoff teams by regular-season net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating), counting only the lineups that include five players projected to be in the team’s post-season rotation.

This measure is far from perfect. It doesn’t account for opponent or weigh lineups based on how often they’ll be used in the postseason, and it’s impossible to precisely predict a team’s playoff rotation.

The system and straight seeding differed twice for the first round, each method correctly predicting one of those two series:

  • My projection correct: Wizards over Raptors
  • Seeding correct: Bucks over Bulls

We now have more information – both about which players actually made the postseason rotation and how teams fared in the first round.

Here are the new adjusted ratings from full regular season to pre-playoff projection to pre-second round projection (counting first-round games and updating the postseason rotation when necessary):


5. Washington Wizards

  • Offensive rating: 104.3 to 107.7 to 112.3
  • Defensive rating: 103.5 to 101.1 to 100.9
  • Net rating: +0.8 to +6.6 to +11.4

Kevin Seraphin, not Kris Humphries as I predicted, made the playoff rotation. That would have boosted the Wizards’ pre-playoff projection even higher, and they were already a sleeper based on this model.

A sweep of the Raptors supported all the positivity these numbers suggested about Washington.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Offensive rating: 111.7 to 118.2 to 114.2
  • Defensive rating: 106.9 to 101.0 to 105.6
  • Net rating: +4.8 to +17.2 to +8.6

I left James Jones out of my projected playoff rotation. Including him would have weakened the Cavaliers’ pre-playoff adjusted numbers on both ends of the floor, but they still would have ranked second in the league behind the Warriors for adjusted net rating.

Of course, Kevin Love is the big issue headed into the next round. It’s unclear how David Blatt will replace the power forward, but I added Mike Miller and Shawn Marion to the rotation. If it’s just one of the two or neither with no other replacement, the Cavs’ adjusted net rating would be a little better.

Remove J.R. Smith, who’s suspended the first two games though counted as part of the rotation here, and Cleveland actually fares a little better on both ends (with Miller and Marion in the rotation) than it would with Smith.

Still, the picture is clear: Cleveland gets downgraded significantly without Love. Enough to lose to the Bulls? Not according to this model.

3. Chicago Bulls

  • Offensive rating: 107.7 to 108.6 to 108.4
  • Defensive rating: 104. 4 to 103.3 to 102.5
  • Net rating: +3.3 to +5.3 to +5.9

I didn’t include Tony Snell in the Bulls’ playoff rotation, but he stuck, even when Kirk Hinrich was healthy. Had I included Snell, Chicago would have fared slightly better in my first-round projections.

To the surprise of many, the Bucks pushed the Bulls to six games, but that doesn’t give me pause about Chicago. The pre-playoff projection was high on Milwaukee, and though the model actually rated the Bucks above the Bulls, I think the actual result showed the point of the projection. It’s one data point of many, and the lesson should have been that the first-round series could be closer than expected – which happened.

1. Atlanta Hawks

  • Offensive rating: 109.6 to 109.9 to 110.0
  • Defensive rating: 103.8 to 104.9 to 105.1
  • Net rating: +5.8 to +5.0 to +4.9

I incorrectly left Shelvin Mack out of the predicted rotation, though he wouldn’t have changed much.

There were reasons to be concerned about the Hawks entering the playoffs based on this model. A six-game series against the Nets was surprising, because Brooklyn also looked weak. But the first-round matchup also exposed issues with Atlanta this model predicted.

Pick the No. 1 seed to advance at your own risk.


1. Golden State Warriors

  • Offensive rating: 111.7 to 116.4 to 114.7
  • Defensive rating: 101.3 to 95.7 to 99.1
  • Net rating: +10.4 to +20.7 to +15.6

I didn’t include Marreese Speights and Leandro Barbosa in the Warriors’ rotation, but Steve Kerr did. If I had, Golden State’s projection would have suffered on both ends of the floor.

The Warriors are favored here regardless, but I believe if necessary, they can trim their rotation and become even stronger.

3. Los Angeles Clippers

  • Offensive rating: 113.2 to 117.5 to 118.8
  • Defensive rating: 106.3 to 105.9 to 105.4
  • Net rating: +6.9 to +11.6 to +13.4

I mistakenly had Spencer Hawes in the playoff rotation, but it’s clear Doc Rivers doesn’t trust him. Removing Hawes doesn’t make much difference, though it improves the Clippers’ adjusted rating a bit on both ends of the floor.

The big issue: Will Chris Paul be healthy? A playoff rotation without him projects to have an offensive/defensive/net rating of 97.0/108.1/-11.1. That’s disastrous, but it’s a small sample and overly relies on bench-heavy units. Blake Griffin and the Clippers’ other starters just didn’t play that much without Paul.

If Paul is healthy, the Clippers rate better than the Rockets. If not, lower – though it’s not clear just how much lower Los Angeles actually should be.

2. Houston Rockets

  • Offensive rating: 107.5 to 110.1 to 112.3
  • Defensive rating: 104.0 to 101.0  to 101.2
  • Net rating: 3.5 to +9.1 to +11.1

Clint Capela, not Joey Dorsey, was Houston’s backup center – and that would have boosted their pre-playoff projection on both ends of the floor.

For the most part, the Rockets are the steadier team in their second-round matchup. It’s Paul’s health that should determine everything.

Make no mistake, though: Houston’s playoff rotation is good and will require the Clippers to play well to advance.

5. Memphis Grizzlies

  • Offensive rating: 106.2 to 108.0 to 109.1
  • Defensive rating: 102.7 to 102.7 to 102.8
  • Net rating: +3.5 to +5.3 to +6.3

I included Mike Conley in this projection. If he can’t play, the offensive/defensive/net splits go to 107.3/101.6+5.7.

That’s not as large a drop as I anticipated, but it probably doesn’t matter much. The Grizzlies land well behind the Warriors either way.

Watch game clock misfire on final Game 7 play for Spurs, tipping hand

Jamal Crawford, Blake Griffin, Matt Barnes, DeAndre Jordan, Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw,

The clock operator made an enormous mistake at the worst time at the end of Game 7 in what was a slugfest of a series between the Clippers and Spurs.

Chris Paul had just made his amazing shot to put the Clippers up two, but the Spurs had time left on the clock — one second. Gregg Popovich had Borris Diaw inbounding the ball on a play that sent several shooters out to the arc then had Kawhi Leonard roll to the rim for an alley-oop attempt. The referee hands the ball to Diaw, the players start moving and…

Buzzzzzz. The horn sounds to end the game.

Except the ball was still in Diaw’s hands — the clock operator messed up and started the clock when Diaw touched the ball, not a player on the court.

After the game, Popovich said that mistake allowed the Clippers to see what the final play was going to look like, it gave their defenders a heads up. You can see how hot he is in the video. As he should be.

When the actual play ran Matt Barnes read the alley-oop attempt and, playing free safety, came over and swatted the pass away, ending the game. Did he get there a step quicker because he saw the play start once before? Who knows. As Popovich admitted as well after the game, the odds of success on a one-second play at the end of a game are slim to start.

But that screw up certainly didn’t help.

What matters now is that the Clippers win and advance to the second round.

Chris Paul has biggest game with most on line, drops 27 (VIDEO)

Tim Duncan, Chris Paul

There’s a rather silly theory some talking heads — usually not NBA guys — that Chris Paul lacked the internal fortitude and leadership to win big games. That was always crap, but it was out there.

Anyone who says that after Saturday night is a fool.

The Clippers and Spurs faced off in one of the greatest — if not the greatest — first round series ever and it took 27 points from Paul on a night he injured his hamstring to get the win over the Spurs. Paul was nothing short of brilliant, hitting 9-of-13 shots, including 5-of-6 from three. That includes the game winner.

Hobbled Chris Paul, Clippers’ role players do just enough to dethrone Spurs in Game 7

Chris Paul

There is not going to be a better series these playoffs.

As they had for six games before, the Spurs and Clippers went back and forth in Game 7 Saturday night trading blows — there were 31 lead changes and 16 ties. Traditionally Game 7s see players get tight, shooting percentages drop, there are ugly turnovers. This game — while not flawless — was well played by both teams, with big shots and role players stepping up.

But nobody stepped up more than Chris Paul.

With 1:25 left in the first quarter he had to leave the game and went back to the Clippers locker room with what is officially a strained hamstring. But that was not going to keep him out of the game. CP3 had 27 points on 9-of-13 shooting, plus had six assists as he continued to orchestrate the Clippers’ offense.

Then, with the game tied 109-109 and just 8.8 seconds remaining, Paul won the series.

The Spurs had one second to try and tie the game, but a time keeping screw-up tipped the play, and Matt Barnes knocked away an alley-oop attempt to Kawhi Leonard.

The Clippers won 111-109 and take the series 4-3. They advance to face the Houston Rockets starting Monday in Houston.

Paul is so bothered by the hamstring Doc Rivers said he’s not sure if CP3 can play in Game 1 of the next round.

“With two minutes left, Tim Duncan walks up to me and says ‘This is the first round?'” Rivers said. “I was thinking the same thing.”

What had been key for the Clippers all series was getting other guys to step up, not just Paul and Blake Griffin. They got that Saturday night. Matt Barnes had 17 points, a key offensive rebound late, then knocked away the alley-oop attempt on the final play of the game. He played his best game of the series.

Jamal Crawford was the other key. The Clippers had to play a stretch in the first half without Paul due to the injury, and then Blake Griffin sat with foul trouble, yet the Clippers stayed close in an excellent game because Crawford got hot. He had 12 of his 15 points in the first half when the Clippers needed them to stay close to the Spurs.

“Jamal was huge, Matt Barnes was huge for us tonight,” Rivers said. “I thought that (stretch with the bench in the first half) was the difference in the game, that stretch. They could have gotten away from us with our two key guys out of the game, and they didn’t.”

If this is Tim Duncan’s final game, the future first-ballot Hall of Fame went out on a vintage note. Ducan, whose contract is up and hasn’t announced if he plans to return at age 39, scored 27 points on 11-of-16 shooting, plus had 11 rebounds. He was nothing short of brilliant.

Tony Parker added 20 points, and Danny Green finally broke out with 16 plus made a couple amazing defensive blocks.

This was a game with so many wild moments, but maybe the most ridiculous exchange came at the end of the third. First Austin Rivers tried to foul Manu Ginobili in the backcourt (the Clips had a foul to give) but Manu anticipated it and went into a shooting motion and got the call and three free throws. It was a by-the-book call but one where the refs rarely give it to the shooter. That left just a few seconds on the clock, CP3 brought the ball back up the floor and knocked down a ridiculous 28-foot, off-balance, banked-in three. It was the Clippers by one after three, 79-78.

It was like this all game.

The Spurs didn’t lose this game; the Clippers won it.


Chris Paul banks in game winner to lift Clippers past Spurs (VIDEO)

San Antonio Spurs v Los Angeles Clippers - Game Seven

Chris Paul left the game with 1:25 left in the first quarter because he strained his hamstring. For the rest of the game he was hobbled, not nearly as explosive, yet he kept making plays because he’s the smartest point guard in the game today.

Then, with the game on the line — tied 109-109 with 8.8 seconds left — he made the play that dethroned the reigning champions.

Paul got the ball out top with Danny Green on him (Kawhi Leonard was shadowing the hot J.J. Redick), drove right and got close to the paint, put his body into Green then leaned back to create a little space and hit a bank high off the glass that had to arc over the helping Tim Duncan. (The Spurs had a chance to tie but a time keeping screwup tipped the play, and Matt Barnes knocked away an alley-oop attempt to Kawhi Leonard.)

It was going to take a shot like that to win this, the best first-round series in recent memory. It’s fitting it should come from CP3.