Tag: Heat Mavs Game 5

Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks - Game Five

LeBron James was good, but we expect more of him


The Miami Heat did not lose Thursday night because of LeBron James.

But they didn’t win because of him either.

That is ultimately the challenge that lies before him — he cannot be merely good, not if he is to meet the expectations put upon him,  ones he encouraged and welcomed — he needs to be legendary. And he has been nothing of the sort.

A lot of factors went into Dallas taking a 3-2 lead in the NBA finals, a lot of reasons the Heat lost — Miami’s slower rotations defensively early that let Dallas get into a shooting rhythm, Dallas then hitting 13-of-19 from three, and Dallas executed better in the fourth quarter. Again.

Those are not on LeBron, those are on the Miami Heat.

LeBron had a good game, he had an unassuming triple double if that is possible (17 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists). He tried to be more aggressive but Dallas continued to keep a defensive focus on him and so he made the basketball play every high school coach calls for and passed to the open man.

But we expect more from LeBron.

He is the best player walking the planet earth right now. The most gifted. With that we expect him not to be good in big games, we expect him to absolutely dominate. To impose his will and lead his team to victory. When Dwyane Wade got injured we expected LeBron to take over, to dominate the game in a way we have come to expect superstars to do.

He did not.

LeBron is being measured against our expectations of him, against the memories left us by other greats. That is a nearly impossible standard to live up to, but that is the price of his incredible gifts.

Right now, all great players are measured against Michael Jordan. A guy who, when faced with a team floundering in the finals, took over to put on heroic performances. In the last two seasons Kobe Bryant, though not as great or efficient a player as Jordan, tried to fulfill that archetype by getting angry, playing through pain and willing his team to rings.

In Game 5, LeBron fell well short of that standard. He was not angry dominant. And fair or not, that is the standard he will be measured against.

That can change. His legacy is far from defined. There are two more chances this season (if the Heat are to win) where he could prove greatness and lead his team to a comeback victory and a ring. Beyond that, right now we are at the midpoint of LeBron’s NBA career and to say that this series will define how we think of him in a decade is ridiculous.

But today, right now, LeBron James has not lived up to the expectations before him.

What makes a great dramatic hero — from great literature to a comic book hero — is a person who must grow, be better than even they thought they could be to overcome a resilient and seemingly unstoppable opponent. They must pass a challenge even greater than they expected. That is where LeBron James finds himself heading into Game 6. The chance to become greater than he had expected and to fulfill the destiny that has seemingly been before him since he was a high school sophomore. It’s not really fair to put all that on him, but he has never shrunk from welcoming that challenge. By going to Miami, he invited it.

We’ll see Sunday if right now he is capable of living up to that.

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NBA Finals: Dallas tops Miami in Game 5 with an outlier, but what of it?

Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks - Game Five

The Dallas Mavericks took a 3-2 series lead on Thursday night with a 112-103 win, but their tremendous offense — the propulsive force that allowed them to pull within a single victory of taking the NBA title — was immediately tagged as an outlier, and saddled with all of the negative stigma that statistical improbabilities tend to attract. Dallas won the game, but only because they hit “tough” (NBA speak for low-percentage) shots. Only because the Mavericks converted that which should not have been converted. Only because they defied who they are, and managed to jump outside the curve for a swim in the unsustainable.

There’s no escaping the basis of that very idea; Dallas’ hot shooting was indeed an outlier. Single games are, after all, a playground for the aberrations of small sample size. The Mavericks made 68.4 percent of their three-point attempts and posted a 65.9 effective field goal percentage, numbers far above the expected values for any team in the entire league. Yet there still seems to be a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of the mean — the statistical average to which we expect all teams to regress — in basketball. The Mavericks’ mean shooting averages aren’t the most common outcomes for their performance, but simply their most central. They won’t hit those marks in every game, and may not hit them in any game at all. Averages give only the illusion of stability, and though much of basketball is dependent on skill, effort, and execution, we perhaps underestimate the role of randomness (and by extension, variance) in deciding makes and misses, wins and losses.

“You get hot, you get on a roll, and you can have a night like that,” Rick Carlisle said. “They don’t happen very often. Last time we had a shooting night like this was Game 4 against the Lakers. That’s why you just keep working your game, and that’s why you stay persistent, you keep defending, you keep systemically stepping into shots that are there and you’re going to have some breakthrough games.”

Teams that consistently and effectively work for open shots within their offense will always have the upper hand, but all players and teams are subject to the will of the odds. They’ll have hot shooting games and cold ones, and these occurrences are so common and prominent in sports culture that we’ve developed a corresponding vocabulary. Maybe Jason Terry was “in the zone.” Maybe J.J. Barea was “on fire.” Both seem possible or even likely, but the idea is hardly outrageous, especially considering how poorly both have shot in these NBA Finals.

The Mavericks’ amazing shooting in Game 5 merely moved the needle in a positive direction, away from Dallas’ off-setting 4-of-19 (.211) shooting from outside in Game 4. Lost in the declarations of the Mavs’ overachievement was the fact that prior to Game 5, Dallas’ effective field goal percentage in the Finals was actually down significantly from their overall playoff average. Plenty of that has to do with Miami’s impressive defense, but this kind of performance was overdue in bringing Dallas closer to reasonable expectation. The Mavs didn’t really surge forward with their shooting in Game 5, but were merely getting back on track.

“This was our highest scoring game of the series,” Shawn Marion said. “We were bound to get one easy [offensive] game sooner or later. It was just a matter of when it was gonna happen. We should be due for another.”

Maybe the Mavs are. Regardless, did we not expect a degree of oscillation? Was there really an honest expectation that Dallas would be right in line with their shooting averages every single night, without room for error in either direction? Outliers are inescapable. They help to define mean levels of performance, even as they inherently rebuke them. They show the level of success or failure that a team is capable of, if only in extreme circumstances. Yet when we reduce the sample to a single game, those extreme circumstances are more likely to occur than ever. There is no mitigating volume; this is a singular performance by a particular team in a particular game, and yet many act bewildered at the sight of anything out of the ordinary.

Underneath the incredible magnitude of this contest was just a team shooting over its head for the better part of 48 minutes. In a series this competitive, that alone is enough to tilt things in the Mavs’ favor, but it doesn’t make this outlier different from any other. This particular occurrence is granted import through context, but the numbers themselves are the same as they’ve always been: up and down in an endless and inexact flow between two extremes.