Tag: Clutch Play

Dallas Mavericks v Oklahoma City Thunder - Game Four

NBA Playoffs: Nowitzki closes out Durant, Thunder in Game 4


Shortly after Kevin Durant entered the NBA, he was given the label of the NBA’s Next Great Closer. Everything about him suggests that he should be able to close teams out. He has a quiet confidence about him, is never afraid to shoot the ball, and never seems to break a sweat as he coldly pours in basket after basket.

More importantly, his game looks the part. Like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, the current closer archetypes, Durant is a great athlete with a beautiful jump shot and a natural grace about his game — it’s so easy to picture Durant firing a jump shot over a helpless defender as time expires, which is the image we always associate with “closers” in basketball.

Nowitzki, meanwhile, has never really been seriously considered as a closer. He’s soft. He’s European. He’s a big man. He missed a crucial free throw in Game 3 of the 2006 Finals. He’s never won a ring. Et cetera.

The truth, however, is that Dirk has been perhaps the deadliest closer in the NBA for years, while Durant has had his ups and downs in late-game situations.

This season, the Mavericks were the league’s best team in clutch situations, and Dirk was obviously the biggest reason for that. Nowitzki averaged 42 points per 48 minutes on 62.5% True Shooting in “clutch” situations, and the Mavericks outscored teams by an average of 38 points per 48 minutes when Nowitzki was on the floor in close games.

It should be noted that the Thunder were very good in close games this season as well, as was Durant. Durant averaged 44 points per 48 minutes on 55% True Shooting in “clutch” situations this season, and the Thunder outscored their opponents by 19.6 points per 48 minutes when Durant was on the floor in close games.

However, while Nowitzki has been great in close games for years, the Thunder’s late-game success has been a relatively recent development. Last season, the Thunder were actually outscored in “clutch” situations, and Durant shot only 35.6% in those situations.

This season, with Russell Westbrook and James Harden having emerged as impact players for the Thunder, Oklahoma City was able to get some ball movement late and allow Durant what he does best late in games — make a jumper or drive to the rim off of a pass.

According to Synergy Sports, Durant averages an impressive 1.14 points per possession when he gets the ball in catch-and-shoot situations and .98 points per possession when he gets the ball coming off a screen, but he struggles when he’s forced to be a primary playmaker. Durant averaged .91 points per possession (37% shooting) in isolation, .87 PPP as the ball-handler in pick-and-rolls, and .84 PPP on post-ups.

Throughout the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Thunder’s improved offensive movement and additional playmakers allowed Durant to be successful in the clutch. But on Monday night, Durant was forced to try and do everything himself, and the results weren’t pretty. In the last five minutes of the game, Durant only got three shots up, missed all of them, and committed one turnover and no assists. In overtime, Durant went 0-3 from the field again, and had another turnover without an assist.

Considering the lead the Thunder had with so little time remaining in the game, Durant probably should have been able to get away with a poor clutch performance. Unfortunately for him, Dirk Nowitzki was in the building and in the mood to show why he should be considered one of the best closers in basketball, if not the best.

Nowitzki scored 12 points in the final five minutes of the game, doing his damage with two mid-range jump shot, a shot from the paint, a three-pointer, and three made free throws, two of which tied the game with six seconds remaining. Nowitzki only scored two points in overtime, but he did assist on the Jason Kidd three with 40 seconds to go that ultimately put the Mavericks up for good.

Nowitzki may not be seen as having the “clutch gene” because of his late-game struggles in the finals a half a decade ago and his perceived “softness” (which is more rooted in xenophobia than it is in actual analysis of Nowtizki’s game), but he’s much better suited to succeed in late-game situations than Durant is.

Nowitzki shoots a ridiculous 53.2% in isolation situations, and 54.4% in post-up situations, which usually occur in the mid-to-high post area rather than the low post. Nowitzki’s mid-range jump shot, which he has become an absolute master at setting up, is the best go-to move in the NBA, bar none. Even if the defense knows it’s coming, they have little hope of stopping it, and Dirk has developed a few nifty counter-moves that allow him to score if the defense attempts to overplay the jumper too much. And if you try to play him physical and end up committing a foul, that’s two nearly-automatic points.

No matter how hard teams try to run their offense late in games, things generally devolve into one-on-one play with the paint walled off, and nobody is better in those situations than Dirk Nowitzki, especially not Kevin Durant. The Thunder learned that the hard way in Game 4.

The aesthetics of Durant’s game may mean he’ll still be considered by some to be a be a better “closer” than Nowitzki. However, if the Thunder fail to win the next three games in a row and end up going home early, Durant’s sterling clutch reputation would be a meager consolation prize. Durant is a decade younger than Nowitzki, and has time to improve on his late-game play, but on Monday Nowitzki put aside any doubt that he’s currently on another level than Durant is when it comes to late-game situations.

NBA Playoffs: The Heat outlast the Celtics

LeBron James, Jermaine O'Neal

The first half of Miami’s 98-90 overtime win in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals consisted of two very good teams executing very well. The second half of the game was a battle of wills — the kind of game the Miami Heat weren’t supposed to be able to win against the Celtics. They came out on top anyways, and the Celtics will now have to win three games in a row to avoid an early summer vacation.

Boston held the lead for most of the first half thanks to some crisp ball movement, timely shooting, and an absolutely brilliant performance from Paul Pierce, who put the Celtics on his back with a wide variety of gritty drives to the baskets and jumpers from nearly every spot on the floor. The injured Rajon Rondo wasn’t his usual self, but he was still able to keep the Heat honest by attacking the basket with his one good hand and finding shooters. More importantly, the bench was able to pick up the slack for Rondo, outscoring Miami’s reserves 21-7 on the night. Delonte West in particular continued to play tough defense and hit timely shots — his play has been a hugely pleasant surprise for Boston in this series.

The Heat kept the Celtics from opening up a big lead by staying in attack mode throughout the first half. LeBron James set the tone early by making a layup while absorbing a flagrant foul from Jermaine O’Neal, and the Heat never stopped attacking after that. James and Wade used each other’s aggressiveness to find their own lanes to the basket, and combined to shoot 23 free throws on the night. And after a slow start, Chris Bosh finally got involved by being active in the paint, fighting for every loose ball, and out-toughing Kevin Garnett, who finished the game with 0 offensive rebounds and a 1-10 shooting performance.

The second half was an all-out war. Neither team was able to get much offense going, or get any sort of comfortable lead, although Boston had a few chances to do so. The defenses swarmed, and the offenses got stagnant. There were no fast-break opportunities to speak of, and the teams didn’t seem interested in starting their sets until there were 12 seconds left on the shot clock.

Late in the game, Boston looked to have Miami in a hole with a pair of three-pointers that put the Celtics up three with just over two minutes remaining, but LeBron James was too much for Boston down the stretch. James, whose failures in the clutch made him a constant subject of criticism throughout the season and likely cost him his third consecutive MVP award, was superlative when it mattered most.

James scored 11 of the Heat’s final 13 points in regulation, and scored or assisted on the first two baskets of overtime, which put the Heat up for good. LeBron gave the Celtics a chance to win when he turned the ball over just before the end of regulation, and Bosh and Wade were the ones who put the final nails in the coffin in overtime, but the two-time MVP was the difference between success and failure for the Heat on Monday night.

What does this mean for the Heat? All it tells us is something we should have known long ago: there is not some curse on or inherent flaw in this team that makes it unable to win close games. The Heat can play tough, the Heat can win ugly, and the Heat can win close games against experienced teams. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and the NBA world was reminded of that in Game 4. That goes both ways — the Heat could easily lose the next close game they find themselves in, and that game could be the one that costs them a championship. Heck, they could still collapse, lose Game 5, and have to win another game in Boston to prevent a Game 7.

We don’t know if the Heat will win the next close game they play in. We don’t know if they’ve fixed whatever seemed to ail them late in regular-season close games. All we know is that (unless home-court advantage plays a major role in the Chicago series), the Heat have played in exactly one close game that truly mattered to their season, and they won it. Going forward, that has to give them confidence. Or maybe it won’t. All we can do is wait and see what this insane collection of talent does while they try and get the nine more wins they need to achieve their ultimate goal.