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Gordon Hayward flying up in stature, toward contract conundrum

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Auburn Hills, Mich. – Asked about making an All-NBA team, Gordon Hayward gave a stock answer about focusing on team success. Pressed further, he relented and talked about himself.

“It would be really cool, man. It would be,” Hayward said before a lengthy pause, “something that I don’t think I ever thought I would achieve, for sure.”

And then he went right back into Utah’s team goals.

Hayward better get his head around what making an All-NBA team would mean for him personally, because the stakes are high – and tricky.

The NBA’s impending Collective Bargaining Agreement calls for a new class: designated veteran players. They can receive a starting salary of 35% of the salary cap with just eight or nine years of experience, up from the usual 30% for players in the league that long. To qualify, a player must also meet one of three criteria:

  • Win MVP in any of the three seasons before signing
  • Win Defensive Player of the Year the season before signing or both of two seasons before that
  • Make an All-NBA team the season before signing or both of two seasons before that

With all due respect to Hayward, he isn’t winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year. An All-NBA team is his ticket to a designated-veteran-player extension.

Will he nab one of the six forward slots?

A dozen forwards (or quasi-forwards) were All-Stars this season. Here’s how they stack up in win shares (blue), PER-based Estimated Wins Added (yellow) and Real-Plus-Minus-based wins (green):

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Player WS EWA RPM Wins AVG
LeBron James (CLE) 10.5 18.4 14.9 14.6
Kawhi Leonard (SAS) 11.6 18.0 11.3 13.6
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) 10.6 18.7 11.6 13.6
Kevin Durant (GSW) 11.3 17.0 12.1 13.5
Jimmy Butler (CHI) 10.0 15.6 14.1 13.2
Anthony Davis (NOP) 9.4 18.4 10.2 12.7
Gordon Hayward (UTA) 9.2 12.7 7.8 9.9
Draymond Green (GSW) 7.3 5.8 13.1 8.7
Paul Millsap (ATL) 6.1 7.4 10.9 8.1
Kevin Love (CLE) 5.4 7.7 7.6 6.9
Paul George (IND) 4.9 9.0 6.7 6.9
Carmelo Anthony (NYK) 4.6 9.0 4.8 6.1

LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard are All-NBA locks. After that? It’s wide open.

Kevin Durant put up an awesome season before he got hurt, but he’ll remained sidelined while other candidates help their teams. His candidacy is basically a finished product.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (guard), Jimmy Butler (guard) and Anthony Davis (center) could all slide to different positions. The league places players at the position where they receive most votes. The Bucks call Antetokounmpo a point guard (and a forward), but the NBA considered him a frontcourt player for All-Star-starter voting, which could color All-NBA voters. Butler has primarily been a forward this year, but Dwyane Wade‘s season-ending injury could have Butler closing at guard. Similarly, though Anthony Davis has played center twice as much as power forward this season, his lasting impression will be at forward next to DeMarcus Cousins.

Draymond Green leads the other contenders. He was All-NBA second team last season, a telling marker for him in particular. All-NBA voters recognizing him last year show they appreciate his distinctive skill set, and it remains impressive.

Paul Millsap belongs in the mix, though he rarely gets his just due. George, on the other hand, has more name recognition. If he finishes his up-and-down year strongly, he might actually deserve to be All-NBA.

And then there’s Hayward, who’s averaging 21.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. He carries a huge offensive load while shooting extremely efficiently and protecting the ball – in historic proportions. He’s also playing a major role in one of the NBA’s best defenses.

There are just so many good forwards this season. Hayward can’t bank on anything – even the date All-NBA selections will be revealed.

The league announced a new award show for June 26, which will honor the Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man Award, Most Improved Player and Coach of the Year. Presumably, All-NBA will also be a part of that show, but nothing is definitive.

Waiting that long would give Hayward just three days to decide on his $16,736,710 player option for next season – a far harder decision than meets the eye.

If Hayward doesn’t make All-NBA, opting out is a no-brainer. His maximum salary – and he’s a no-question max player – projects to be more than $30 million.

Then why would Hayward consider opting in?

Another rule says designated veteran players must have eight or nine full years of experience when receiving the higher salary. Hayward is in his seventh year.

So, if Hayward makes an All-NBA team and wants to sign a designated-veteran-player-extension, he must first opt in. He’d earn $16,736,710 next season, his eighth. Then, the monster extension would begin in 2018-19.

Here’s the max Hayward projects to earn by opting out and re-signing (yellow) or signing a designated-veteran-player-extension (green):

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Year DVP extension Opt out, re-sign
2017-18 $16,736,710 $30,600,000
2018-19 $36,050,000 $33,048,000
2019-20 $38,934,000 $35,496,000
2020-21 $41,818,000 $37,944,000
2021-22 $44,702,000 $40,392,000
2022-23 $47,586,000
Total $225,826,710 $177,480,000
Average $37,637,785 $35,496,000

Remember, this choice is available to Hayward only if he makes an All-NBA team. If he doesn’t, opting out is the easy call.

But if he makes an All-NBA team, the decision is complicated.

A designated-veteran-player extension guarantees Hayward more money, but it’s also over more years. If Hayward signs a new five-year contract, he’d almost certainly still earn something in 2022-23. Enough to offset the nearly $48 million difference? I doubt it.

On the other hand, Hayward might be better off entering free agency at age 32 rather than 33 (or 31 rather than 32 if he can get player options in these deals).

A fresh contract would also give Hayward more money up front, a projected extra $14 million next season.

And that’s comparing just these two (seemingly most likely) options. Hayward could opt out, get his big raise next season on a short-term contract and try to make an All-NBA team in a future season to get the best of both worlds. But that’s really betting heavily on himself to maintain this elite standing. He could leave Utah. The Jazz could balk at giving him the full designated-veteran-player max. (Teams are allowed to specify a starting salary between 30% and 35% of the cap.)

There’s so much at play.

Before he reaches that point, Hayward will soon make his first playoff appearance since shooting 6-for-33 as the Jazz got swept by the Spurs in the first round his second year, 2012. The top of the Western Conference is daunting. Otherwise, Utah looks like the type of team poised to make a deep run.

This sets up to be a whirlwind finish for Hayward – through the playoffs, into award season and then to negotiating the contract of a lifetime.

Three Things to Know: Kawhi Leonard is back, but Spurs have work to do fitting him in

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Every day in the NBA there is a lot to unpack, so every weekday morning throughout the season we will give you the three things you need to know from the last 24 hours in the NBA. We’re coming to you a little later in the morning in than usual due to the breaking news about the 2021 All-Star Game going to Indiana.

1) Kawhi Leonard is back with the Spurs, but loss to Mavericks shows they have work to do fitting him in. There were moments when Kawhi Leonard looked like his fearsome self Tuesday night: Tipping a rebound to himself then knocking down a midrange jumper off it, draining a pull-up three in transition, hitting some runners as he attacked off the pick-and-roll. Leonard was back, a bit rusty as one would expect, but had 13 points in 15 minutes against the Mavericks on Tuesday night.

That was the good news. Leonard also showed a lot of rust, as is too be expected, and he didn’t play after midway through the third quarter after he hit his minutes limit near 15.

There’s going to be an adjustment period on offense. Through the first 27 games of the season, everything flowed through LaMarcus Aldridge while he was out there. Gregg Popovich promised Aldridge over the summer they would use him more and in spots where he was more comfortable, but that was easier to do when he was their best player on the floor. Now Aldridge and Leonard — and the rest of the Spurs — have to figure out a new dance. That will take a little time.

The good news is the Spurs racked up so many wins to start the season, they have plenty of cushion to lose a few — like to a feisty Dallas team on Tuesday 95-89, in a game where the Spurs offense looked out of synch for long stretches — and be just fine. As always, Gregg Popovich and the Spurs are looking at the big picture.

2) Young Knicks, Lakers put on a show in Madison Square Garden. Knicks win in overtime. ESPN trained its cameras on the rising stars of the NBA Tuesday night — and those teams have been the most entertaining ones this season. We know that the Warriors and Cavaliers will be playing late into May (and probably June), but both are picking their spots right now.

The Lakers and Knicks are trying to figure it out and get better every night. There’s an energy around teams like those two (and Philadelphia, who we get to in our third thing) that we don’t see from the big guns right now. These teams are just fun to watch, and they put on a real show in Madison Square Garden Tuesday night, a game that went to overtime before the Knicks pulled out the win. There was Kyle Kuzma‘s three to force OT, Lonzo Ball looking more and more comfortable ( 17 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists), Knicks rookie point guard Frank Ntilikina not looking like a newbie with 13 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds, and finally there was a whole lot of Kristaps Porzingis, who dropped 37 points and had five blocks on the night. The end of the game was just back-and-forth entertainment.

The Lakers aren’t making the playoffs, and the Knicks could but likely will not stick around long if and when they do, but during the regular season teams like these on the rise are the fun ones to watch.

3) Joel Embiid dropped 28 and 12 on the Timberwolves, but Game of Thrones theory is more interesting. I think Joel Embiid is right about Game of Thrones… oh, wait, we should probably talk about basketball first for a bit. Embiid is really good at that, too.

Embiid went head-to-head with Karl-Anthony Towns in a showdown of the best young bigs in the game Tuesday, and Embiid came out on top. Towns finished the night with 19 points (6-of-16 shooting) and 16 boards, but Embiid dropped 28 points (also on 16 shots) and had 12 rebounds and 8 assists. Plus, Embiid led his team to the win (with a little help from J.J. Redick‘s 25).

Now on to the important stuff. ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne — a big Game of Thrones fan herself — talked about the HBO cultural phenomenon with Embiid during a car ride interview she did with him.

“I’ve studied the whole show,” he says, and it’s clear to Embiid that Kit Harington’s character, Jon Snow, will not end up on the Iron Throne.

“That’s what everybody thinks is going to happen,” Embiid says. “But the whole show has been that you don’t know what’s going to happen. Jon Snow will not be the king.”

The show seems to be pointing toward some kind of Daenerys Targaryen/Jon Snow power sharing structure when it ends after next season, but Embiid is right in that what the show does is not reward the characters that the audience likes or thinks will do their jobs well. Just ask Ned Stark… well, you could ask him if his head were still attached. There are some serious twists still to come. Personally, I want to see Sansa Stark on the throne with Arya Stark next to her, but that’s not going to happen either. Which is the best part of the show.

Embiid is right — Game of Thrones trolls its fans. And Embiid knows trolling, so I trust he’s right on this.

Report: Indiana to host 2021 NBA All-Star Game

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You knew Indiana was serious about hosting the All-Star Game when it made Larry Bird cram his 6’9″ frame into an Indy Car — built for much smaller men — and drive five blocks down Fifth Avenue in New York to deliver the city’s application directly to NBA Commissioner Adam Silver.

It worked.

For the first time since 1985, the All-Star Game is headed to Indianapolis, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

Adam Silver is in Indiana for a 4 p.m. (local time) press conference where this will be officially announced. It’s done.

Indianapolis can handle this, no problem, it got rave reviews (from media members I spoke to, at least) when hosting the Super Bowl and NCAA Final Four. It also brings the All-Star Game to the coolest NBA building, Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

A number of other cities — Houston, Orlando, and San Francisco among them — had been in the running for the 2021 game.

The 2018 All-Star Game next February will be in Los Angeles. After that, it heads to Charlotte in 2019, then Chicago in 2020. It looks like the game will stay in the Midwest for the following year in 2021.

Kristaps Porzingis went off against Lakers: 37 points, 5 blocks (VIDEO)

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I’d say the Lakers didn’t have any answers for Kristaps Porzingis Tuesday night, but no team has an answer for Kristaps Porzingis when he is on.

And he was on vs. the Lakers: 37 points, 11 rebounds, and five blocked shots. He also hit five triples (on just eight attempts). Check out the video above.

Despite all that it took overtime against an improving Lakers team to get the win for the Knicks.

Report: Lakers asked LaVar Ball to pull back on criticism of Luke Walton

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There’s so much transparent marketing happening with LaVar Ball that it’s often not worth the server space to type up what he says and post it. The father of Los Angeles Lakers rookie Lonzo Ball is so breathlessly unexciting in his pitch for relevance in comparison to the actual happenings of the NBA, the irony of which is not unnoticed here.

Still, Mr. Ball has infrequently stepped out from his professional Uncle At a Barbeque cosplay to criticize the Lakers and coach Luke Walton. Mr. Ball has made it clear he thinks Lonzo should play more often, and in fourth quarters. That hasn’t been productive for either side, and it appears that the team has asked Mr. Ball to pull back on openly criticizing Walton.

According to a report from ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne, the team and Mr. Ball met to discuss their relationship in November.

Via ESPN:

The meeting, which took place within the past few weeks, was called by Lakers president of basketball operations Magic Johnson and general manager Rob Pelinka.

LaVar Ball confirmed the meeting took place, telling ESPN, “It was the best thing, man. Everybody’s going to try to make it an ego thing, like I’m trying to tell them what to do or they’re trying to tell me to tone it down. It’s not about that. It’s about coming together and to get a solution to this problem.

“It may sound crazy to other people, but I really just want the best for Lonzo, and the best for Lonzo is going to be what’s best for the organization. Because if everybody winning, we good.”

“I’m going to say whatever I want to say, however I want to say it,” Ball said. “And they said, ‘LaVar, come and talk to us first.’ So that’s fine too.

“But I am going to say, to plant a seed, ‘Let’s look for this now.’ They may not want to hear that, but it’s going to be successful if you listen to what I’m saying on that fact that I know what it takes for my son to run like this.”

Mr. Ball’s influence on his son is unique, but the team is far more than an avenue for Lonzo to play basketball. Indeed, Lonzo is not even one the best two or three players on the Lakers. The organization needs to function at a professional level and doesn’t need Mr. Ball to achieve that. Sidestepping any Whataboutism in the face of sketchy NBA decisionmaking — Phil Jackson, the Bulls front office, any Billy King trade, Isiah Thomas, etc. — it’s not immediately clear that Mr. Ball agrees.

It’s got to be a hassle for Walton to have to deal with this type of thing. The team started enforcing an existing rule a rule recently that stops members of the media from congregating in the same area where NBA friends and family are after a game, but it’s unlikely that will stop reporters from ambulance-chasing Ball any time soon.

Lonzo has remained in LA, which is exactly what Mr. Ball wanted when his son went to UCLA. The younger Ball has struggled a bit, but he’s part of an energetic young core that’s on the up in a tough conference. Lonzo is even leading the team in assists. But Mr. Ball persists in stepping where he’s unqualified, presumably as a means to continue his guerilla marketing campaign (or perhaps motivated by it). LaVar doesn’t realize his work is done — Lonzo is a Laker — and he should let 16 championship trophies in the No. 2 TV market in the country take it from here.

Instead, Mr. Ball produces the most boring and uninspiring stories week after week. This is the league where major free agents break their legs in the first five minutes of play with their new team, where MVPs sign with the best team of all-time after they’ve already won a championship, and where the best player of all-time gives you a crucial chasedown block in Game 7 of the Finals. Nothing Mr. Ball can do will ever be interesting in the grand scheme of the NBA.

Meanwhile, the Lakers and the New York Knicks actually played a pretty wild OT game on Tuesday. If only that were what we could all concentrate on.