The math is pretty simple: There are still 16 guys on the Team USA roster as they head to New York for a week of training camp and “friendlies.” There can only be 12 guys on the roster when Team USA opens play in Spain for the World Cup on Aug. 30. Four guys have to go.
So who gets cut?
Let’s work this in reverse: Coach Mike Krzyzewski seemed to have an eight man rotation that he likes based on who played Saturday night vs. Brazil. That rotation has Derrick Rose, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Kenneth Faried and Anthony Davis as the starters. (Even if Faried ultimately does not start he seems a lock to make the team now.) After that five Klay Thompson, Rudy Gay and Kyrie Irving got big minutes. Those eight guys seem a lock and are guys who will get regular minutes.
After that Mason Plumlee got 15 minutes at the end of the game and played well (he shot 3-of-3). Chandler Parsons played five minutes, Kyle Korver three and Damian Lillard two.
DeMarcus Cousins did not play but he is a seeming lock to make the roster at this point. Plumlee got minutes to see if he should be the one more big on the roster.
Who was healthy and did not play? Andre Drummond, DeMar DeRozan and Gordon Hayward. All three of those guys have performed well in practice but the fact they didn’t make the court is not a good sign for the future. I expect those three will be cut. (Perry Farrell of the Detroit Free Press sees it the same way for Drummond.)
The fourth cut will come down to Coach K’s thinking. I think Parsons is a lock to stay because he can play as a stretch four and that is needed (he is why Gordon is in trouble, Parsons is a better version of a similar player in terms of positioning).
So does Krzyzewski keep Plumlee to have one more big on the roster to match up better with Spain, and with that cut one of the two shooters in Korver and Lillard, or does he cut the big man and keep the shooters? I don’t think that answer is set yet. That said, my guess is one of the shooters goes. From what I saw in Las Vegas at camp I would guess Lillard, but that is just a hunch.
Nothing is set in stone yet, a good week of practice and games could change the dynamic for Drummond or DeRozan or anyone. But the eight man rotations seems set, and Cousins may join that eight once his knee recovers (he is expected to play in this week’s tune up games).
That leaves everyone else is on the bubble.