How much money Joel Embiid’s injury will cost him

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Though there was conflicting information, I was convinced Joel Embiid would go No. 1 in the draft. He as a top-three lock. That was before his foot injury, of course.

Now, Embiid is in free fall.

I’d guess Embiid still goes in the top three, and I can’t seem him falling below No. 10 at the worst.

But I never would have projected an injured Nerlens Noel would slip to No. 6 last year. And this draft is much deeper, making the risk/reward evaluation less favorable to Embiid. Just to be safe, I’m including the possibility of him falling anywhere in the first round. (If Embiid somehow falls to the second round, his salary would be a matter of negotiation, but that scenario is ridiculously far-fetched).

Rookie-scale contracts are four years – the first two guaranteed and the last two team options. Usually, especially for high picks like Embiid, the options are picked up.

Here’s how much Embiid stands to lose in each guaranteed salary and across the entirety of a four-year rookie-scale deal (counting everything at the standard 120 percent of scale). You can choose your own adventure – starting with whether you believe Embiid would have gone No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 and ending with where you think he’ll fall.

For example, if you believe Embiid would have gone No. 1 and will now go No. 6, you’re projecting a $10,018,983 loss for Embiid in the next four years including $4,554,960 of guaranteed salary. (You also might be Danny Ainge.)

Lost salary from No. 1

Pick Guaranteed Four years
2 $1,186,320 $2,610,531
3 $2,214,720 $4,869,216
4 $3,105,600 $6,830,783
5 $3,876,600 $8,524,817
6 $4,554,960 $10,018,983
7 $5,139,720 $11,304,280
8 $5,654,040 $12,434,776
9 $6,107,400 $13,431,730
10 $6,365,760 $14,000,743
11 $6,610,920 $14,413,809
12 $6,843,720 $14,815,321
13 $7,065,120 $15,202,945
14 $7,275,120 $15,574,192
15 $7,475,160 $15,933,749
16 $7,664,640 $16,376,938
17 $7,845,000 $16,797,215
18 $8,016,240 $17,196,575
19 $8,162,640 $17,537,627
20 $8,286,960 $17,827,018
21 $8,406,240 $18,030,141
22 $8,520,600 $18,226,386
23 $8,630,520 $18,418,058
24 $8,736,240 $18,605,683
25 $8,837,400 $18,787,554
26 $8,918,160 $18,986,475
27 $8,985,960 $19,154,302
28 $8,999,880 $19,187,875
29 $9,016,440 $19,229,006
30 $9,032,760 $19,269,898

Lost salary from No. 2

Pick Guaranteed Four years
3 $1,028,400 $2,258,686
4 $1,919,280 $4,220,252
5 $2,690,280 $5,914,286
6 $3,368,640 $7,408,452
7 $3,953,400 $8,693,749
8 $4,467,720 $9,824,245
9 $4,921,080 $10,821,199
10 $5,179,440 $11,390,212
11 $5,424,600 $11,803,278
12 $5,657,400 $12,204,790
13 $5,878,800 $12,592,414
14 $6,088,800 $12,963,661
15 $6,288,840 $13,323,218
16 $6,478,320 $13,766,407
17 $6,658,680 $14,186,685
18 $6,829,920 $14,586,044
19 $6,976,320 $14,927,097
20 $7,100,640 $15,216,487
21 $7,219,920 $15,419,610
22 $7,334,280 $15,615,855
23 $7,444,200 $15,807,527
24 $7,549,920 $15,995,152
25 $7,651,080 $16,177,024
26 $7,731,840 $16,375,944
27 $7,799,640 $16,543,772
28 $7,813,560 $16,577,344
29 $7,830,120 $16,618,476
30 $7,846,440 $16,659,367

Lost salary from No. 3

Pick Guaranteed Four years
4 $890,880 $1,961,566
5 $1,661,880 $3,655,601
6 $2,340,240 $5,149,766
7 $2,925,000 $6,435,064
8 $3,439,320 $7,565,559
9 $3,892,680 $8,562,514
10 $4,151,040 $9,131,526
11 $4,396,200 $9,544,592
12 $4,629,000 $9,946,105
13 $4,850,400 $10,333,729
14 $5,060,400 $10,704,976
15 $5,260,440 $11,064,532
16 $5,449,920 $11,507,721
17 $5,630,280 $11,927,999
18 $5,801,520 $12,327,359
19 $5,947,920 $12,668,411
20 $6,072,240 $12,957,801
21 $6,191,520 $13,160,925
22 $6,305,880 $13,357,170
23 $6,415,800 $13,548,842
24 $6,521,520 $13,736,466
25 $6,622,680 $13,918,338
26 $6,703,440 $14,117,259
27 $6,771,240 $14,285,086
28 $6,785,160 $14,318,658
29 $6,801,720 $14,359,790
30 $6,818,040 $14,400,682

There is good news for Embiid.

Quality players stand to make much more on their second contracts. If Embiid falls below the developmental wastelands that have been the Cavaliers (No. 1 pick) and Bucks (No. 2 pick), he might be better positioned to excel and command more on his next contract. Quite possibly, that offsets his losses on his first deal.

More importantly, Embiid is taking a healthy approach.

https://twitter.com/JoelEmbiid/status/479993795937718272

How Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza complicate Rockets’ pursuit of third star

AP Photo/John Raoux
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After pairing Chris Paul and James Harden, the Rockets are reportedly chasing a third starPaul George, Carmelo Anthony or someone else.

But Houston parted with significant assets to land Paul from the Clippers. And the Rockets will have a tricky time dealing two remaining players, Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza.

Zach Lowe of ESPN:

Unloading Ryan Anderson to sign Paul outright would have helped Houston keep one of their outgoing guards, but the market for the three years and $60 million left on Anderson’s deal was frigid. Not even the Kings wanted him for free. At least two teams would have demanded two Houston first-round picks in exchange for absorbing Anderson, according to several league sources.

The salary filler probably can’t be Trevor Ariza, by the way. Ariza and Paul are close after years together in New Orleans, and playing with Ariza factored at least a little into Paul’s decision, per league sources. The Clippers had tried to trade for him in prior seasons, sources say. Ariza is also still good at a coveted position, and his Bird Rights will be valuable to a capped-out Rockets team next summer.

Anderson would be dangerous as a stretch four in pick-and-pops with Paul and Harden. Even if he’s overpaid, might be better to keep him than surrender more assets to dump him.

Likewise, Ariza is a nice two-way player and can play small-ball four. There’s a use for him on this team.

But beyond them, Houston is left with Eric Gordon and Clint Capela as movable players. Gordon, with a higher salary and less obvious fit with Paul and Harden, would almost certainly be a key cog in a trade for another star. Capela is younger and more valuable, though the Rockets would probably want to keep him as a defensive anchor.

That might not be possible while trading for a third star, though. Houston can’t even guarantee sending out another first-round pick in a trade after sending a protected first-rounder to the Clippers. (The Rockets could agree to convey a first-rounder two years after sending one to L.A., which would is highly likely to convey next year.) Including Capela in a trade might be the only way to assemble a suitable package.

Even then, Houston would be hard-pressed to surpass an offer from the Lakers or Celtics for George. Plus, if Indiana is rebuilding around Myles Turner, Capela is an awkward fit. That trade might require a third team – causing further complications.

Hoping Anthony gets bought out by the Knicks then signs for the mid-level exception is much simpler – though that route returns the lesser third star.

But Daryl Morey just brought Chris Paul to Houston before free agency even began. Now is not the time to underestimate the Rockets general manager.

Report: Knicks won’t consider Isiah Thomas to run front office

AP Photo/Seth Wenig
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A couple years ago, Knicks owner James Dolan said there was no scenario Isiah Thomas would return to the Knicks.

But Dolan also said a few months ago he’d keep Phil Jackson for the duration of Jackson’s five-year contract.

With Dolan effectively firing Jackson today, could Thomas become the Knicks’ next president?

Marc Berman of the New York Post:

The Post also learned Liberty president Isiah Thomas would not be considered for Jackson’s successor.

It’s sad that this needs to be reported. It’s even sadder that, even if this the Knicks’ plans right now, there are no assurances Dolan holds steady.

Dumping Jackson is a reason to celebrate. But as long as Dolan owns the team, it must be a reserved celebration.

At least the Knicks’ next step won’t include Thomas. Probably.

Raptors promote Bobby Webster to general manager

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TORONTO (AP) — With rumors swirling about the Knicks chasing Raptors president Masai Ujiri, the Raptors have promoted Bobby Webster to general manager.

Webster, 32 years old assistant the youngest GM in the NBA, replaces Jeff Weltman, who left Toronto in May to become president of the Orlando Magic.

A former staffer at the NBA league office in New York, Webster joined the Raptors in 2013 and was named assistant GM in 2016.

He’ll help decide what to offer All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, who opted out of the final year of his contract last month after Cleveland swept Toronto in the second round of the playoffs.

Forwards Serge Ibaka, P.J. Tucker and Patrick Patterson are all unrestricted free agents.

Also Wednesday, Toronto promoted Dan Tolzman to assistant general manager.

The Raptors have posted consecutive 50-win seasons and made four straight playoff appearances.

Jason Williams out 6-8 months after injury in Big3 debut

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NEW YORK (AP) — Former NBA point guard Jason Williams will miss six to eight months after suffering a knee injury in the opening game of the Big3.

Corey Maggette, also injured in the opening week of Ice Cube’s 3-on-3 league of former NBA players, had surgery for a leg injury. There is no timetable for his return.

The injuries were announced Wednesday during a conference call with Cube and Big3 co-founder Jeff Kwatinetz, who also detailed a couple rules changes starting with this weekend’s game in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Games will be played to 50 points, instead of 60, with halftime coming when the first team reaches 25 points. Cube said that would help the four games per day move more quickly.