NBA All-Star James, Anthony, Wade, Bosh and Irving look up at the clock in the fourth quarter of the NBA All-Star basketball game in Houston

Salary-cap gymnastics behind the Heat’s pursuit of Carmelo Anthony

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The NBA just ratified a new Collective Bargaining Agreement that, among other things, limits a team’s ability to acquire multiple highly paid stars.

Yet, the Heat might chase Carmelo Anthony to join LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami.

How can that happen?

There infinite ways the Heat could make room for Melo, but let’s examine a few baseline scenarios. Let’s begin with Miami’s starting position.

Heat’s current 2014-15 situation

Miami has seven players who might be under contract for next season: LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Chris Andersen, Norris Cole and Justin Hamilton.

LeBron ($20,590,000), Bosh ($20,590,000) and Wade ($20,164,000) have early termination options, which are functionally similar to player options. Haslem ($4,620,000) and Andersen ($1,448,490) have player options. Cole’s salary ($2,038,206) is fully guaranteed, and Hamilton’s ($816,482) is fully unguaranteed. The Heat also have two draft picks – Nos. 26 and No. 55.

Hamilton is good as gone. Miami could easily dump Cole and its first-round pick, which comes with a guaranteed salary, without taking back salary. If Andersen and Haslem opt in, I believe the Heat could also trade them without returning salary – perhaps attaching the first-round pick to Haslem as a sweetener if necessary.

Free agents continue to count against the cap, but other than LeBron, Bosh and Wade – who would terminate their contracts in almost any plan –  Miami could easily renounce everyone else.

Essentially, if required to sign Melo, I believe the Heat could fairly easily pare their roster to just LeBron, Wade and Bosh.

There might be some emotional attachment to casting off Haslem and even Andersen and Cole. But remember, Pat Riley practically gave away Michael Beasley in 2010, just two years removed from Miami drafting Beasley No. 2 overall and one year from him making the All-Rookie team, in order to pursue LeBron and Bosh. I think Riley would overcome any internal dilemma based on nostalgia if it meant getting Melo.

So, the rest of this post will suppose the Heat clear their roster to just LeBron, Wade and Bosh.  It also uses the latest projected salary cap, $63.2 million with a $77 million luxury tax, for 2014-15 and predicts the cap will continuously rise by the same amount it’s projected to increase this year.

How much money would everyone sacrifice?

Once Miami’s roster is down to just LeBron, Wade and Bosh – all of whom terminated their contracts in this scenario – cap holds will leave the Heat over the cap. LeBron, Wade and Bosh would each count at 150 percent of their previous salary, and Miami would have nine roster charges (equal to the rookie minimum salary) to reach the minimum roster of 12.

Once LeBron, Wade and Bosh re-sign, though, their 2014-15 salaries would replace their free agent amounts. Then Miami could use its remaining cap room to sign Melo.

Under that scenario – if everyone wants to get paid the same amount, which we’ll call the equality plan – each of the now-big four would make $14,658,494 in 2014-15.

If LeBron, Wade and Bosh re-sign first, they could get higher raises (7.5 percent vs. 4.5 percent) and longer contracts (five years vs. four years) than Melo, so maybe Miami’s original big three would take lower starting salaries and arrange to be on par with Melo over the long run. But for now, we’ll focus on matching salaries only next season.

Of course, $14,658,494 is much less than any of the four could make next season.

Here’s:

  • Max for Melo – both if he stayed with the Knicks or left – and his salary in the equality plan (gold)
  • Max for each  LeBron, Wade and Bosh – they have the same possible max – and their salary in the equality plan (red)

image

Melo 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total
Max if re-signs $22,458,402 $24,142,782 $25,827,162 $27,511,542 $29,195,922 $129,135,810
Max if signs elsewhere $22,458,402 $23,469,030 $24,479,658 $25,490,286   $95,897,375
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,318,126 $15,977,758 $16,637,391   $62,591,769

 

LeBron, Wade, Bosh 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Total
Max if
re-sign
$20,659,633 $22,209,105 $23,758,578 $25,308,050 $26,857,523   $98,133,256
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,757,881 $16,857,268 $17,956,655 $19,056,042   $69,627,847

Melo would be forgoing about $67 million over his max with the Knicks or $33 million over his max elsewhere. LeBron, Wade and Bosh would each be surrendering about $29 million.

For the Heat, this would be a huge bargain. The salary cap would restrict their ability to sign all four players – and there’s nothing Micky Arison could do about it. Essentially, the rules prevent him from spending, so if LeBron, Wade and Bosh want to pursue this plan, they would have no standing to even negotiate for higher collective salaries.

Miami would then have the room mid-level exception ($2,732,000) and minimum contracts to fill its roster. By design, it’s difficult for teams to add salary quickly once they’ve gone under the salary cap.

The luxury tax would be no concern at all.

For a year.

LeBron, Wade and Bosh can get paid again soon

If LeBron, Wade and Bosh re-sign, Miami would retain their bird rights. A key facet of bird rights: A team can go over the cap to re-sign players with the.

However, because free agents continue to count against the cap until signing, teams have a very limited ability to sign outside free agents and then exceed the cap to re-sign their own free agents. Hence, LeBron, Wade and Bosh would have to cut their salaries to make room for Melo this offseason.

But they wouldn’t need to make room for Melo next offseason.

LeBron, Wade and/or Bosh could sign a one-year deal – rather than a five-year deal – with the same starting salary as the equality plan. Then, next offseason, they could re-sign for max contracts – and significant raises.

Realistically, they would sign a two-year contract with a player option. That way, they could still become free agents in 2015 but would have an extra year of salary protection in case they determine their stock had fallen. (Options can only occur in the final year of a contract, so any deal longer than two years would delay getting a new max contract.)

The Heat would not hold Melo’s bird rights for three years, so he couldn’t take advantage of this plan until 2017. He’d likely receive a four-year contract with a player option regardless.

Here’s:

  • Annual salaries for each LeBron, Wade and Bosh in the equality plan and if they opt out as quickly as possible to re-sign for the max (red)
  • Annual salaries for Melo in the equality plan and if he opts out as quickly as possible to re-sign for the max (gold)

image

Melo 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Total
Max if re-signs $22,458,402 $24,142,782 $25,827,162 $27,511,542 $29,195,922 $129,135,810
Max if signs elsewhere $22,458,402 $23,469,030 $24,479,658 $25,490,286   $95,897,375
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,318,126 $15,977,758 $16,637,391   $62,591,769
Equality plan with early opt out $14,658,494 $15,318,126 $15,977,758 $25,093,282 $71,047,660

 

LeBron, Wade, Bosh 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Total
Max if
re-sign
$20,659,633 $22,209,105 $23,758,578 $25,308,050 $26,857,523   $98,133,256
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,757,881 $16,857,268 $17,956,655 $19,056,042   $69,627,847
Equality plan with early opt out $14,658,494 $22,137,516 $23,797,830 $25,458,143 $27,118,457 $28,778,771 $127,290,716

New contract from one signed in 2014 is italicized

Projecting the 2017-18 salary cap – and therefore Melo’s max as a free agent in 2018 – is so difficult this far ahead, I didn’t even bother with how a multi-year max contract signed then would play out over its duration.

In the same vein, though far less turbulent of an estimate, LeBron, Wade and Bosh would be relying on the salary cap making another large jump 2015-16. I think that’s quite possible, but there is risk.

There’s also risk in accepting a one-year or even two-year deal with a player option. If a player gets hurt or struggles for other reasons, he might make less than had he just accepted a five-year guaranteed contract. Remember, I’m examining max salaries under these scenarios. Players aren’t guaranteed the max.

But if this worked, LeBron, Wade and Bosh could sacrifice about $6 million each in 2014-15 and then make similar salaries in coming years to the max possible had they signed this offseason.

Melo would sacrifice about $24 million over the next four seasons. So, if they plan to opt out in a year, it would make even more sense for LeBron, Wade and Bosh to accept lower starting salaries than Melo.

If LeBron, Wade and/or Bosh opt out next summer to seek bigger contracts, that could make this pursuit much more expensive for Arison. Would he go for it?

What about a plan that gets expensive for the Heat owner immediately?

Signing-and-trading for Melo

Miami could also acquire Melo in a sign-and-trade. That would make the apron – $4 million above the luxury-tax line – rather than the salary cap the key threshold. With a project cap of $63.2 million and luxury tax of $77 million, that’s a lot of extra wiggle room – and money to pay a big four.

In a sign-and-trade route, if they each want the same starting salary, LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Melo could each make $18,190,703 in 2014-15. That’s a significant jump from the $14,658,494 they could each make by signing Melo through cap space (especially because raises in future seasons are based on initial salary).

If the big four collectively maximizes its salary in a sign-and-trade scenario, there would be a host of complications. The Heat would have no room to sign anyone other than nine minimum-salary players and couldn’t add any salary in a trade for a year.

Of course, completing a sign-and-trade for Melo alone would be complicated. Miami, New York and several players would have to agree – making this a big longshot.

Essentially, the Heat would have to sign-and-trade their own free agents – other than LeBron, Wade and Bosh, of course – to the Knicks.

All players signed-and-trade must receive three-year contracts, but only the first year must be guaranteed. Fortunately for the Knicks if they want to go this route, they won’t have cap room this offseason anyway, even if they lose Melo. So, taking a guaranteed year of salary should be no problem. The Heat can structure all their outgoing contracts so they’re fully unguaranteed for 2015-16 and 2016-17, allowing New York to waive them and maximize its 2015 cap room.

But Miami can’t just re-sign one free agent to a salary equal to Melo’s and send him to New York. Anyone in a sign-and-trade whose salary increases by more than 20 percent brings up base-year-compensation issues and probably requires a third team to make the deal work.

However, the Heat might have enough free agents to complete a sign-and-trade on their own. (Even if renounced, a team can sign-and-trade its own free agents.) If Miami signs-and-trades Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier, Toney Douglas, James Jones, Michael Beasley and Greg Oden on contracts equal to 120 percent of their 2013-14 salaries, that would be enough to acquire Melo with a 2014-15 salary of $18,190,703 – his equality-plan number in a sign-and-trade scenario.

Of course, those six players must agree to leave Miami for New York. Why would they? The way Chalmers has struggled in the Finals, he might not make $4.8 million elsewhere any other way. Battier could participate and then retire, a way to leave an even stronger legacy in Miami. Douglas, Jones, Beasley and Oden are bit players who probably couldn’t get more money elsewhere. They’re just in the right place at the right time. (If Haslem opts in, the Heat could use him in place of Chalmers. Haslem would have no say in it.)

And why would the Knicks agree? For one, Melo would have to convince them he’s leaving regardless. The Heat would also have to send draft picks to make it worth their while. But remember, if everything else comes together, it’s easy to structure a dual sign-and-trade as not to interfere with New York’s 2015 cap space.

As before, Melo would be subject to a short contract and smaller raises than the Heat’s current big three, but all four players come out ahead of the cap-space model.

Here’s:

  • Annual salaries for each LeBron, Wade and Bosh in the equality plan and if Miami gets Melo in a sign-and-trade (red)
  • Annual salaries for Melo in the equality plan and if he joins the Heat in a sign-and-trade (gold)

image

Melo 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Total
Max if re-signs $22,458,402 $24,142,782 $25,827,162 $27,511,542 $29,195,922 $129,135,810
Max if signs elsewhere $22,458,402 $23,469,030 $24,479,658 $25,490,286   $95,897,375
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,318,126 $15,977,758 $16,637,391   $62,591,769
Equality plan with early opt out $14,658,494 $15,318,126 $15,977,758 $25,093,282 $71,047,660
Equality plan with S&T $18,190,703 $19,009,285 $19,827,867 $20,646,448   $77,674,303

 

LeBron, Wade, Bosh 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Total
Max if
re-sign
$20,659,633 $22,209,105 $23,758,578 $25,308,050 $26,857,523   $98,133,256
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,757,881 $16,857,268 $17,956,655 $19,056,042   $69,627,847
Equality plan with early opt out $14,658,494 $22,137,516 $23,797,830 $25,458,143 $27,118,457 $28,778,771 $127,290,716
Equality plan with S&T $18,190,703 $19,555,006 $20,919,309 $22,283,611 $23,647,914   $86,405,840

New contract from one signed in 2014 is italicized

However, what’s a win for LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Melo is not a win for Arison, at least not directly. Acquiring Melo in a sign-and-trade and filling the team to the hard cap of the apron would give the Heat a 2014-15 payroll of $87 million, including luxury-tax payments. On the hook for so much guaranteed money, they’d likely face the tax annually – and the repeater penalty.

This sign-and-trade plan, though it offers substantially higher salaries than using cap space, can be combined with the opt-out plan to get even more money to LeBron, Wade and Bosh as soon as 2015 and Melo as soon as 2017.

But a sign-and-trade, with all the moving parts, is so unlikely, let’s just stop here.

A compromise

No matter what, LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Melo must collectively compromise to make this happen. That’s the new Collective Bargaining Agreement working.

The document just can’t completely prohibit players from sacrificing salary to build a team as they see fit.

So many variables remain, including what each of the four key players desires, where the cap is set and whether Miami moves its other players. There’s a lot to sort out.

But – scaled up or down depending on other influences – here’s what might work best if LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Melo are committed to making a big four:

  • No sign-and-trade. It’d be difficult, though not impossible, to get everyone else on board.
  • Haslem and Andersen opt out.
  • Miami trades Cole and its first-round draft pick for future picks.
  • Wade signs a four-year contract that starts higher than the equality-plan salary, because he gave up the most money in 2010. It’s the last major deal of his career.
  • Melo signs a four-year contract with a player option that starts higher than the equality-plan salary, because he has the most to gain by signing elsewhere and gets the smallest annual raises. After the third year, he opts out and re-signs to get a higher salary, potentially the max.
  • LeBron and Bosh each sign two-year deals starting below the equality-plan salary with player options. After next season, both opt out and re-sign for five-year max contracts.
  • The Heat re-sign Haslem to the room exception and Chris Andersen and Ray Allen to minimum contracts.

Will it happen? Who knows?

But it’s definitely workable.

Trail Blazers advance to face Warriors after 106-103 victory over the Clippers

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PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Damian Lillard scored 28 points and the Portland Trail Blazers advanced to the Western Conference semifinals by beating the resilient Los Angeles Clippers 106-103 on Friday night to claim the first-round playoff series 4-2.

Portland will open the second round against the reigning NBA champion Golden State Warriors on Sunday.

CJ McCollum added 20 points for the Blazers, who became the first team to overcome a 2-0 deficit since Memphis came back against the Clippers in the first round in 2013.

Jamal Crawford had 32 points and Austin Rivers added 21 points and eight assists despite having 11 stitches above his left eye from a collision in the first quarter. But the Clippers could not recover from injuries to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin in Game 4 of the series.

Los Angeles didn’t surrender easily in the final game, never allowing Portland a double-digit lead.

“We didn’t panic when they put up a fight,” Lillard said.

The Blazers appeared to pull away when McCollum’s 3-pointer made it 98-91 with 4:49 left, but the Clippers persisted. Already plagued by injuries, the Clippers lost DeAndre Jordan to what looked like a sprained right ankle before Los Angeles closed to 98-95 on J.J. Redick‘s jumper.

McCollum’s 3-pointer put Portland up 101-95 with 2:16 left. Again the Clippers clawed back, pulling within 103-101 on Redick’s layup with just under a minute left. Crawford tied it with free throws but Mason Plumlee was fouled by Jeff Green under the basket for free throws to make it 105-103.

Crawford missed a 6-foot jumper and Plumlee made the second of two free throws with 1.5 seconds left for the final margin. Rivers’ 42-foot hurl at the buzzer fell short.

“It’s mixed emotions right now,” Rivers said, his left eye swollen shut. “I’m very sad, I’m very disappointed, but I’m also very proud.”

Portland will face a Golden State team that is dealing with its own injury issue: Reigning MVP Stephen Curry continues to rehab his sprained right knee. There is no official word on when he might return.

The Clippers were ultimately doomed by untimely injuries to their top two scorers.

Paul broke a bone in his right hand in the third quarter of the Clippers’ Game 4 loss at Portland. The Clippers’ nine-time All-Star was averaging 23.8 points and 7.3 assists in the series before he was hurt. He had surgery the next day and the Clippers declared him out indefinitely.

In the same game, Blake aggravated the left quad injury that sidelined him for 41 games this season. He was averaging 15 points, 8.8 rebounds and four assists in the playoffs.

After dropping the first two, the Blazers took a 3-2 lead with a 108-98 victory at the Staples Center on Wednesday night. Clippers coach Doc Rivers tinkered with his starting lineup in the absence of Paul and Griffin, inserting Crawford, Rivers and Paul Pierce.

On Friday, he started Luc Mbah a Moute and Jeff Green, while Crawford and Pierce went to the bench.

“This team had more heart than any other team I’ve coached,” the elder Rivers said.

The Clippers got another scare midway through the first quarter when Austin Rivers sustained a cut above his left eye in a collision with Portland’s Al-Farouq Aminu midway through the first quarter. Rivers returned before the end of the half after getting 11 stitches.

Crawford picked up the slack in his absence and had 22 points in the half. But Lillard and McCollum countered with a combined 25 and the Blazers led 50-48 at the break.

Redick hit a 3-pointer that put the Clippers up 58-53 early in the third. Aminu and Lillard countered with 3s and neither team could push the margin to more than five points.

Rivers’ 3-pointer put the Clippers ahead 77-75 late in the third, but the lead was short-lived when Lillard hit a 3 for Portland. Crawford’s jumper and Jordan’s dunk gave Los Angeles an 81-78 lead.

TIP INS

Clippers: Redick started all six games despite a heel injury that has reportedly bothered him throughout the series.

Trail Blazers: Pro golfer Peter Jacobsen, a Portland native, made three straight free throws for a contest during a first-half timeout. … Toronto FC and U.S. national team forward Jozy Altidore was among the fans at the game.

Austin Rivers gets 11 stitches after elbow to face, returns for Clippers

PORTLAND, OR - APRIL 29: Austin Rivers #25 of the Los Angeles Clippers walks off the court after Game Six of the Western Conference Quarterfinals against the Portland Trail Blazers during the 2016 NBA Playoffs at the Moda Center on April 29, 2016 in Portland, Oregon. The Blazers won 106-103. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
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It wasn’t intentional, Portland’s Al-Farouq Aminu and the Clippers’ Austin Rivers were both going for the rebound, but Aminu’s elbow caught Rivers clean in the eye.

That was nasty.

Rivers required 11 stitches, and after the game looked like Glass Joe after a rough day.

But you have to be impressed — Rivers came back into the game. He finished with 21 points and played hard, but the Clippers fell to the Trail Blazers 106-103 and were eliminated from the playoffs.

Pacers force Game 7 against Raptors with 101-83 win

of the Toronto Raptors against the Indiana Pacers in game six of the 2016 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Quarterfinals on April 29, 2016 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.
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INDIANAPOLIS (AP) Paul George scored 21 points, Myles Turner added 15 and the Indiana Pacers beat the Toronto Raptors 101-83 on Friday night to force a Game 7 of their series.

That will be played Sunday in Toronto, and the winner will advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Indiana scored 18 straight points in the second half to pull away from the second-seeded Raptors, who haven’t won a postseason series since the first round in 2001.

DeMarre Carroll and Cory Joseph each had 15 points for the Raptors.

Kyle Lowry (4 for 14) and DeMar DeRozan (3 for 13) struggled again, and now the Raptors will head home and hear again about their troubled playoff problems: a Game 7 loss at home to Brooklyn in 2014, Washington’s four-game sweep last season and no series wins in a seven-game series. And there 15-year victory drought is the longest active streak in the league.

Indiana trailed by as much as 12 early, never led until early in the third quarter and had to fend off a late third-quarter charge from the Raptors before blowing it open in the fourth.

After Toronto cut the deficit to 65-64, Indiana responded by scoring the last six points of the third and the first 12 of the fourth to take an 83-64 lead.

The Raptors never recovered.

For Indiana, it was a dramatic turnabout.

Three days after blowing a 13-point, fourth-quarter lead, they came out flat. The Pacers struggled to make baskets, struggled to defend and played catch-up the entire first half after Toronto took an 18-6 lead just 6 1/2 minutes into the game.

But once the Pacers got righted, they took control and pulled away.

Indiana rebounded from a 44-40 halftime deficit with a 10-2 run to take its first lead, 49-48 on Ian Mahinmi‘s tip-in with 9:33 left. They extended the lead to 63-55 before Toronto charged back to get within 65-64 in the final two minutes of the quarter.

Indiana scored the next 18 points to seal it.

GOLDEN CROWD

Indiana handed out gold T-shirts to fans at the game and it caused a bit of a stir because the wording on the shirts read: United State of Basketball, We The Gold. It was a twist on Toronto’s motto – We The North. Raptors coach Dwane Casey didn’t seem to mind that Indiana stole the idea. “I know that they have a great home court. You know you’re in Pacers territory because of all the gold shirts,” he said. “But what happens between the lines for 48 minutes is what I’m concerned about.”

TIP-INS

Raptors: The Raptors wound up getting outrebounded 44-40 after dominating the post in the first half. … Jonas Valanciunas had 14 points, Lowry had 10 and DeRozan finished with eight. … Bismack Biyombo grabbed 10 rebounds. … Toronto gave up 20 points on 17 turnovers. … The last time the Raptors led a series 3-2 was in 2014 against Brooklyn. But the Nets won 97-83 on their home court before clinching the series with a 104-103 victory in Game 7 at Toronto.

Pacers: Turner blocked four shots, giving him 19 in the series to break Antonio Davis’ previous franchise rookie record in a six-game series. … Indiana started the second half by making five of its first seven shots. … Actor-comedian Mike Epps, who lives in Indy, attended the game. … The Pacers have won four straight elimination games on their home court.

Heat hang on with Wade’s heroics, force Game 7 vs. Hornets

CHARLOTTE, NC - APRIL 29:  Dwyane Wade #3 of the Miami Heat directs teammates against the Charlotte Hornets during game six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals of the 2016 NBA Playoffs at Time Warner Cable Arena on April 29, 2016 in Charlotte, North Carolina.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
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“It’s a make-or-miss league” has been a worn-out cliche in the NBA for years, but it was never more apt than Friday night. Dwyane Wade, a career 28.4 percent three-point shooter who hadn’t hit a shot from beyond the arc in the calendar year of 2016, knocked down two threes late to help the Miami Heat hold on and beat the Charlotte Hornets, 97-90, to force a Game 7 on Sunday.

Wade finished with 23 points on 10-for-20 shooting along with 6 rebounds and 4 assists to lead Miami, and had a key block in the closing minute to stave off a Charlotte comeback. The Heat held off Kemba Walker‘s 37-point explosion, which kept Charlotte in the game for much of the second half even as they never led in the third or fourth quarters.

Neither team got much out of their benches, and Miami overcame a rough night from Goran Dragic (6-for-17 from the field) and Hassan Whiteside fouling out in just 28 minutes of action. A three by Walker cut Miami’s lead to 90-88, the closest the Hornets got in the second half.

The two teams will now play a Game 7 in Miami on Sunday, with the winner facing the winner of that same day’s Game 7 between the Raptors and Pacers.