NBA All-Star James, Anthony, Wade, Bosh and Irving look up at the clock in the fourth quarter of the NBA All-Star basketball game in Houston

Salary-cap gymnastics behind the Heat’s pursuit of Carmelo Anthony

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The NBA just ratified a new Collective Bargaining Agreement that, among other things, limits a team’s ability to acquire multiple highly paid stars.

Yet, the Heat might chase Carmelo Anthony to join LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami.

How can that happen?

There infinite ways the Heat could make room for Melo, but let’s examine a few baseline scenarios. Let’s begin with Miami’s starting position.

Heat’s current 2014-15 situation

Miami has seven players who might be under contract for next season: LeBron, Wade, Bosh, Udonis Haslem, Chris Andersen, Norris Cole and Justin Hamilton.

LeBron ($20,590,000), Bosh ($20,590,000) and Wade ($20,164,000) have early termination options, which are functionally similar to player options. Haslem ($4,620,000) and Andersen ($1,448,490) have player options. Cole’s salary ($2,038,206) is fully guaranteed, and Hamilton’s ($816,482) is fully unguaranteed. The Heat also have two draft picks – Nos. 26 and No. 55.

Hamilton is good as gone. Miami could easily dump Cole and its first-round pick, which comes with a guaranteed salary, without taking back salary. If Andersen and Haslem opt in, I believe the Heat could also trade them without returning salary – perhaps attaching the first-round pick to Haslem as a sweetener if necessary.

Free agents continue to count against the cap, but other than LeBron, Bosh and Wade – who would terminate their contracts in almost any plan –  Miami could easily renounce everyone else.

Essentially, if required to sign Melo, I believe the Heat could fairly easily pare their roster to just LeBron, Wade and Bosh.

There might be some emotional attachment to casting off Haslem and even Andersen and Cole. But remember, Pat Riley practically gave away Michael Beasley in 2010, just two years removed from Miami drafting Beasley No. 2 overall and one year from him making the All-Rookie team, in order to pursue LeBron and Bosh. I think Riley would overcome any internal dilemma based on nostalgia if it meant getting Melo.

So, the rest of this post will suppose the Heat clear their roster to just LeBron, Wade and Bosh.  It also uses the latest projected salary cap, $63.2 million with a $77 million luxury tax, for 2014-15 and predicts the cap will continuously rise by the same amount it’s projected to increase this year.

How much money would everyone sacrifice?

Once Miami’s roster is down to just LeBron, Wade and Bosh – all of whom terminated their contracts in this scenario – cap holds will leave the Heat over the cap. LeBron, Wade and Bosh would each count at 150 percent of their previous salary, and Miami would have nine roster charges (equal to the rookie minimum salary) to reach the minimum roster of 12.

Once LeBron, Wade and Bosh re-sign, though, their 2014-15 salaries would replace their free agent amounts. Then Miami could use its remaining cap room to sign Melo.

Under that scenario – if everyone wants to get paid the same amount, which we’ll call the equality plan – each of the now-big four would make $14,658,494 in 2014-15.

If LeBron, Wade and Bosh re-sign first, they could get higher raises (7.5 percent vs. 4.5 percent) and longer contracts (five years vs. four years) than Melo, so maybe Miami’s original big three would take lower starting salaries and arrange to be on par with Melo over the long run. But for now, we’ll focus on matching salaries only next season.

Of course, $14,658,494 is much less than any of the four could make next season.

Here’s:

  • Max for Melo – both if he stayed with the Knicks or left – and his salary in the equality plan (gold)
  • Max for each  LeBron, Wade and Bosh – they have the same possible max – and their salary in the equality plan (red)

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Melo 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total
Max if re-signs $22,458,402 $24,142,782 $25,827,162 $27,511,542 $29,195,922 $129,135,810
Max if signs elsewhere $22,458,402 $23,469,030 $24,479,658 $25,490,286   $95,897,375
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,318,126 $15,977,758 $16,637,391   $62,591,769

 

LeBron, Wade, Bosh 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Total
Max if
re-sign
$20,659,633 $22,209,105 $23,758,578 $25,308,050 $26,857,523   $98,133,256
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,757,881 $16,857,268 $17,956,655 $19,056,042   $69,627,847

Melo would be forgoing about $67 million over his max with the Knicks or $33 million over his max elsewhere. LeBron, Wade and Bosh would each be surrendering about $29 million.

For the Heat, this would be a huge bargain. The salary cap would restrict their ability to sign all four players – and there’s nothing Micky Arison could do about it. Essentially, the rules prevent him from spending, so if LeBron, Wade and Bosh want to pursue this plan, they would have no standing to even negotiate for higher collective salaries.

Miami would then have the room mid-level exception ($2,732,000) and minimum contracts to fill its roster. By design, it’s difficult for teams to add salary quickly once they’ve gone under the salary cap.

The luxury tax would be no concern at all.

For a year.

LeBron, Wade and Bosh can get paid again soon

If LeBron, Wade and Bosh re-sign, Miami would retain their bird rights. A key facet of bird rights: A team can go over the cap to re-sign players with the.

However, because free agents continue to count against the cap until signing, teams have a very limited ability to sign outside free agents and then exceed the cap to re-sign their own free agents. Hence, LeBron, Wade and Bosh would have to cut their salaries to make room for Melo this offseason.

But they wouldn’t need to make room for Melo next offseason.

LeBron, Wade and/or Bosh could sign a one-year deal – rather than a five-year deal – with the same starting salary as the equality plan. Then, next offseason, they could re-sign for max contracts – and significant raises.

Realistically, they would sign a two-year contract with a player option. That way, they could still become free agents in 2015 but would have an extra year of salary protection in case they determine their stock had fallen. (Options can only occur in the final year of a contract, so any deal longer than two years would delay getting a new max contract.)

The Heat would not hold Melo’s bird rights for three years, so he couldn’t take advantage of this plan until 2017. He’d likely receive a four-year contract with a player option regardless.

Here’s:

  • Annual salaries for each LeBron, Wade and Bosh in the equality plan and if they opt out as quickly as possible to re-sign for the max (red)
  • Annual salaries for Melo in the equality plan and if he opts out as quickly as possible to re-sign for the max (gold)

image

Melo 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Total
Max if re-signs $22,458,402 $24,142,782 $25,827,162 $27,511,542 $29,195,922 $129,135,810
Max if signs elsewhere $22,458,402 $23,469,030 $24,479,658 $25,490,286   $95,897,375
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,318,126 $15,977,758 $16,637,391   $62,591,769
Equality plan with early opt out $14,658,494 $15,318,126 $15,977,758 $25,093,282 $71,047,660

 

LeBron, Wade, Bosh 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Total
Max if
re-sign
$20,659,633 $22,209,105 $23,758,578 $25,308,050 $26,857,523   $98,133,256
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,757,881 $16,857,268 $17,956,655 $19,056,042   $69,627,847
Equality plan with early opt out $14,658,494 $22,137,516 $23,797,830 $25,458,143 $27,118,457 $28,778,771 $127,290,716

New contract from one signed in 2014 is italicized

Projecting the 2017-18 salary cap – and therefore Melo’s max as a free agent in 2018 – is so difficult this far ahead, I didn’t even bother with how a multi-year max contract signed then would play out over its duration.

In the same vein, though far less turbulent of an estimate, LeBron, Wade and Bosh would be relying on the salary cap making another large jump 2015-16. I think that’s quite possible, but there is risk.

There’s also risk in accepting a one-year or even two-year deal with a player option. If a player gets hurt or struggles for other reasons, he might make less than had he just accepted a five-year guaranteed contract. Remember, I’m examining max salaries under these scenarios. Players aren’t guaranteed the max.

But if this worked, LeBron, Wade and Bosh could sacrifice about $6 million each in 2014-15 and then make similar salaries in coming years to the max possible had they signed this offseason.

Melo would sacrifice about $24 million over the next four seasons. So, if they plan to opt out in a year, it would make even more sense for LeBron, Wade and Bosh to accept lower starting salaries than Melo.

If LeBron, Wade and/or Bosh opt out next summer to seek bigger contracts, that could make this pursuit much more expensive for Arison. Would he go for it?

What about a plan that gets expensive for the Heat owner immediately?

Signing-and-trading for Melo

Miami could also acquire Melo in a sign-and-trade. That would make the apron – $4 million above the luxury-tax line – rather than the salary cap the key threshold. With a project cap of $63.2 million and luxury tax of $77 million, that’s a lot of extra wiggle room – and money to pay a big four.

In a sign-and-trade route, if they each want the same starting salary, LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Melo could each make $18,190,703 in 2014-15. That’s a significant jump from the $14,658,494 they could each make by signing Melo through cap space (especially because raises in future seasons are based on initial salary).

If the big four collectively maximizes its salary in a sign-and-trade scenario, there would be a host of complications. The Heat would have no room to sign anyone other than nine minimum-salary players and couldn’t add any salary in a trade for a year.

Of course, completing a sign-and-trade for Melo alone would be complicated. Miami, New York and several players would have to agree – making this a big longshot.

Essentially, the Heat would have to sign-and-trade their own free agents – other than LeBron, Wade and Bosh, of course – to the Knicks.

All players signed-and-trade must receive three-year contracts, but only the first year must be guaranteed. Fortunately for the Knicks if they want to go this route, they won’t have cap room this offseason anyway, even if they lose Melo. So, taking a guaranteed year of salary should be no problem. The Heat can structure all their outgoing contracts so they’re fully unguaranteed for 2015-16 and 2016-17, allowing New York to waive them and maximize its 2015 cap room.

But Miami can’t just re-sign one free agent to a salary equal to Melo’s and send him to New York. Anyone in a sign-and-trade whose salary increases by more than 20 percent brings up base-year-compensation issues and probably requires a third team to make the deal work.

However, the Heat might have enough free agents to complete a sign-and-trade on their own. (Even if renounced, a team can sign-and-trade its own free agents.) If Miami signs-and-trades Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier, Toney Douglas, James Jones, Michael Beasley and Greg Oden on contracts equal to 120 percent of their 2013-14 salaries, that would be enough to acquire Melo with a 2014-15 salary of $18,190,703 – his equality-plan number in a sign-and-trade scenario.

Of course, those six players must agree to leave Miami for New York. Why would they? The way Chalmers has struggled in the Finals, he might not make $4.8 million elsewhere any other way. Battier could participate and then retire, a way to leave an even stronger legacy in Miami. Douglas, Jones, Beasley and Oden are bit players who probably couldn’t get more money elsewhere. They’re just in the right place at the right time. (If Haslem opts in, the Heat could use him in place of Chalmers. Haslem would have no say in it.)

And why would the Knicks agree? For one, Melo would have to convince them he’s leaving regardless. The Heat would also have to send draft picks to make it worth their while. But remember, if everything else comes together, it’s easy to structure a dual sign-and-trade as not to interfere with New York’s 2015 cap space.

As before, Melo would be subject to a short contract and smaller raises than the Heat’s current big three, but all four players come out ahead of the cap-space model.

Here’s:

  • Annual salaries for each LeBron, Wade and Bosh in the equality plan and if Miami gets Melo in a sign-and-trade (red)
  • Annual salaries for Melo in the equality plan and if he joins the Heat in a sign-and-trade (gold)

image

Melo 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Total
Max if re-signs $22,458,402 $24,142,782 $25,827,162 $27,511,542 $29,195,922 $129,135,810
Max if signs elsewhere $22,458,402 $23,469,030 $24,479,658 $25,490,286   $95,897,375
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,318,126 $15,977,758 $16,637,391   $62,591,769
Equality plan with early opt out $14,658,494 $15,318,126 $15,977,758 $25,093,282 $71,047,660
Equality plan with S&T $18,190,703 $19,009,285 $19,827,867 $20,646,448   $77,674,303

 

LeBron, Wade, Bosh 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 Total
Max if
re-sign
$20,659,633 $22,209,105 $23,758,578 $25,308,050 $26,857,523   $98,133,256
Equality plan $14,658,494 $15,757,881 $16,857,268 $17,956,655 $19,056,042   $69,627,847
Equality plan with early opt out $14,658,494 $22,137,516 $23,797,830 $25,458,143 $27,118,457 $28,778,771 $127,290,716
Equality plan with S&T $18,190,703 $19,555,006 $20,919,309 $22,283,611 $23,647,914   $86,405,840

New contract from one signed in 2014 is italicized

However, what’s a win for LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Melo is not a win for Arison, at least not directly. Acquiring Melo in a sign-and-trade and filling the team to the hard cap of the apron would give the Heat a 2014-15 payroll of $87 million, including luxury-tax payments. On the hook for so much guaranteed money, they’d likely face the tax annually – and the repeater penalty.

This sign-and-trade plan, though it offers substantially higher salaries than using cap space, can be combined with the opt-out plan to get even more money to LeBron, Wade and Bosh as soon as 2015 and Melo as soon as 2017.

But a sign-and-trade, with all the moving parts, is so unlikely, let’s just stop here.

A compromise

No matter what, LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Melo must collectively compromise to make this happen. That’s the new Collective Bargaining Agreement working.

The document just can’t completely prohibit players from sacrificing salary to build a team as they see fit.

So many variables remain, including what each of the four key players desires, where the cap is set and whether Miami moves its other players. There’s a lot to sort out.

But – scaled up or down depending on other influences – here’s what might work best if LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Melo are committed to making a big four:

  • No sign-and-trade. It’d be difficult, though not impossible, to get everyone else on board.
  • Haslem and Andersen opt out.
  • Miami trades Cole and its first-round draft pick for future picks.
  • Wade signs a four-year contract that starts higher than the equality-plan salary, because he gave up the most money in 2010. It’s the last major deal of his career.
  • Melo signs a four-year contract with a player option that starts higher than the equality-plan salary, because he has the most to gain by signing elsewhere and gets the smallest annual raises. After the third year, he opts out and re-signs to get a higher salary, potentially the max.
  • LeBron and Bosh each sign two-year deals starting below the equality-plan salary with player options. After next season, both opt out and re-sign for five-year max contracts.
  • The Heat re-sign Haslem to the room exception and Chris Andersen and Ray Allen to minimum contracts.

Will it happen? Who knows?

But it’s definitely workable.

John Stockton working with Bucks point guards at training camp

SACRAMENTO, CA - APRIL 30:  John Stockton #12 of the Utah Jazz dribbles in Game five of the Western Conference Quarterfinals against the Sacramento Kings during the 2003 NBA Playoffs at Arco Arena on April 30, 2003 in Sacramento, California.  The Kings won 111-91.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by: Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
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The Bucks are coached by one of the greatest point guards in NBA history, Jason Kidd. But Kidd invited another legend of the position to camp to work with his point guards. John Stockton, the NBA’s all-time leader in assists and steals, was at Bucks practice on Thursday working with Michael Carter-Williams, Matthew Dellavedova and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Not a bad person to learn from, especially since the Bucks have one of the weakest point-guard positions in the league.

Blake Griffin says he’s working on improving his three-point shot

LOS ANGELES, CA - DECEMBER 21:  Blake Griffin #32 of the Los Angeles Clippers shoots a jumper over Serge Ibaka #9 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during a 100-99 loss to the Thunder at Staples Center on December 21, 2015 in Los Angeles, California.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and condition of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
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2016-17 is going to be a big year for Blake Griffin. He missed much of last season with a quad injury and a broken hand stemming from a punching incident, and he has the ability to opt out of his contract next summer. When Griffin was healthy, he was his usual All-Star self for the Clippers, but he played just 35 games. He’s healthy now, at the start of training camp, and he says he wants to improve his three-point shot.

From Dan Woike of the Orange County Register:

“I want to be someone who shoots from there confidently, for sure,” Griffin said after Thursday’s practice at UC Irvine’s Bren Events Center. “A lot of us power forwards, our strength is inside or our versatility. You look at the best power forwards, Anthony Davis, LaMarcus (Aldridge), Draymond (Green) … they can all shoot but they can all put the ball on the floor and they can all score inside. I don’t necessarily think falling in love with the 3-point shot is a good idea, but shooting it confidently from there is great.”

Not only has Griffin not hit his threes in his career (his overall mark from beyond the arc is an awful 27.1 percent) but he doesn’t take very many of them. The most threes he’s ever shot in a season is 44 in 2013-14, and he hit 12 of them. Griffin is only 27, so he’s theoretically not done improving as a player, but it’s hard to imagine a dramatic jump this far along when that hasn’t been a part of his game at all to this point.

 

Steve Kerr endorses shorter preseason to limit back-to-backs

OAKLAND, CA - JUNE 19:  Steve Kerr of the Golden State Warriors speaks to members of the media after being defeated by the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals at ORACLE Arena on June 19, 2016 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
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There are too many preseason games. The NBA has its reasons for playing them — namely, to allow for games in non-NBA markets — and sometimes they can be valuable for teams to experiment with rotations. But most teams play seven or eight preseason games, which is unnecessary. Warriors coach Steve Kerr agrees, according to the San Francisco Chronicle‘s Connor Letourneau:

“I kind of like the idea that’s been tossed around the last couple summers to start the regular season a little earlier, maybe a week early,” Kerr said Thursday afternoon after Warriors practice. “Play five exhibition games instead of eight. I kind of like that, just so you have fewer back-to-backs in the regular season.”

The NBA has floated the idea in the past of cutting the number of preseason games in order to stretch out the regular season, thereby lessening the burden of travel and back-to-backs. The NBA has made an effort this season to cut down on back-to-backs, and this would be a logical way to do that.

Hornets’ Batum won’t let big contract affect how he plays

MIAMI, FL - APRIL 20: Nicolas Batum #5 of the Charlotte Hornets drives on Joe Johnson #2 of the Miami Heat  during game two of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals of the 2016 NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Arena on April 20, 2016 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
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CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Nicolas Batum said he isn’t planning to alter how he plays the game after signing a five-year, $120 million contract with the Charlotte Hornets.

And that’s just fine with coach Steve Clifford.

Clifford said Batum doesn’t need to put additional pressure on himself to score just because he’s now the highest-paid player in Hornets history. He told him to play how he plays.

“You don’t change the nature of how you play. I think guys get messed up with that,” Clifford said. “… I don’t think you try to reinvent yourself because the money changed. We gave him the money because he played so well. In my opinion he was an All-Star-caliber player last season when healthy.”

Batum was acquired in a trade with Portland before last season and turned out to be a gem for Charlotte, which won 48 games and tied for the third-best record in the Eastern Conference. Batum averaged a career-high 14.9 points and 5.6 assists while becoming one of the team’s top three go-to options.

Batum said he’s learned from experience that it’s not worth putting pressure on himself just because he signed a big contract.

He did in that 2012 after inking a four-year, $46 million deal to remain with the Portland Trail Blazers. While he still played well, he said it was pointless.

“I was a young guy at the time and I didn’t know what to expect,” Batum said. “Now I know. I know what I have to go through right now. I know what the views of the media and the public will be. I know that, and I’m good with it.”

For Batum, pressure no longer enters the equation because the Hornets trust him and believe in him.

“It’s more relief than pressure,” Batum said.

The Hornets made re-signing him their No. 1 priority, offering the Frenchman a huge deal about an hour into the free-agency signing period. Batum also received several offers from other teams shortly after the deadline, which he called flattering.

The 6-foot-8, 200-pound Batum enters the season as Charlotte’s best all-around player and a favorite among teammates.

“Guys are so much more comfortable when he’s out there on the floor because he makes it so much easier at both ends,” forward Marvin Williams said.

Williams said there’s a naturalness to Batum’s game, and he’s incredibly unselfish – he’s always looking for the better shot option.

“He likes to make the assist, and he likes to get everyone involved,” Williams said. “I think that is why so many people like playing with him. It’s why I love playing with him.”

And why Clifford views him as irreplaceable.

When Batum went down in the second half of last season with an ankle injury, the Hornets struggled to find their rhythm.

“He’s not a numbers guy to me,” Clifford said. “People can say, `Well, he’s making this or he’s making that (much money),’ but if he plays at the level he played at last year when he was healthy, we have a chance to be a really good team.”

The Hornets continue to work on 5-on-5 scrimmages extensively during practice as Clifford gets a feel for his team.

But there were several key players missing on Thursday.

Point guard Kemba Walker (knee) and center Cody Zeller (knee) remained out of practice while rehabbing from injuries. Guard Jeremy Lamb did not practice after stepping on a basketball and twisting his ankle, while Brian Roberts was held out after injuring his hamstring when he slipped on some water on the court. Clifford said he hopes to have Lamb and Roberts back in a few days.