Indiana Pacers v Miami Heat - Game Seven

NBA Playoff Preview: Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat

56 Comments

SEASON RECORDS

Indiana Pacers: 56-26

Miami Heat: 54-28

KEY INJURIES

Indiana Pacers: Andrew Bynum (broken)

Miami Heat: none

OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possession)

Indiana Pacers: Offense 101.5 (22nd in the NBA), Defense 96.7 (1st in the NBA)

Miami Heat: Offense: 109.0 (2nd in the NBA). Defense: 102.9 (11th in the NBA)

THREE KEYS TO THE SERIES

1) How will the Heat match up?

The Pacers – admirably or stubbornly – do what they do. They’re going to be big, and they’re going to be methodical.

The Heat are much more flexible, and it will be on Erik Spoelstra to determine how he wants to structure lineups around LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

Maybe Miami goes small with Bosh at center and a stretch four – LeBron, Rashard Lewis or Shane Battier – to space the floor. That would ensure Roy Hibbert defends outside the paint, removing the anchor of Indiana’s defense and removing Hibbert from his comfort zone. However, it would also leave the Heat vulnerable defensively to Hibbert’s post-ups and make Miami pick its poison on whether LeBron doesn’t guard Paul George or David West. Any sign Hibbert has lost confidence to the point he can’t score regardless, this should become the preferred strategy.

On the other hand, the Heat could also go big to counter Hibbert and West. Greg Oden was signed to match up with Hibbert, though that went disastrously in their regular-season meeting meeting. Small sample? Yes. Worth another shot? Maybe. Probably, even. Chris Andersen is Miami’s most reliable big man outside of Bosh, and he’ll definitely play a major role in this series. But he’s 35 and hasn’t played 30 minutes in regulation in four years. There’s only so much he can do.

Udonis Haslem could split the difference.

Haslem is an extremely physical player who, despite being just 6-foot-8, can work on Hibbert. He also has a nice mid-range jumper to pull Hibbert from the paint, though not all the way to the 3-point arc. Haslem started in the first round against the Bobcats, and then he played just three minutes against the small-ball Nets.

Spoelstra is more than willing to change his rotations based on opponent.

It’s not just who plays, but when they play – especially Bosh. Bosh is a solid defender in the right matchups, but Hibbert – and, to a lesser extent, West – can beat him up inside. Ideally for the Heat, they won’t waste all Bosh’s energy in a losing defensive match up only have him spent offensively.

2) How much does homecourt advantage matter?

All season, the Pacers made their goal securing the No. 1 seed and homecourt advantage. They’re so serious about beating Miami, they were looking for an edge since day one after losing a road Game 7 to the Heat last year.

Miami doesn’t take the regular season as seriously – see its record vs. Brooklyn in the regular season and postseason – and Indiana got the top seed it desired despite a late-season slide.

So, will all that work pay off?

In postseason series during the last four years, the Pacers are 4-0 with homecourt advantage and 1-3 without it. In individual games against Miami during the same span, the Pacers are 8-5 at home and 3-11 on the road.

It seems this should be important to Indiana.

Then again, the Pacers are 5-6 in their last 11 home games. Plus, in the Big Three era, the Heat are 11-1 with homecourt advantage and 2-0 without it in a series. They can win anywhere.

Maybe it will matter most as a mental reminder to the Pacers about why they worked so hard in the first place, potentially helping them summon some of the confidence they showed regularly early in the season and appears only occasionally now.

3) How hungry are the Pacers?

In 2012, Miami eliminated Indiana in six games in the second round. In 2013, Miami eliminated Indiana in seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The Pacers are chomping at the bit, getting closer and closer to toppling the aging Heat.

From Miami’s perspective, keeping a hungry team at bay is hard. Yes, teams should – and generally do – give maximum effort at this point in the season. But when you’re coming from the position of power, there’s a lower threshold of energy you can reach once you get on the court.

The sensation of being corned and the desire to overcome a challenge are not easy to fake. The Pacers have it. The Heat have to fake it.

Since the NBA expanded to a 16-team playoff format in 1984, teams have met in three consecutive postseasons 22 times. The same team has won all three matchups just eight times. Five of those eight had Phil Jackson – the ultimate playoff motivator – as coach.

That leaves just three teams in 30 years that have beaten the same playoff opponent in three consecutive years without Jackson.

Could the Heat make it No. 4? They have a member of the one of the previous three – LeBron, whose Cavaliers beat the Wizards in 2006, 2007 and 2008. As usual, Miami’s demeanor will be defined by its megastar.

PREDICTION

The Pacers’ late collapse was very real, but also probably overblown. A good, but not elite, team is left in the rubble. It’s also a team designed specifically to match up with the Heat, Indiana could definitely overcome the quality gap between the teams.

The biggest potential variable is one that hopefully won’t be an issue at all – Wade’s health. If he goes down, this series loses a lot of prestige. He looks fine, but his knees are a constant concern and will be for the rest of his career. As long as Wade avoids injury, the Heat will just be too much.

Heat in 6

Report: Warriors plan to sign Jose Calderon

Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson (11) is defended by Los Angeles Lakers' Jose Calderon (5) during the second half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2016, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez
Leave a comment

The Warriors let Briante Weber go (to the Hornets). Golden State wouldn’t do that without another third point guard lined up.

The likely replacement: Jose Calderon, who’s being bought out by the Lakers.

Monte Poole of CSN Bay Area:

Calderon is in the process to be bought out by the Lakers, after which he will become a free agent. Once he clears waivers, the Warriors, according to multiple sources, will be waiting to offer a physical examination and a contract.

The 35-year-old Calderon hasn’t been good in a few years. He’s a major defensive liability, and his lack of burst makes it more difficult for him to capitalize on his remaining offensive skills: a smooth standstill jumper and acute passing.

But the Warriors won’t ask much of him, sticking him behind Stephen Curry and Shaun Livingston. Draymond Green can also be a de facto point guard, and so can Andre Iguodala.

Contending teams too often fill their deep bench with over-the-hill veterans whose experience make them seem reliable but are actually overwhelmed in the moment due to a lack of athleticism. Golden State made that mistake last year with Anderson Varajeao, who didn’t make a shot in 41 Finals minutes and was -9 in Game 7.

Calderon offers a much better chance of succeeding if pressed into a limited role. If he plays important minutes, he’ll bring a steady style, best he can still execute it.

But the Warriors better hope Calderon remains glued to the bench during the playoffs. That presents a far more dependable path to victory.

Joel Embiid out indefinitely

Philadelphia 76ers' Joel Embiid in action during an NBA basketball game against the Houston Rockets, Friday, Jan. 27, 2017, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
AP Photo/Matt Slocum
2 Comments

The 76ers could finish the season with the last No. 1 pick and the best rookie in years sidelined.

One one hand, Philadelphia should be thrilled that describes two players.

On the other hand, it’s not ideal to have so much talent injured.

No. 1 pick Ben Simmons is definitely out for the rest of the year. And it doesn’t sound encouraging for Joel Embiid, who has been hampered by a knee injury.

CSN Philly:

Joel Embiid on Monday will have an MRI on his injured left knee and is now listed as out indefinitely.

Embiid has been experiencing swelling and soreness in the left knee injury that has caused him to miss 16 out of the last 17 games. Bryan Colangelo announced back on Feb. 11 that Embiid has a minor meniscal tear. In his most recent press conference last Friday, Colangelo had targeted this Friday’s home game against the Knicks as a possibility for Embiid’s return. Now, that isn’t the case.

Embiid had been the biggest ray of hope for Philadelphia, but the 76ers shouldn’t chase watchability down the stretch. Sit Embiid until he’s fully healthy and secure the best draft position possible.

Maybe Embiid’s body just can’t handle the rigors of NBA basketball, but Philadelphia has no choice but to hope for the best with him and Simmons. And hope the nail the their first-round pick this year and get the Lakers’ first-rounder.

This could still be a dangerously good team in coming years. The Process created that potential.

But the threat of injury always looms around the corner, maybe especially so for Embiid.

Report: Knicks’ Joakim Noah likely to miss rest of season after knee surgery

New York Knicks' Joakim Noah (13) walks to the bench during a time out in the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2017, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez
3 Comments

And then there was Derrick Rose.

The Knicks’ big-name offseason acquisitions* are falling one by one.

New York is releasing Brandon Jennings. Now Joakim Noah is out.

*I’m not counting Courtney Lee, who is unknown to far too many casual fans.

Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports:

Prepare for the talk next fall about Noah feeling refreshed and ready to help the Knicks.

But this surgery won’t reverse the underlying problem: Noah is a 31-year-old big man with heavy mileage. He can manage his knees, but it’s probably too late for him to regain enough athleticism to reliably contribute.

Just three years and $55 million+ remaining on his contract, which already looked like the NBA’s worst deal and is now even more unfavorable.

Buddy Hield: Vivek Ranadive told me at Kings-Pelicans games, ‘We’re still going to get you’

Sacramento Kings guard Buddy Hield, right, talks with teammate Ben McLemore as they work out before their NBA basketball game against the Denver Nuggets, Thursday, Feb. 23, 2017, in Sacramento, Calif. Hield, along with New Orleans Pelicans teammates Tyreke Evans and Langston Galloway, was sent to the Kings in exchange for center DeMarcus Cousins and forward Omri Casspi, Sunday. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli
Leave a comment

The Kings reportedly coveted Buddy Hield in last year’s draft. Once the Pelicans picked him No. 6, Sacramento traded down from No. 8.

Several months later, the Kings traded for him in the DeMarcus Cousins deal.

Between?

Kings owner Vivek Ranadive apparently communicated his intentions at the Pelicans’ two games in Sacramento this season.

Sean Cunningham of ABC 10:

Hield:

Vivek always, every time — even the past two times — he always talk about, “We’re always pushing hard for you.” He said, “We’re still going to get you.” He kept saying that.

I was surprised with him saying that, but now, when I saw I was going to Sacramento, I said, “Oh, these guys are really serious about me.” I just kind of know they were determined about getting me.

This is wild!

Hield obviously doesn’t outright say the Kings’ front office rushed this trade through before the Cousins-loving owner, awestruck by the prospect of having the next Stephen Curry, changed his mind. But Hield’s statement runs right in line with all those rumors.

Even at face value, Ranadive’s words, assuming Hield is accurately conveying them, are something — especially for an owner who has denied much basketball involvement.

Sacramento is some kind of place.