The Extra Pass: Winning regular season series doesn’t guarantee playoff success… but it doesn’t hurt

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Not long after Mason Plumlee shut down LeBron James at the rim and the Nets had swept the season series from the Heat — two teams that very well could meet in the second round of the playoffs — I put this out there:

Nets fans shouldn’t count on regular season success equaling postseason success against Miami.

The Nets won three of those games by one point and the fourth went into double overtime — it’s not like they dominated Miami. Besides, Miami has rested guys (Dwyane Wade did not play Tuesday). More than that, teams change in the playoffs, where the match ups and the ability to exploit them matter more.

But regular season success in a series does tend to point to post season winners.

In the past three seasons, the winners of the regular season series are 23-11 in playoff match ups. (Eight series were tied in the regular season, and this does not include the Finals where the teams only played each other twice.)

That’s far from a guarantee of victory, but it suggests that the better team tends to win out in the regular season and postseason. You would expect a one seed to have beaten an eight seed most of the time during the season, same with a two-seven matchup, and it does shake out that way.

Here are the 11 series in the last three years where the regular season was not a predictor of postseason success:

• 2013: Clippers took 3-of-4 from Grizzlies then lost in six in playoffs.
• 2013: Nuggets took 3-of-4 from Warriors, but without Danilo Gallinari were not the same team come the playoffs.
• 2012: Celtics took 3-of-4 from Heat then lost in seven to eventual champs in Eastern Conference Finals.
• 2012: Sixers had taken 2-of-3 from Celtics in regular season but lost in seven games in playoffs.
• 2012: Magic took 2-of-3 from Pacers in regular season when they still had Dwight Howard, lost in playoffs without him.
• 2012: Bulls took 2-of-3 from 76ers in regular season but after Derrick Rose blew out his knee fell in playoffs to Philly.
• 2012: Spurs took 2-of-3 from Thunder in regular season, lost in six in playoffs after being up 2-0.
• 2011: Bulls swept season series from Heat but Miami dominated Eastern Conference Finals 4-1.
• 2011: Celtics took 3-of-4 from Heat in regular season but Miami beat them in five games in playoffs.
• 2011: Lakers took 2-of-3 from Mavericks in the regular season but Dallas swept the playoff series.
• 2011: Grizzlies take 3-of-4 from Thunder in the regular season but the Thunder win Game 7 and take the playoff series.

You note injuries play a role here in a few cases — Derrick Rose’s knee and Dwight Howard’s back changed the course of their teams’ seasons in 2012.

But a lot of times it’s a matchup issue. Down 2-0 to the Spurs in 2012 the Oklahoma City Thunder figured out how to better use their athleticism on defense and went on to sweep that series (they have dominated the regular season series since then as well). Miami has done the same thing to Boston twice, having come together in the playoffs and using their superior athleticism to their advantage on that stage.

That’s a Boston team that had a lot of these Nets players on it. Which is why Brooklyn fans may not want to read too much into that sweep.

After four years out of NBA, Pacers give Damien Wilkins chance to return

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Consider this the most unexpected signing of the summer.

The last time we saw Damien Wilkins in the NBA, the 6’6″ wing out of the University of Georgia was finishing his ninth NBA season, averaging 6.4 points per game and shooting 33.3 percent from three. He looked like a guy who was done at the NBA level. Since then he has played in China, Spain, and the D-League.

The Pacers are giving him another crack to make an NBA roster. They have signed 37-year-old Wilkins to a non-guaranteed deal, reports the Indy Star.

The Indiana Pacers agreed to a one-year, non-guaranteed veteran minimum deal for close to $2 million with small forward and shooting guard Damien Wilkins, a league source confirmed to IndyStar.

The Pacers have 14 guys on the roster already, and they have at the wing Victor Oladipo, Lance Stephenson, Rodney Stuckey, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Glenn Robinson III, it will be tough for Wilkins to crack that rotation.

But he’ll get his chance, and having a desperate veteran pushing guys in camp never hurts. Maybe he can impress enough in camp that if the Pacers don’t want him another team might. It’s a foot in the door, and that’s all Wilkins can ask at this point.

Watch the Top 10 dunks from the NBA Summer League

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Summer League, at its core, is athletic young players in sloppy games.

That leads to massive dunks. Here are the top 10, which John Collins deserving the top spot.

Report: Carmelo Anthony willing to waive $8 million trade kicker for Rockets

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Carmelo Anthony does not want to return to the Knicks. The Knicks want to trade Carmelo Anthony. The Houston Rockets would like to trade for Carmelo Anthony.

So far all that will has not gotten a deal nearly as close to done as has been reported, I was told by sources. There are major hurdles, and the Knicks don’t like the offers they’ve gotten so far, which is why they pulled back (not because of the Scott Perry hiring or some desire to change Anthony’s mind). As has been reported before, Anthony is willing to waive his no trade clause for the right team to get the deal done, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN said on The Jump.

“My sources tell me he’s willing to waive the trade kicker, which is worth around $8 million, so that makes a little easier for Houston to do a trade.”

That’s nice. It doesn’t solve the core problem with a Rockets’ trade.

The Rockets are over the cap so the only way this trade gets done is they send out enough salary to match and create space for Anthony. The Rockets could do that with a combination of Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, Trevor Ariza, and some expiring deals, but that cuts way too deeply into the roster and hurts the Rockets more than it helps. What the Rockets need to do in this trade is move Ryan Anderson, and his three-years, $60 million — except the Knicks don’t want that contract on their books (even though Anderson is a good player when healthy). So now the two sides are trying to find a third team that would take on Anderson’s contract, but the Rockets are going to have to give up sweeteners — a couple first round picks or a pick and a quality young player — that they don’t have to get the deal done. So enter a fourth team to get the sweeteners, but that team will want things back, and quickly the house of cards falls apart.

On top of all that, the Knicks still don’t think they’re getting enough back in the trade to want to do it. Yet, anyway.

Over on the left coast, there is Portland saying “look at us, look at us!” They would be willing to trade for Anthony, as C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard have made clear.

One massive problem with that: Anthony has not been interested in waiving his no trade clause for anyone but Cleveland and Houston.

If he changes his mind — and that’s a huge, unlikely “if” — maybe a deal could be found. The Blazers already have a top-five payroll in the NBA (may be top two when all is said and done) and that means they have to send out salary as well, someone like Evan Turner and Meyers Leonard (moving Allen Crabbe is the dream, but also highly unlikely). The Knicks could have interest in Turner, the Blazers have picks to throw in, and if a third team picked up Leonard maybe we’re close to something. But until Anthony makes it clear he would accept a trade to Portland, something he has yet to do, this is all a moot exercize.

But hey, Anthony will waive his trade kicker. So there’s that.

Can Stephen Curry shoot the ball into the sun roof of a car? Did you even need to ask?

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Stephen Curry has been getting up buckets the past week, working on his game. Sort of. It’s been a bit unconventional.

First, he finished off an alley-oop pass from Tony Romo on the American Century golf course in Lake Tahoe.

Then on Thursday he was filming an Infinity car commercial and had to shoot one into the sun roof from what looks to be 15-20 feet away. He drains it.

Of course he made that, he’s basically the Meadowlark Lemon of a new generation, but without the hook shot.