Kirk Hinrich, Paul George

How the Pacers’ slump could cost Paul George more than $6 million

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When Paul George signed a  contract extension with the Pacers before the season, it seemed nearly a foregone conclusion he’d take advantage of the Derrick Rose Rule and receive the higher of the two possible salary paths he could take in the next five years.

All he had to do this season: Make at least the All-NBA third team (or win MVP, but achieving the latter without the former is essentially impossible).

George made the All-NBA third team last season at age 22. Previously, 43 of 56 players ever to make All-NBA so young made it the next year. And nearly half the exceptions can be explained at least in part by injury (Derrick Rose in 2011-12, Chris Bosh in 2007-08, Amar’e Stoudemire in 2005-06, Stephon Marbury in 2000-01, Michael Jordan in 1985-86) or other extenuating circumstance (Rick Barry in 1967-68).*

*Barry signed with the ABA’s Oakland Oaks that year, and though he was barred from playing due to his Warriors contract, he obviously wasn’t going to make All-NBA in the ABA, anyway.

It seemed as long George remained healthy, he’d get there – and he’s remained healthy. George has played in all 76 of the Pacers’ games this season. He’s played pretty well, too, making his second straight All-Star Game.

But that might not be enough in a season that has seen the NBA’s first-class forwards both improve from within and expand from the outside.

LeBron James and Kevin Durant will take the two All-NBA first-team spots at the position. Blake Griffin should, and likely will, also place ahead of George. That means George can fall behind only two of these players and get his higher salary:

  • Kevin Love
  • Anthony Davis
  • Carmelo Anthony
  • LaMarcus Aldridge
  • Dirk Nowitzki
  • Maybe Tim Duncan

There’s a chance Neolithic voters will punish Love for racking up empty stats while playing for a non-playoff team, but I really want to believe we’re past that. Yes, Love sometimes targets rebounds rather than contesting shots at the expense of Minnesota’s defense. Yes, the Timberwolves will miss the playoffs. But he had a fantastic season overall, and Minnesota still has a chance to finish with a winning record in a loaded Western Conference. Despite George’s defensive advantage, I would absolutely choose Love over George.

Davis’ candidacy, the next-strongest of the group in my eyes, will depend on his health down the stretch. He’s been incredible these last few weeks, really appearing as if he turned a corner. And his start to the season was solid enough to serve as a base for his closing fireworks.

If New York makes the playoffs, Anthony’s stock will go through the roof. Somehow, he’s quietly worked his butt off (even more than usual defensively) for a Knicks team that appeared to be going nowhere. Regardless of whether New York outlasts Atlanta and Cleveland, Melo has certainly given the Knicks their money’s worth heading into free agency.

Aldridge appeared to be a shoe-in earlier in the season, even an MVP candidate in the circles intent on applying the word “valuable” in an extremely team-specific manner. But the Trail Blazers and Aldridge have collectively slipped, though not so far to eliminate him from the discussion.

Nowitzki is having his best season since leading the Mavericks to the 2011 NBA championship, and Daallas’ place on the playoff fringe will draw eyeballs. If Nowitzki steps up and leads the Mavericks into the playoffs, he’ll get All-NBA consideration.

As always, Duncan has been quietly excellent. Maybe a 19-game winning will actually get voters to notice, though that accomplishment will likely have faded out from view by the time ballots are submitted. It’s possible, though, Duncan gets more All-NBA votes than George and takes a center spot. Until last season, he’d been a forward for all 13 of his All-NBA selections. That’s why Duncan is listed with the “maybe.”

The appeal of the Pacers – and by extension, George – was their team-first attitude and team-wide success. The former is headed out the window, and the latter might be going with it. Fairly or unfairly, Indiana’s late-season slump could cripple George’s All-NBA hopes.

There will be another time for more thoroughly analyzing the candidacy of George and the other forwards – and each has a couple more weeks to build their cases – but it’s definitely conceivable at least six of the bunch could finish ahead of him in All-NBA voting.

And if that happens, it would be quite costly to George.

What’s at stake? Using the latest salary-cap projections: $6,755,943 during the next five seasons.

Typically, a player’s rookie-contract extension can begin at only 25 percent of a slightly adjusted variant on the salary cap. But if he meets what are called the “5th Year 30% Max criteria,” he can negotiate a contract that starts at up to 30 percent of the adjusted cap. (Hat tip: Larry Coon for providing adjusted cap estimate)

Zach Lowe of Grantland:

The two sides struck an interesting compromise, according to several sources who have seen George’s deal: If George makes an All-NBA team this season, triggering the raise, his salary will settle at 27 percent of the cap level, instead of the full 30 percent.

The Pacers also gave George an opt-out after Year 4 of the new deal,which Mark Deeks of ShamSports.com has reflected in his salary database. Indiana was reluctant to do the opt-out, but ultimately yielded on the issue, per sources close to the talks. They’ll have the advantage of George’s Bird rights as long as he’s on the team, regardless of the opt-out clause. The main point of the “designated player” provision is to give teams the chance to lock up a franchise player they drafted for a year longer than usual. George’s deal subverts that principle, and allows him to hit the open market earlier than expected.

Here are the different versions of George’s contract –  25 percent max in blue, 27 percent max in gold – based, again, on the latest salary-cap projection.

image

Season 25% max 27% max
2014-15  $14,686,832  $15,861,779
2015-16  $15,788,344  $17,051,412
2016-17  $16,889,857  $18,241,045
2017-18  $17,991,369  $19,430,679
2018-10  $19,092,882  $20,620,312
Total  $84,449,284  $91,205,227

So, George has more incentive than the typical player to finish the season strong.

The Pacers, with a No. 1 seed on the line, probably wouldn’t mind if he does. But if he doesn’t, that might be OK, too.

On the flip side of a George-focused analysis, Indiana would have to pay him more if he makes an All-NBA team. On an obvious level, that would cost Herbert Simon real dollars. It would also limit the Pacers’ ability to re-sign Lance Stephenson and remain under the luxury-tax threshold.

Here’s how much money – using a $76.7 luxury-tax-limit estimate and assuming the Pacers 2014-15 roster is comprised of George, Stephenson, Roy Hibbert, David West, George Hill, Luis Scola, Ian Mahinmi, Chris Copeland, C.J. Watson, Solomon Hill, Donald Sloan, and two minimum-salary players – the Pacers could have under tax limit for Stephenson, depending on George’s contract.

  • George at 25 percent max: $8,985,162 starting salary,$51,664,682 over five years
  • George at 27 percent max: $7,810,215 starting salary,$44,908,739 over five years

Either way, the Pacers might be able to clear more room by waiving Scola, whose salary is only partially guaranteed depending on incentives. Indiana could also carry fewer than 13 players for portions of the season.

George, in his quest to trigger a higher salary, doesn’t have so many options. Thanks to the Pacers’ slump and a strong pool of forwards, his All-NBA candidacy is pushed further against the ropes than ever seemed possible.

It’s up to George to step up in these final six games and leave a lasting impression for All-NBA voters. A lot is at stake.

Report: Magic makes first trade, Lakers send Lou Williams to Rockets for first-round pick, Corey Brewer

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Magic Johnson has pulled the trigger on his first trade — and it’s a solid one for the team that will give them another first-round pick.

It may be a better one for a Rockets’ team looking to make a deep playoff run.

The Lakers are sending Lou Williams to the Houston Rockets and getting back what they really want in a pick, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports.

Lou Williams seemed to confirm this on Twitter.

We don’t know what year that first-round pick is, most likely 2017 but we don’t know for sure yet.

Williams became a sought-after trade commodity because the guy who used to be a volume scorer still gets plenty of points but now does it efficiently. He leads the Lakers scoring 18.6 points per game, with a very good true-shooting percentage of 60.9, in part because he gets to the line a lot more. He’s doing all that in just 24.2 minutes a night off the bench, which is why he’s a leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year.

For the Rockets, they now bring the scoring punch of Williams and Eric Gordon — probably the frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year — off the bench. That will relieve some scoring pressure, and maybe reduce the minutes load, for James Harden.

Williams should blend almost seamlessly into the Mike D’Antoni offense. The only concern for the Rockets is potential playoff matchups where Williams can be exploited defensively, but that team is going to play fast and put up points.

For the Lakers, they get a first-round pick, although if it is a 2017 it will be about pick 27. Corey Brewer makes the salaries match up but he is a below replacement-level player at this point, don’t be shocked if the Lakers try to move him next summer. My only question with the Lakers is could they have gotten a higher first rounder from another team, but this seems a fair deal for Sweet Lou.

PBT Extra: Will Magic run Lakers like his businesses or his Twitter account?

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The Lakers needed a front office change, and they got it — two days before the trade deadline. Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak are out, Magic Johnson is in.

It’s a good first step, but here is the question I ask in this latest PBT Extra: What kind of leader will Magic Johnson be?

Will he be like he ran his business empire, hiring smart people and getting everyone to collaborate into a greater whole?

Or, will he run the Lakers like his Twitter account?

Magic has said all the right things about it being the former, but soon will come time for action.

Reports: Agent Rob Pelinka set to become Lakers new general manager, finalizing deal

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Golden State broke the mold and hired an agent as a general manager in Bob Myers a few years back. Safe to say that has worked out fairly well for them.

Now the Lakers will try to replicate that experiment — they are on the verge of hiring Kobe’s former agent Rob Pelinka as their new general manager, according to both media reports and the players he has under contract. Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical at Yahoo Sports was first with the news.

Backing up those reports, several of Pelinka’s players have come right out and said the agent is taking the job. Via Calvin Watkins of ESPN.

Rockets guard Eric Gordon said his agent, Rob Pelinka, will become the GM of the Lakers. “I think he’s going to be good,” Gordon said. “He had a good reputation as an agent and definitely expect nothing but good things from him. “It’s a different challenge, and I think he’ll be just fine.” Pelinka not only represents Gordon but Trevor Ariza and James Harden.

Pelinka will serve as the right-hand man for Magic Johnson, and will handle the day-to-day operations of the basketball side of the organization. On his first day, Johnson talked about working closely with coach Luke Walton, Ryan West (an assistant GM and son of Jerry), Jessie and Joey Boss (two of the Buss children also working in the front office, and well respected). Pelinka would be part of that collaborative effort — which is how most successful front offices work. While one person with the hammer has to make the final call, the best organizations have teams of guys who provide views from scouts, analytic departments, coaching staffs, capologists, and more (including ownership on the biggest deals). The idea is to synthesize all that information into an informed decision.

Pelinka would bring to the table things Jim Buss and Kupchak did not — he is personable and good in the room with players. Kupchak and Buss were disasters in free agent meetings with stars in recent years, but if you don’t know how to recruit as an agent, you starve. Pelinka also ran a team with his agency of competing personalities, he knows the CBA well, player contracts well, and he has good contacts all over the league.

Plus, Kobe wanted it.

Jeanie Buss says decision to fire brother Jim was so hard “I probably waited too long”

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The question has been for weeks not if but when. Ever since Magic Johnson was brought on as a “consultant to ownership” for Jeanie Buss and the Lakers the writing was on the wall, Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak were going to be out. Magic’s heavy-handed public campaign to take over Jim’s spot added to the obviousness of the situation.

Nobody expected to be this fast — and certainly not two days before the trade deadline.

Why now? Lakers owner and team governor Jeanie Buss and Magic — the new head of Lakers’ basketball operations — were on the Lakers’ cable network Spectrum Sportsnet in Los Angeles and answered those questions.

“It’s something I thought about for a long time, and once the decision became clear in my mind there was really no reason to wait, Buss said…

“In today’s NBA there is no offseason, you’re constantly preparing for the draft, for the season, for Summer League, so there was no time like the present.”

This was very different from most teams firing a GM and basketball president — Jim Buss is Jeanie’s brother (and will remain part owner), Mitch Kupchak has been a loyal Laker front office soldier for decades. For Jeanie Buss, this was emotional and was not just business.

“This was a very difficult decision,” Buss said. “It was probably so hard for me to make that I probably waited too long. And for that, I apologize to Lakers fans. But now with clarity and direction, and talking to with Ervin, really knowing a change was needed, and that’s why we’re here today.”

Why did she wait so long, through what she called an “erosion” of what the Lakers should be?

“I wanted for the current (she meant former) front office to show us what Laker basketball was going to be. It just wasn’t going in a direction that was satisfactory for what this organization stands for,” Buss said.

Magic added perspective.

“It really wasn’t about the last couple weeks, it’s been about years,” Magic said.

However, Johnson did say in a later Los Angeles radio interview that he was kept out of the loop on the Lakers’ pursuit of DeMarcus Cousins All-Star weekend. He would not say if that impacted the timing, and he dodged the question about whether he would have included Brandon Ingram in the trade.

Johnson said he has talked to numerous other general managers already, both getting well wishes and talking trades — Los Angeles remains expected to move Lou Williams before the trade deadline, according to sources around the league.

“After we leave (the studio where this interview was taking place) we’re going to go back to the war room with coach Walton, Ryan West (an assistant GM), Jessie and Joey (Buss children working in the front office), we’re all going to sit in a room and evaluate trade possibilities,” Magic said.

Johnson continually praised both Luke Walton and the young core of the team — all of which were put in place by the former front office. He said he wanted to build with this core.

“We have the right coach with Luke Walton and a lot of great young players, that we can build and make sure we develop, and help them turn into the stars we think they can become,” Magic said.

“This isn’t about going back to Showtime, we’re not turning back the clock,” Buss said. “The Lakers have figured out how to win in every era, and certainly the game has evolved, and the rules have changed. We, in our discussions, were looking at evolving with the game and what the modern NBA is about.”

Magic said he wants a GM who can work with him and who also knows the CBA and has relationships with teams, “someone smarter than me.” He also talked about everyone in the organization working together in the front office, in a collaborative way.

“That’s how I built my (business) organization, that’s how I want to build this one,” Johnson said.

As expected, both Johnson and Buss said this was about winning and getting the organization going back in the right direction.

“When we sat down for dinner, and she asked me to come back, I think the timing was right,” Johnson said. “It was right for me to put my businesses aside and focus on Laker business, try to build an organization fans can be proud of, both on the court and in the offices.”