The Extra Pass: This season’s record number of threes is just the start

13 Comments

This season in the NBA, slightly more than one in four shots taken is a three.

Even though you know that’s the way the league is going, the number is kind of stunning. And yes, it is a record.

It’s also just the start.

The NBA stole the three point line from the ABA and introduced it in 1979-80 — the year Magic Johnson entered the league — as a way to both add some excitement to the game and space the floor out a little. It took time for guys to learn to hit it — with reason, there was no coach in 1978 who would have told you taking a 24 footer for the same number of points you can get for a four footer was a good shot. Take it and you got a seat on the bench next to Ernie DiGregorio. Guys hadn’t practiced the shot and in the first season it was introduced players shot 28 percent from three.

That changed and this season guys are knocking down 37 percent and because guys can hit it — because it can win games — coaches are encouraging them to take the shot. A lot. Analytics have made hot what is kind of obvious when you think about it — take your shots close to the basket because you are more likely to make them, and if you can’t get close get a three so you can get the extra point. The trend of increasing three point attempts is older than the analytic movement in the NBA it’s been going on for decades. Check out this chart of average threes taken per game, per team.

source:

The number of threes has been spiking in recent years and that number is going to continue to climb.

This season about 41 percent of shots happen within 8 feet of the basket (teams are shooting 55 percent), and 25 percent from three. That leaves 34 percent in the midrange — those are the shots the analytics people are pushing to reduce. Look at what Rockets GM and analytics poster boy Daryl Morey is doing with the Rockets’ D-League franchise, that’s an extreme but you get the idea.

During Sunday’s Miami Heat win over Houston, former coach turned analyst Jeff Van Gundy went on a little “the midrange shot matters” rant. He bemoaned the analytics movement pushing shooters away from those shots.

You know what’s a good shot? One you make consistently. Nobody, analytics minded or not, would tell Dirk Nowitzki to stop shooting from the midrange — he makes them at a 49.8 percent clip. Courtney Lee hits 51 percent. Stephen Curry 48.2 percent, Serge Ibaka hits 48.5 percent. There are others, guys who if they get to certain spots will knock it down (Tim Duncan’s 15-foot bank, for example).

But that is not the norm. John Wall has taken 434 midrange shots and hit 36.2 percent. Bradley Beal 426 shots and hit 36.6 percent. And on it goes, most guys do not high a high enough percentage to make midrange jumpers a good choice — the league average is below 40 percent. You especially don’t want to take that shot if it is contested.

If you hit 37 percent of your threes and you get an extra point for those, it’s like hitting 55.5 percent of your midrange shots (that’s the idea behind eFG%, to count that extra point).

Which is why the trend of more threes will continue (particularly corner threes, a little shorter with a much higher make percentage).

It’s not complex algorithms changing the game, it’s just following logic — to win games you need to score the most points, so take the best shots. Get to the rim if you can. But if not, the three is a better choice than the midrange jumper.

LeBron James, Cavaliers hope to even series with Pacers

Getty Images
1 Comment

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) — LeBron James has been in this playoff position before, just not in the first round.

With Cleveland down 2-1 to the Indiana Pacers in the first round, James was asked if Game 4 in Indianapolis Sunday was a must win.

“It’s the postseason,” said James, who is 10-0 in his career in first-round playoff series with Cleveland and Miami. “Every game is a must win. You want to come in and play well and win no matter what. No matter if you have home-court advantage or if you’re starting on the road, that’s the mindset you have to have. I felt like (Friday) was a must win. We didn’t win, obviously, but it’s the same mindset on Sunday.”

James, who scored 28 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and delivered eight assists in a 92-90 road loss Friday night, rejected what he felt were reporters’ attempts to ask if the other players needed to do more.

“You guys think I’m going to throw my teammates under the bus? I’m not about that,” James said. “Guys just, we have to be better, including myself. Had six turnovers (Friday). I was horrible in the third quarter, couldn’t make a shot. If I had made some better plays in the third quarter, the lead doesn’t skip.”

The Pacers cut a 17-point halftime deficit to six points in the third quarter and finally took their first lead in the fourth quarter.

“We know we all gotta play better as a collective group, no matter who it is,” James said. “We got production to start the game and in the second half there wasn’t much production. We still had a chance to win. We’ve got to regroup and figure how we can be better in Game 4.”

Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue said the Cavaliers were limited because George Hill‘s back “locked up” in the second half. Hill played only nine minutes in the second half, scoring two of his 13 points. Lue used James and Jordan Clarkson rather than backup point guard Jose Calderon in the fourth quarter. If Hill can’t go Sunday, Lue said he will likely start Calderon.

Hill had an MRI on Saturday, but the results weren’t back. He is listed as questionable for Game 4 with back spasms. Hill was hurt during Game 1 when Trevor Booker set a back screen and felt stiffness before Game 2, but played 20 minutes.

For the Pacers, Bojan Bogdanovic was the difference maker, scoring 15 of his team-high 30 points in the fourth quarter. Bogdanovic struggled shooting the first two games of the series.

Bogdanovic, who made 7 of 9 3-pointers, kept his focus after two quick fouls in the first quarter and had to leave briefly in the fourth when he picked up his fifth foul. The seven 3-pointers tied a franchise playoff record, also held by Reggie Miller twice, Chuck Person and Paul George.

“I thought it was going to be another poor performance from myself, but in the second half I started hitting shots and started feeling (much) better and I think a did a great job (Friday night),” the Croatian forward said.

Bogdanovic said he was most pleased with his defense against James.

“Everybody thought before this season that I cannot play defense,” he said. “I don’t say that I am playing great defense, but I am working hard at trying to make it tough for each offensive player that I am guarding.”

Bogdanovic said he tries to push James so he catches the ball far from the basket.

“Against those type of players you just try to stay aggressive on them,” Bogdanovic said.

Pacers coach Nate McMillan was impressed with his ability to produce both ways.

“You’re taking a pounding if you’re on the defensive end of the floor if you’re guarding LeBron,” McMillan said. “But offensively he found some energy. He got some good looks and he knocked them down.”

The Pacers came back to win eight times during the regular season after being down 15 or more points.

“We’ve been resilient,” guard Victor Oladipo said. “We made an adjustment in the second half and it helped us. But it’s only one game; I’m looking forward to Sunday.”

Rumor: Portland coach Terry Stotts could lose job after being swept out of playoffs

Getty Images
1 Comment

Regular season: Terry Stotts was mentioned as a Coach of the Year candidate after leading the Portland Trail Blazers to 49 wins and the three seed in the West, led by a top 10 defense.

Playoffs: Portland was swept out of the postseason in the first round by Anthony Davis.

The latter part of that is going to lead to some real soul searching and changes coming to the Trail Blazers. That could include Stotts losing his job, reports Marc Stein of the New York Times.

There is plenty of blame to go around for Portland’s quick exit from the postseason, Stein is right that it’s not all on Stott’s shoulders. In fact, I would argue most of it is not.

However, this is the third time in four years Portland is out in the first round, and it leads to the question “what is it about their style that makes them so defendable and beatable in the playoffs?” This is a little like Toronto in recent years, where despite a lot of talent they were predictable and therefore defendable in the postseason. How much of that falls on Stotts vs. the roster he has to coach?

After a period of reflection in Portland, there are going to be changes in the wake of this sweep. Stotts’ job will be part of that discussion, no matter how good a job he did. The question for Blazers management is, if not Stotts then who is next? Who are they getting that’s better?

That said, if Stotts were to be let go he would hand on his feet very quickly.

After Ricky Rubio’s triple-double, Russell Westbrook promises to “shut that s*** off”

Associated Press
5 Comments

Ricky Rubio outplayed Russell Westbrook Saturday night in Utah and now the Jazz are up 2-1 in that series.

Rubio did his damage from the midrange — he was 5-of-5 between the key and the arc — on his way to 26 points, to go with 11 rebounds and 10 assists. All series the Thunder have dared Rubio to shoot and to beat them, Saturday he did. It was a stark contrast to Westbrook’s 14 points on 17 shots Saturday with eight turnovers.

When asked about Rubio’s big night postgame, Westbrook was looking ahead to Game 4 and using a little NSFW language (hat tip to Ben Golliver of SI, who loves him some playoff podium video).

There you have it, a personal guarantee.

Rubio struggled some in Game 1, taking 18 shots and mostly the ones the Thunder wanted him to. However, after that he has been better at getting to his spots and taking the shots in rhythm, and it’s worked — he’s averaging 20.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8 assists per game this series. OKC has been focused on making life difficult for rookie Donovan Mitchell (with limited success) and it’s freed up Rubio to make plays.

More than just slowing the Spanish point guard, Westbrook and the Thunder need to figure out how to get their offense back on track against a Jazz defense that was best in the NBA once Gobert got healthy last season. Oklahoma City lost Game 2 when their big three — Westbrook, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony — went 0-of-15 in the fourth quarter. In Game 3, OKC averaged 100 points per 100 possessions (well below their season average of 110.2) and Westbrook shot 29.4 percent. Do that again in Game 4 and it will not matter what Rubio shoots, what matters is the Thunder could be looking at a 3-1 deficit. The Thunder need to even this series before it heads back to Oklahoma City.

Gregg Popovich will not coach Game 4 following death of his wife, Erin

Getty Images
Leave a comment

San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich will not be on the sidelines again for Game 4 Sunday following the death of his wife, Erin, to a lengthy illness.

Ettore Messina will again coach the Spurs.

Popovich also missed Game 3. His San Antonio Spurs are down 3-0 to the Golden State Warriors in the first-round matchup. None of that matters compared to the loss of a woman he loved and was married to for four decades.

Erin Popovich’s passing has cast a pall over the series, especially with Warriors coach Steve Kerr being very close to the Popovichs dating back to his playing days with the Spurs.

The reaction and sadness about Erin’s passing has reached well beyond this series.

Our thoughts are with the Popovich family in this difficult time.