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‘Hot Hand’ may exist after all, and data shows players like J.R. Smith believe in it

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BOSTON — It doesn’t take an MIT graduate student to tell you that J.R. Smith is among the many players in the league who believe in the “Hot Hand” theory, which is essentially the notion that if you’ve made a few shots in a row, you’re shooting the next one — regardless of the quality of that shot — because of a belief that you’re now in some kind of zone.

Historical research has shown that this type of streak shooting simply doesn’t exist — think of it like a coin flip or a roulette wheel, where what happened on the previous toss or spin has no bearing on the outcome of the very next turn.

But new research presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference shows that the Hot Hand does indeed exist, and that there is a statistical likelihood of a player hitting his next shot after making a few in a row — once you adjust for things like difficulty, range, and the proximity of the nearest defender that hasn’t been possible to quantify until now.

The SportVU tracking cameras that have been installed in all 29 NBA arenas log all of this data, so when you put this information into a complex mathematical equation, what you get is a small statistical bump (a little more than one percent) in the likelihood of a player making his next shot after he’s hit three or four straight.

The most important factor here seems to be the “heat check,” where a player will launch increasingly difficult shots that have a very small percentage of going in once one of these shooting streaks has started. It could be a pull-up three in transition, or a wild turn-around jumper over a long defender, but these types of shots not only end a player’s current run of hot shooting, they’re also detrimental to his team’s overall success on a given possession.

The conclusion of the study found that players believe in the Hot Hand and act accordingly: When they believe they’re hot, they take shots from further away, defenders cover them more closely, they are more likely to take their team’s next shot, and they take shots that are more difficult than normal. The aforementioned J.R. Smith, for example, was found to take his team’s next shot more than 50 percent of the time when he’s made four of his last five.

Statistically, it was shown that players make a higher percentage of shots after hitting a few consecutively when adjusting for these factors. Teams could theoretically use this data to educate players by informing them that yes, when you feel like you’re hot, there’s something real associated with that — just don’t go forcing a horrendous shot the very next time you touch the ball because of it.

Life lessons from Latrell Sprewell in new Priceline.com ad (VIDEO)

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Good on Latrell Sprewell for doing this, poking fun at his image.

It would have been funnier with P.J. Carlesimo, but David Robinson is a quality contrast. Well done, Priceline.

Carmelo Anthony on trade rumors: ‘I’m not going anywhere’

New York Knicks' Carmelo Anthony (7) smiles during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Miami Heat, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2016, in Miami. The Knicks defeated the Heat 98-90. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
Associated Press
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Carmelo Anthony has the hammer — he has a no-trade clause in his contract. If he doesn’t want to be traded, he’s not getting traded. End of story.

Also, he loves New York.

So when he went on SiriusXM NBA Radio Saturday and was asked about the trade rumors linking him to Cleveland, ‘Melo shot those down.

There were exploratory talks involving Kevin Love going to Boston — the Knicks might have been the third team in such a deal — but the buzz around Toronto (where the NBA World has gathered for the All-Star Game) is those talks have stalled. It’s not impossible that they are revived, but don’t bet on it.

The Cavaliers are a win-now team, and if they move the floor-spacing Love they need to bring in pieces that get them closer to a title. They don’t see that now.

As for Anthony, he re-signed in New York and said he wanted to be there (and get paid.). While there may be people in his camp that think him moving on would be a good for his career, the man himself doesn’t want to go anywhere. And Carmelo Anthony has the hammer.

LeBron James amused by fuss over Tyronn Lue coaching All-Stars

CLEVELAND, OH - JANUARY 30:  LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers high fives Head Coach Tyronn Lue during the game against the San Antonio Spurs on January 30, 2016 at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2016 NBAE  (Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images)
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TORONTO (AP) — LeBron James is amused over all the fuss that accompanied Tyronn Lue getting the chance to coach the Eastern Conference in Sunday’s All-Star Game.

The honor typically goes to the coaching staff of the team leading their respective conference at the break, provided that staff didn’t also coach in the game the year before. So when the Cleveland Cavaliers fired David Blatt and promoted Lue from his assistant spot to being the coach in charge, that meant Lue also got the All-Star duty.

And while it might seem strange to some, James was quick to point out Friday at the All-Star media day that Lue “would have been here anyways, even if coach Blatt was still our coach.”

James has been criticized for what many presume to be his role in Blatt’s dismissal, and the four-time MVP says he isn’t letting that perception bother him. He also didn’t take the bait when asked to describe differences between Blatt and Lue.

James’ answer: “Their height.”

For the record, Blatt (6-foot-3) is listed to be about three inches taller than Lue.

 

The time Kobe Bryant tried to recruit Dirk Nowitzki to the Lakers

DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 05:  Dirk Nowitzki #41 of the Dallas Mavericks greets Kobe Bryant #24 of the Los Angeles Lakers after a game at American Airlines Center on November 5, 2013 in Dallas, Texas.   NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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TORONTO — Kobe Bryant has been loyal to the Lakers for 20 seasons (if you ignore some “trade me” tantrums along the way). He’s also been über competitive.

Those same qualities are what he most appreciates about Dirk Nowitzki.

Kobe talked a little Dirk during his All-Star media availability Friday.

“Dirk and I have always had a great relationship because we’re both extremely competitive. Also both extremely loyal to our teams,” Bryant said.

“I’ll tell you a story about Dirk. He was up for free agency, and I knew what his response was going to be. But out of respect, everybody’s looking around at all these free agents, I felt I’d shoot you a text, if you want to come to L.A. He goes, ‘I would love to play with you, but Dallas is my home. This is my team. I’m not leaving here.’ So he and I think a lot alike in that regard.”

Nowitzki’s last couple free agencies have been mere formalities, nobody around the league thought he would leave Mark Cuban or Dallas. The only questions were money and years — in 2014 the Lakers reportedly offered the max to Nowitzki, who took three-years, $25 million from Dallas so the Mavs could rebuild their roster. It’s all part of that loyalty — and it’s worked out, Nowitzki and Cuban have a ring.

Kobe’s respect for Nowitzki was clear when Dirk nailed a game winner against the Lakers this season, Kobe just nodded his approval from the bench.

One of the best things the past couple seasons about Kobe, and especially this season with just about to retire Kobe, is that he is giving honest answers. He doesn’t care what people think. That leads to honest moments and great stories.