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The Extra Pass: Which non-All-Stars will make an All-NBA team?

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All-Star selections have become the de facto measure of good seasons, even though they’re really only the measure of good half seasons and rely on a gerrymandered system that splits players by conference.

But All-NBA teams – which evaluate a full year and aren’t split by conference – are a better metric for good seasons.

In the last eight years, 10 players have missed the All-Star Game and made an All-NBA team. Let’s have a quick look back on them and then project who the most likely players are to make the snubbed-to-honored jump this season.

2013

  • Second-team center: Marc Gasol
  • All-Stars he jumped: Dwight Howard (third team), Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez, Joakim Noah, Chris Bosh

Gasol’s teammate, Zach Randolph, made the All-Star Game, and coaches were probably leery of putting two Grizzles on the team. Gasol also won Defensive Player of the Year, and as voters reflected on that award postseason in a way they didn’t have to midseason, they likely better-saw Gasol’s value.

2012

  • Third-team center: Tyson Chandler
  • All-Stars he jumped: Marc Gasol, Roy Hibbert

Like Gasol in 2013, Chandler likely got a boost when voters, selecting him for Defensive Player of the Year, were forced to look more closely to that side of the ball. Plus, Carmelo Anthony took what might have been seen as the one spot reserved for a Knick.

2011

  • Third-team forwards: LaMarcus Aldridge, Zach Randolph
  • All-Stars they jumped: Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Paul Pierce

Aldridge was a pretty big snub this year – even LeBron said so – so the Portland big man didn’t  have much ground to make up. If anything, Randolph’s productio nfell off after the All-Star game. But they might have been competing against only the Western Conference All-Star forwards, because the East’s group just had to be filled out with someone from that conference. In perception, Duncan got his All-Star nod based on his career accomplishments and Griffin his based on his dunking ability. Those didn’t hold up for All-NBA. The other Western Conference All-Star forward, Love, played for a team that finished 17-65. A full season of futility is much harder to overlook than a half season of struggles.

2010

  • Third-Team center: Andrew Bogut
  • All-Stars they jumped: Al Horford, Chris Kaman

Bogut was about the same player before and All-Star break, but his Bucks were not. They went 24-27 before the All-Star Game and 22-9 after, raising Bogut’s stock during the “Feat the Deer” euphoria that ended with Milwaukee finishing second in the NBA in defensive rating.

2009

  • Third-team forward: Carmelo Anthony
  • All-Stars he jumped: Chris Bosh, Kevin Garnett, Danny Granger, Rashard Lewis, Amar’e Stoudemire, David West

Melo missed 15 games of the season’s first with an injury, and that’s likely what kept him from the All-Star Game. By the end of the year, 16 total missed games weren’t quite as significant.

2008

  • Second-team guard: Deron Williams; Third-team guards: Manu Ginobili, Tracy McGrady
  • All-Stars they jumped: Ray Allen, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Allen Iverson, Joe Johnson, Jason Kidd, Brandon Roy, Dwyane Wade

Wade got hurt, clearing All-NBA space. Otherwise, what a confusing mess. When there’s a deep group of players – see Western Conference forwards this year – it’s not that hard for a snubbed All-Star to make modest gains and pass several players.

2006

  • Third-team forward: Carmelo Anthony
  • All-Stars he jumped: Chris Bosh, Vince Carter, Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal, Paul Piece, Rasheed Wallace

This was a lengthy and impressive list of players Melo passed. In his first elite season, it likely just took everyone a full year to really realize he was for real.

So, based on that recent history, which non All-Stars are most likely to make an All-NBA team this season?

Honorable mention: Arron Afflalo, Andrew Bogut, Mike Conley, Goran Dragic, Andre Drummond, Tim Duncan, David Lee, Nikola Pekovic, Lance Stephenson

5. Kyle Lowry

When a group other than NBA coaches, who’ve notoriously feuded with Lowry over the years, is making the selections, he should fare much better. The Raptors’ de facto designated All-Star spot went to the less-deserving DeMar DeRozan, but that type of thinking won’t matter as much at the end of the year.

4. Russell Westbrook

If all goes well, Westbrook will play 52 games this season. In 2007, Wade made the All-NBA third team while playing just 51 games. It will require perfect health once he returns and few signs of rust, but Westbrook has a shot.

3. DeAndre Jordan

Jordan is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and as you can see above, those usually fare well. Only three centers made the All-Star Game this year: Dwight Howard, Roy Hibbert and Joakim Noah. Jordan would have had a strong case over Noah if they were in the same conference. In April, that will no longer matter.

2. DeMarcus Cousins

As noted with Jordan, third-team center is primed for the taking. Cousins got squeezed out in the forward-deep West, but if he keeps producing like this – proving his value over a full season like Melo did in 2006 – he’ll be hard to overlook.

1. Anthony Davis

Davis should fall off this list when Adam Silver names him Kobe Bryant’s injury replacement. But in case that doesn’t happen, Davis has already begun to build a strong All-NBA case. Plus, he’s just getting better as the year progresses, so he’ll likely look even more impressive by season’s end. He could make an All-NBA team at forward or center, further boosting his chances.

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Suns 102, Pacers 94: Snub Goran Dragic will you? He came out pushing the tempo (the game had 100 possessions) and ran past the Pacers defense to score 28 points (on 21 shots) plus dish out 7 assists. Phoenix went on a 17-5 run in the first half and in the second quarter led by as many as 19. The way the Suns get out and run is a matchup problem for the Pacers, but they started to figure it out. The Pacers cranked up the defensive pressure in the third quarter (they switched Paul George onto Dragic) and won the frame 25-11 and it looked like they would come back, but every time Indiana made a run Phoenix answered. The Morris Brothers combined for 31 points. Roy Hibbert had 26 points to lead the Pacers.

Knicks 117, Cavaliers 86: Cleveland would trade Anthony Bennett straight up for Tim Hardaway Jr. right now. As for the game, the Knicks have won four straight games now, and while only one of those was against a team that is not a tire fire (Charlotte) it doesn’t matter. The Knicks are playing the small-ball lineup everyone called for (with Carmelo Anthony at the four) and it works. Like it did last year. Thursday night the Knicks went on an 18-2 run just a couple minutes into the first quarter and the game was over at that point, basically. Carmelo Anthony had 18 of his 29 in that first quarter and he got to sit down and play cheerleader for the fourth. Kyrie Irving had 24 for the Cavaliers and didn’t get much help (Dion Waiters had 21 but 16 came in the fourth when the game was all but over).

Warriors 111, Clippers 92: This was the third blowout game of the day. Golden State went on a 13-2 run in the first quarter, started to really pull away in the second and ran away with it. Stephen Curry had 12 in the first quarter, David Lee had 10 and both ended the game with 22. The Clippers looked like a team on the second night of a back-to-back, ninth game in 14 days with eight of those games on the road. They looked tired. Blake Griffin had 27 and was 7-of-12 from the perimeter (if you say all he can do is dunk you simply don’t watch him play) but even he looked flat.

Klay Thompson masters scoring while barely having the ball

Golden State Warriors' Klay Thompson follows through on a shot during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game against the Indiana Pacers on Monday, Dec. 5, 2016, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
AP Photo/Ben Margot
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Warriors guard Klay Thompson possessed the ball for 1:28 last night.

Teammate Ian Clark had it for 2:05.

Obviously, Thompson made a little more of his opportunities.

Thompson scored an insane 60 points in 29 minutes in Golden State’s win over the Pacers.

Remarkably, he didn’t hijack the offense to produce those eye-popping numbers. Thompson shot a cool 21-of-33 from the field, and 20 of his baskets were assisted. In addition to Clark, Stephen Curry,Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Shaun Livingston all possessed the ball longer than Thompson.

In fact, nobody has come close to scoring so much while having the ball so little.

Here are the highest scoring games since the NBA began publishing possession time in 2013-14, marking points in time of possession:

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The the second-lowest time of possession on that leaderboard was also by Thompson. He scored 52 points in 2:40 of possession against the Kings in 2015.

But even that game required more than a minute of extra touch time.

Who has scored the most points in a game while possessing the ball for fewer than two minutes? Again, Thompson litters the list – with last night blowing the rest out of the water:

  • Klay Thompson (GSW-IND 12-5-16):60 in 1:28
  • Klay Thompson (GSW-DAL 1-27-16):45 in 1:40
  • Bojan Bogdanovic (BRK-PHI 3-15-16):44 points in 1:53
  • Klay Thompson (GSW-PHO 12-16-15):43 in 1:17
  • Anthony Davis (NOP-UTA 11-22-14):43 points in 1:36

Maybe Thompson knew what he was talking about when he said he wasn’t sacrificing for Durant. Even with his usage rate down slightly, Thompson has still found ways to flourish. He gets hot in a hurry.

It does take him a while to cool down, though.

Stephen Curry runs from bench into tunnel celebrating Klay Thompson 3-pointer (video)

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Ever been so excited you didn’t know to react?

That was Stephen Curry as Klay Thompson worked his way toward 60 points in 29 minutes, running from the bench toward midcourt then doubling back and heading right into the tunnel.

Eventually, Curry found his senses and tried to put out the fire.

Donatas Motiejunas’ agent, B.J. Armstrong: ‘We have our rights. We’re not going to show up’

NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 12:  Donatas Motiejunas #20 of the Houston Rockets and Bojan Bogdanovic #44 of the Brooklyn Nets fight for the loose ball at the Barclays Center on January 12, 2015 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.The Houston Rockets defeated the Brooklyn Nets 113-99. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
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After the Rockets matched the Nets’ offer sheet, Donatas Motiejunas skipped his Houston physical today.

It doesn’t sound as if Motiejunas will become more cooperative anytime soon.

Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle:

Unlike previous examples of Armstrong making foolish points to protect his clients, this could be a path that bites his client.

Motiejunas’ rights here were collectively bargained, and they’re pretty clear here.

He has a right not to undergo the physical within two days of Houston matching, but that means the Rockets can hold him in limbo through March 1. On March 2, his offer sheet would become void, and he’d be a restricted free agent – and unable to sign with Brooklyn for a year. Houston could also elect to formalize its offer match or make him a restricted free agent – still without the ability to sign with Brooklyn for a year – at any point between now and March 1.

Motiejunas probably wants the Rockets to “fail” him on his physical, which would send him to the Nets under the terms of the offer sheet. I doubt he’d even need to actually come in for a checkup if the failing is prearranged. But that’d require Houston general manager Daryl Morey squandering an asset out of the goodness of his heart.

Otherwise, Motiejunas is heading toward exercising his right to not get paid – while losing the ability for one year to sign with the one team outside Houston we know wants him.

Report: Donatas Motiejunas no-shows physical after Rockets match Nets’ offer

Donatas Motiejunas, Kenneth Faried
AP Photo/David Zalubowski
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The Nets’ signed Rockets restricted free agent Donatas Motiejunas to an offer sheet. Houston elected to match.

Case closed?

Hardly.

Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle:

Houston has a right to demand Motiejunas undergo a physical within two days of exercising its matching rights, which it did yesterday. Motiejunas is requires to answer questions truthfully and supply requested medical information.

If Motiejunas fails to meet those requirements, he hangs in limbo until the Rockets decide his fate.

At any time between now and March 1, they could elect to undo their offer-sheet match. That would invalidate Motiejunas’ offer sheet and make him a restricted free agent again, and the Nets couldn’t sign him for a year. On March 2, the same effect will become automatic.

I don’t see what Motiejunas gains by not reporting. If he fails his Houston physical, he’d go to Brooklyn on the terms of the offer sheet.

By not undergoing the physical, he goes nowhere.