San Antonio Spurs v Miami Heat - Game 7 GM survey predicts another big season for Heat, LeBron James


The annual GM survey is pretty much a spot check on the conventional wisdom around the NBA. It’s not the place you see daring picks or gain deep insight. It’s generally a lot of guys picking the favorite.

This year’s survey shows the conventional wisdom is “good luck beating LeBron James the Heat.”

In the survey just released by the NBA, 75.9 percent of GMs picked the Miami Heat to win the NBA title, with the Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs each coming in second with 6.9 percent of the vote. Even more GMs picked the Heat than last season, despite how hard a three-peat has proven over the years.

Also, 69 percent of GMs picked LeBron to win his fifth MVP trophy. Kevin Durant received 24.1 percent of the votes to come in second, with Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul getting votes as well.

The entire survey was a LeBron love fest. He was picked as the player that forces the most adjustments by the opponent (66.7 percent), the player GMs want to start a franchise with (89.7 percent, Durant was second and Kyrie Irving third), and best small forward in the NBA (86.7 percent).

Orlando’s Victor Oladipo won going away for Rookie of the year with 80 percent of the vote (with Trey Burke down he is the big favorite now). GMs also picked him to be the best player out of this class five years from now.

One area where GMs seem divided is who comes out of the West: San Antonio won with 40 percent, Oklahoma City had 36.7 percent and the Los Angeles Clippers were at 20 percent. (Houston got 3.3 percent; GMs are not buying in there yet.)

Other things that were not a surprise include Tony Parker being selected as the best international player, Chris Paul being named the best point guard, Gregg Popovich being names best head coach and the coach that runs the best offense, and Golden State being named the team that is the most fun to watch.

But there were some interesting notes:

• GMs picked James Harden as the best shooting guard in the NBA (56.7 percent), with Kobe Bryant second (20 percent) and then Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Paul George tied (6.7 percent) and Dwyane Wade sixth. Durant got hurt in these polls because it’s not easy to define his position.

• Dwight Howard won best center in the NBA going away (65.5 percent) with Marc Gasol second.

• Howard was also named the best defensive player in the NBA in the poll, with LeBron second. Best perimeter defender went to Tony Allen of the Grizzlies (36.7 percent) with LeBron James second, Paul George third and Avery Bradley, Andre Iguodala and Kawhi Leonard tied for fourth.

• GMs overwhelmingly like the Nets to beat out the Knicks for the Atlantic Division crown, with 75.9 percent of them picking Brooklyn.

• GMs see a virtual dead heat between the Pacers and Bulls in the Central division, with Indiana getting 51.7 percent of the vote to Chicago’s 48.3 percent.

• Anthony Davis of the Pelicans was picked as the player most likely to have a breakout season (27.6 percent of the vote) with Andre Drummond of the Pistons coming in second.

• GMs picked Detroit as the most improved team in the league this year.

• Boston’s Kelly Olynyk was named the steal of the draft.

51 Questions: Is Mike Malone the key to bringing Denver back?

Michael Malone
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PBT is previewing the 2015-16 NBA season by tackling 51 big questions that we can’t wait to see answered once play tips off. We will answer one a day right up to the start of the season Oct. 27. Today’s question:

Is Mike Malone the key to bringing Denver back?

One incident sums up how bad things had gotten in Denver under the Brian Shaw regime — breaking a fourth-quarter huddle in the final game of February, Nuggets players chanted “1-2-3-six weeks!”

The players didn’t like the coach, some of them didn’t like each other, and with six weeks and 24 games left in the season they had checked out. The young players (and some of the veterans) partied so much Shaw canceled shootarounds because guys couldn’t roll in for them in the morning. Shaw had lost the team long before when he’d tried to fit square pegs into the triangle holes of his offense, and it spiraled out of control from there. The culture in Denver was broken.

Mike Malone was brought in to repair that culture.

The Jeff Van Gundy disciple has shown he can do that before. Malone was starting to build something in Sacramento (they started last season 9-6 before DeMarcus Cousins got sick), where he was asked to repair a franchise culture that by the end of the Maloof era was something akin to the Lord of the Flies. Malone also turned out to be the one coach who had gotten through to Cousins. Even with his defensive mindset and Cousins in the paint, Malone had the Kings playing at the eighth-fastest pace in the league in pace, but the Kings’ owner wanted to play faster (and maybe didn’t want to miss out on the chance to hire George Karl), so Malone got sacked.

The question becomes, is Malone alone going to turn things around in Denver and bring them back to relevance?

Not alone, and not just in one season, but he will get them on the right track.

The first step to show management was behind Malone was the trading of Ty Lawson. No doubt when focused Lawson is a quality point guard (as Houston likely benefits from this season), but he was part of the problem in the end in Denver, to the point of picking up two DUIs in six months (he checked into a rehab facility after the second one). He had mentally checked out and his example was an issue the Nuggets needed to change.

That turns the keys for the offense over to rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who impressed a lot of people at Summer League after bailing on SMU to play in China last season. But he’s still a rookie with a long way to go — as the 15 turnovers in his first two preseason games attest. Things that worked in China and Summer League don’t fly against an NBA defense.

With Mudiay at the point and a team that plays half its games at high altitude, Monroe wants to take advantage of that and get out and run. Expect the Nuggets to get back to their traditional up-tempo games, but with some things Malone loves to run (such as the Rick Adelman corner action).

But for Malone, all things — including good transition basketball — starts with defense. You have to get stops and steals to run well, and the Nuggets were 26th in the league in defensive rating last season (105.5 points allowed per 100 possessions). In the first two Nuggets preseason games, that was the Nuggets focus (with mixed results).

Malone’s challenge starts with getting Kenneth Faried to buy in and play as hard on defense as he does on offense — something Faried has never done. Faried has been a defensive minus since he entered the NBA and that becomes one of Malone’s first major projects (even if it’s just to boost Faried’s trade value). Faried, who clashed with Shaw over his role, has said he’s felt energized under Malone, now the coach just has to steer that energy to the defensive end of the court.

Malone will be searching for the right center to put next to Faried, and I expect that will mean a lot of Jusuf Nurkic (who is young and shows it at times). But also expect to see some small-ball lineups with Faried at the five. Something like Mudiay, Randy Foye, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, and Faried. A lineup with some athleticism and shooting that could put up points, but would they get any stops? If Gary Harris slots in for Foye, does that help the defense (Harris is guy Nuggets fans may see more and more of as the season goes on).

The roster is a work in progress, and if you were to bet on the Nuggets doing one thing this season, it should be making trades. Things are going to change.

There are nice pieces on the Nuggets, but not enough of them and with some real questions about how it all fits together. This is not a playoff team this season, not in the West.

But it’s a team that Malone could have playing a lot better late in the season than at the beginning, once some of those questions start to be answered, and the young players gain experience. That should be the goal in Denver. Begin to change the culture, get buy-in on the system, get guys playing hard again rather than dreaming of Cancun vacations by February. Change can be incremental, but Malone will start the change.

Then in a couple of years, you’ve got the team you want.

Well, so long as the Nuggets ownership doesn’t get impatient and decide it needs to change directions again.

Another Pelicans center down: Omer Asik out three weeks

Omer Asik, Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver
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The Pelicans will have to play Anthony Davis at center now.

With backup center Alexis Ajinca already sidelined, starting center Omer Asik suffered his own injury.

Pelicans release:

The New Orleans Pelicans announced today that center Omer Asik is expected to miss the next three weeks with a right calf strain. The injury occurred during Wednesday’s practice.

If that three-week timeline is firm, Asik would miss two regular season games – at Warriors and at Trail Blazers.

Davis figured to be the most natural fit at center in Alvin Gentry’s up-tempo scheme. What happens if the Pelicans excel with him there and then stumble once Asik and Ajinca return? Because New Orleans had Bird Rights for Asik and Ajinca, re-signing them made some sense. And once they’re re-signed, Gentry must find a role for them. But that could get harder if it becomes obvious the team is best with Davis at center.

As long as Asik and Ajinca are out, Kendrick Perkins probably moves into the rotation. Jeff Adrien could also see minutes at center. Suddenly, Adrien, on an unguaranteed contract, has a much better chance of making the regular-season roster. Ryan Anderson probably plays more at power forward, too, with Davis logging more time at center.