Welcome to PBT’s regular roundtable on issues around the NBA, where our writers weigh in on the topic of the day.
Today: Who will win the NBA Rookie of the Year Award?
Kurt Helin: There’s a formula to this — you need a guy with the ball in his hand on a bad team that is going to ask him to make plays and put up numbers. Damian Lillard did that last season, and seven of the last eight ROY winners fit that formula (Blake Griffin being the exception). The guy that fits the mold for me this year is Trey Burke in Utah. He is going to be the starting point guard for a bad Jazz team that will need him to make plays. And we saw from his time at Michigan he can make some plays. Utah could use a win here too — it will be about the lone piece of good news out of their season.
Brett Pollakoff: I agree on the formula part, but am going with a more conventional choice. Victor Oladipo in Orlando is skilled enough, and will have plenty of opportunity with the ball in his hands playing both guard positions. He should have no trouble putting up numbers immediately in the Magic’s system, whether points or assists.
Burke is a solid choice, though Im not convinced Tyrone Corbin (coaching without a net, by the way) will let him go as unchecked as Lillard was allowed to in Portland last season — especially without the same skills as a floor general that Lillard possesses.
DJ Foster: Kurt, you’re right about the formula. On top of that, no player selected outside of the top-10 has won the award since Mark Jackson (he’s a coach now! We’re all so old!) did it way back in 1988. So if we stick with guards taken in the top-10, Trey Burke is the most logical choice. C.J. McCollum is hurt, Michael Carter-Williams will play on a team only people in hostage situations should watch, and Victor Oladipo’s contributions won’t pop out on a losing team. It’s Burke’s award to lose, in my mind.
Darius Soriano: Not only do I agree with Kurt’s formula, I also agree with the rest of the group that Burke and Oladipo are the frontrunners to win the award. If I had to choose between those two, I’d go with Burke simply because I think Oladipo will be competing for shots with too many other wings in Orlando for much of this season. Not only are Jameer Nelson and Arron Afflalo likely to maintain key roles, but Tobias Harris and Maurice Harkless are both up and coming prospects who flashed good potential last year (especially Harris). That’s a lot of mouths to feed on the perimeter and I envision Oladipo settling into a role where he mostly impacts the game on defense and by doing the dirty work that helped define his college career. That may help his team win games, but it won’t get him the rookie of the year award.
Your reminder that Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the best together.
DeRozan was asked about Lowry’s long 3-pointers after the Raptors’ win over the Timberwolves last night.
- DeRozan: “”Them shots be lucky. … To me, it’s a bad shot.”
- Lowry (off camera): “Every shot you shoot is a bad shot, analytic-wise.”
That’s not quite what the analytics say, but I won’t let the facts get in the way of a superb diss.
The Spurs fell behind by 18 and eventually lost to the Bulls, 95-91, last night – which begged the question:
Does San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich bear any responsibility for his team’s lack of early intensity?
Jabari Young of the San Antonio Express-News:
I don’t remember playing tonight. I didn’t play. Guys get a lot of money to be ready to play. No Knute Rockne speeches. It’s your job. If you’re a plumber and you don’t do your job, you don’t get any work. I don’t think a plumber needs a pep talk. If a doctor botches operations, he’s not a doctor anymore. If you’re a basketball player, you come ready. It’s called maturity. It’s your job.
Like it or not, motivation is part of an NBA coach’s job.
But that’s also precisely what Popovich is doing.
His credentials dwarf any other coach’s. He can play to his own ego and absolve himself of responsibility – and players will seek to please him. His years of success have earned him the ability to motivate this way, a method no other coach could use without alienating his team.
Once the Rockets let Donatas Motiejunas back into free agency, this was only a matter of time.
Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports:
This sounds remarkably similar to the salaries and incentives set in the original offer sheet from the Nets. But remember, the Rockets didn’t match some of those bonuses that Brooklyn would have been bound to.
So, why not hold Motiejunas to what became a four-year, $31 million offer sheet once matched? Houston got something in return – a later trigger date on guaranteeing Motiejunas’ 2017-18 salary. Originally, that decision had to be made March 1 – which would’ve meant dropping Motiejunas from the team this season to prevent his salary from counting next season. Now, the Rockets can make that call in July, after this season is complete.
The following two Julys, Houston will also have a choice on guaranteeing Motiejunas’ upcoming salary or dropping him.
Essentially, Motiejunas is signing the most lucrative Hinkie Special in NBA history. If he plays well and stays healthy, the Rockets have Motiejunas at an affordable rate. If he struggles or his back injuries flare up, they can drop him with little to no penalty.
After they backed themselves into this corner, Motiejunas and his agent, B.J. Armstrong, didn’t do so bad. Considering the similarity between this contract and the Nets’ original offer sheet, it seems Houston helped Armstrong save face after a bungled free agency (which is easier to accept when you’re adding a talented reserve to a formidable team).
But for how little is guaranteed and how much control the Rockets hold over the next four years, wouldn’t Motiejunas have been better off accepting the $4,433,683 qualifying offer?
The Rockets had Donatas Motiejunas in a bind.
He was beholden to them on a four-year, $31 million deal and unable to sign with other teams. Motiejunas’ choices: Report for a physical or wait in limbo.
But apparently Houston has allowed him out of that constraint.
Marc Stein of ESPN:
This means Motiejunas can’t sign with the Nets, who signed him to the original offer sheet, for one year.
I bet it also means Motiejunas and Houston have agreed to a new contract. Otherwise, why release him from the offer sheet? The Rockets would be giving up a tremendous amount of leverage out of the goodness of their hearts – unless this is just a prelude to a new deal with Houston.