Tobias Harris

ProBasketballTalk 2013-14 Preview: The Orlando Magic


Last season: It was a season of transition. The Magic started out near .500 (12-13) but when Glen Davis got injured things fell apart. The Magic won 8 games the rest of the year and by the trade deadline they had fully embraced the rebuild, meaning J.J. Redick was the first out the door in a six-team trade that brought Orlando Tobias Harris. The Magic ended the season with just 20 wins, the worst record in the NBA.

Signature highlight from last season: Not a lot to choose from, but how about some Tobias Harris.

Key player changes: It was a pretty quiet summer. The biggest addition this offseason was Victor Oladipo, who was drafted No. 2 and is expected to be key to whatever is ultimately built in Orlando (that doesn’t mean I think he’s the point guard of the future). They also brought in Jason Maxiell as a free agent. Gone are Al Harrington, Josh McRoberts, Dequan Jones and Beono Udrih.

Keys to the Magic’s season:

Just how good is Tobias Harris? Orlando is all about player development the next few years and there may be no bigger test of that than Harris.

He showed a little promise but could barely get off the bench in Milwaukee, then he comes to Orlando, gets an opportunity and averages 17.3 points a game. He was a revelation. That said, his shooting efficiency numbers were just average (he shot 45.3 percent overall, 31 percent from three with a true shooting percentage of 52.4 percent for Orlando). It begs the question: Is he a legitimate future All-Star player or is he a nice player just putting up numbers on a bad team? Is his ultimate role really gunning sixth man on a contender or something more than that? His game has holes, for example his defense on the perimeter needs work, also he needs to attack more and not settle for jumpers on offense. He’s going to get a lot of minutes this season and we will see how his game develops. We’re going to find out just how good he is the next couple years.

When do Jameer Nelson and Glen Davis get traded? We can probably throw Arron Afflalo on that list, too. The Magic are rebuilding and guys who are not part of the long-term future are going to get shopped around (Nelson has already admitted he knows he’s on the block). Davis could be hard to move with that contract ($6.6 million the season after this one) unless he shows his foot is fully healthy, but we know by the middle of the season there are contenders always looking for big men who can help them out.

Also, how do all the trade rumors that will swirl effect this young team?

Can Jacque Vaughn build a winning culture amid all the losing? It is all about player development with the Magic — how does Victor Oladipo come along? Andrew Nicholson? Nikola Vucevic? Tobias Harris? Mo Harkless? There are interesting pieces.

The key is keeping them working on doing things right amid all the losses that will come — they cannot let losing infect the team culture.

Vaughn seemed to do that last year — Orlando played hard for their coach. Not well, but the effort was there. If felt like a foundation was being laid for the future. Now they need to take a step forward and keep building on that — if the defense or effort slide that will be the problem. They are not going to be good this season but you can see where something good can come in a few years if they keep developing. If the losing infects the culture then Orlando has real issues.

Why you should watch the Magic: They have some interesting young players — Oladipo, Harris, and even Mo Harkless. How they use them, how they develop them are the questions, but these players are intriguing.

By the way, the Magic may not be as bad as we expect. If they can get everyone healthy (we’re looking at you, Glen Davis) their starting five to start the season is Jameer Nelson, Arron Afflalo, Tobias Harris, Glen Davis and Nikola Vucevic, with Victor Oladipo, Andrew Nicholson and Mo Harkless off the bench. That’s potentially pretty entertaining.

Prediction: 25-57. Call it rebuilding, call it organizational tanking, call it whatever you want, this team is all in for the upcoming draft. Whether it ends up being Wiggins or Randal or Smart, they are going after some big talent in the top five of the draft board. The Magic have some interesting young pieces to develop, they could be a team on the rise in a couple years, but they need one more big piece and they are going after it through this draft.

51Q: Does Ty Lawson vault the Rockets into the top tier of championship contenders?

DENVER, CO - MARCH 07:  James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets controls the ball against Ty Lawson #3 of the Denver Nuggets at Pepsi Center on March 7, 2015 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockets defeated the Nuggets 114-100. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
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I see five clear upper-echelon championship contenders –  Warriors, Spurs, Clippers, Thunder and Cavaliers.

Do the Rockets belong in that group, or do they fill the next tier by themselves?

Ty Lawson – acquired for pennies on the dollar – could put Houston over the top.

But, really, this premise might not be fair to the Rockets. They earned the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference last season and reached the conference finals last season. James Harden finished second in MVP voting. Dwight Howard looked like a star during the playoffs. The supporting cast – Trevor Ariza, Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas, Patrick Beverley, Corey Brewer and even Jason Terry – played better than anyone expected. Young players like Clint Capela, K.J. McDaniels, Sam Dekker and Montrezl Harrell could make a leap at any moment.

There’s a case to be made we should have taken Houston more seriously even before trading for Lawson.

I didn’t, though, and I don’t think many others did either.

I suspect one of the biggest reasons is the Rockets’ balance. Houston – 12th in points scored per possession, sixth in points allowed per possession – was one of only two teams to win more than 51 games last season without ranking top five in either category. Of the seven teams with so many victories, the Hawks – sixth, seventh – were the only other. Atlanta was a darling team, winning 60 games after going 38-44 the season prior. The Rockets’ modest win increase, from 54 to 56, drew less attention.

But balance shouldn’t be punished. Houston’s surprisingly strong defense should be celebrated. Lawson might push its middling offense over the top.

There are reasons to question that, though.

The biggest is Lawson’s sobriety. If he’s not focused and engaged, this all goes out the window. His comments about going to rehab only because it was court-ordered raise doubts, though they hardly foretell anything.

Let’s say Lawson’s off-court problems are behind him. How big of an upgrade is he? The Rockets already had a pretty good point guard who fit well with Harden in Beverley. Lawson is a clear offensive upgrade, but in the biggest moments, the ball will still run through Harden. At that point, would you rather have Beverley or Lawson on the floor? Beverley is a far superior defender, and his off-ball offensive game isn’t far from Lawson’s. Beverley is is a fine spot-up shooter, and Lawson’s strengths involve having the ball and creating. Lawson’s biggest boost could come when Harden sits, but that was fewer than 12 minutes per game last season.

Sure, a secondary ball-handler could ease pressure on Harden throughout a long regular season. Lawson and Harden can take turns running the attack.

But we’re talking about title contention, and in those high-leverage situations, it’s Harden’s show. How much does Lawson matter then?

The Rockets have a chance to win a championship. As good a chance as the NBA’s five best teams? I’m not so sure.

UNLV following Kentucky’s lead with combine for NBA scouts

Goodluck Okonoboh, Patrick McCaw
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Kentucky held a two-day combine last season for NBA scouts.

Now, LSU and UNLV are following suit.

Rob Dauster of NBC Sports:

The Runnin’ Rebels will hold their event on October 23rd and 24th at the Mendenhall Center, UNLV’s practice facility, sources told The expectation is that all 30 NBA teams will be in attendance.

LSU has potential No. 1 pick Ben Simmons and another first-round prospect in Tim Quarterman.

UNLV features lottery prospect Stephen Zimmerman.

This won’t replace scouts attending games and watching practices, but the fact that all 30 teams plan to attend shows how seriously the pro league takes these. No college team wanted John Calipari to have that competitive advantage in recruiting, so the smart ones are leveling the field with their own combines. Soon, more college teams will follow.

As the calendar gets packed, NBA teams might have to pick and choose which they attend. At that point, we might get little clues about which prospects they’re scouting hardest.