Is Greg Oden going to make a difference in Miami? The only answer is “I don’t know.”


The last time Greg Oden stepped on an NBA court to take part in a game it was Dec. 5, 2009. That would be 1,337 days ago. Or, 191 weeks, if you prefer. And there is a good chance you will not see Oden at the start of next season either — he said he wasn’t sure if he’d be ready when the season tips off. His goal is to be healthy at the season’s end. That’s a good goal, but reality is this is a guy that has had seven knee surgeries and three microfracture surgeries by age 25.

All of which is to say, temper your expectations here.

If you think signing Oden to a two-year is a big improvement for Miami, you’re way, way out in front of reality. If you picture Oden swatting way a Derrick Rose shot at the rim in the second round of the playoffs next year, or bodying up Roy Hibbert in the conference finals, you may never see those images with your eyes.

Could he do those things? Maybe, if healthy.

Will he do those things? I don’t know.

Neither do you. Neither does Oden or Pat Riley or Nostradamus or anyone else. Nobody knows if his body will hold up.

Every report I heard out of his workout was that he moved pretty well and seems in good shape. Witnesses said he looks the part of an NBA player again. I hope he is, I want to see him on a court and to have some redemption. But we simply do not know how this is going to go down — maybe he is playing at Thanksgiving, maybe at Christmas, maybe All Star weekend. Maybe he plays 20 games and has to shut it down. The Heat have said they planned to ease him back into the rotation and that was attractive to Oden in making his decision. He felt the pressure was off him.

This was a gamble by the Heat, but a good one for the price tag — they are paying him the league minimum. If he pans out and can give them 12-15 solid minutes a night come the playoffs, it will be almost a steal. What he came into the league with as strengths — defense in the paint, rebounds — are things the Heat need. When he has played in the NBA, he’s played pretty well (PER through 82 games of 19.5). Matching up with size is clearly an issue for the Heat (if you watched the playoffs last year) and maybe Oden can help them deal with it.


But based on history, don’t put a lot of stock in it.

It is far, far too early to think of him as a difference maker. He was a good risk for a prospect big man. Nothing more.

PBT Extra bold prediction previews: Clippers ready to win West?

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With our PBT Extra videos, we are previewing the entire NBA by using bold predictions, starting in the Pacific Division (we already did the Warriors).

Some of those predictions come from fans on Twitter where I had sent out a request, including the bold prediction for the Clippers.

It could happen, they are certainly contenders. But two things need to happen.

The big one is their defense, which was middle of the pack last season, needs to move into the top 10 (and DeAndre Jordan needs to play consistently like a guy who is third in Defensive Player of the Year voting).

Second is the new and improved bench unit of Lance Stephenson, Josh Smith, and Jamal Crawford (he’s not new) need to mesh into a unit. Those are three guys who like to create for themselves and make questionable shot choices, getting them play well with others could be a bumpy road.

Stephen Curry gives high five while his shot is in air (video)

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Stephen Curry said the defending-champion Warriors would have no problem picking up where they left off.

His swagger certainly remains intact.