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Andre Iguodala a riskier free agent than meets the eye

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Which of these players would you have most liked on your team last season: Andres Nocioni, Baron Davis, Brendan Haywood, Charlie Bell, Chris Mihm, Corey Maggette, Damien Wilkins, Earl Watson, Elton Brand, Fred Jones, Hedo Turkoglu, Joel Przybilla, John Salmons, Lamar Odom, Mehmet Okur, Metta World Peace, Michael Redd, Rashard Lewis, Rasual Butler, Ricky Davis, Ronald Murray, Stromile Swift, Tracy McGrady, Trenton Hassell or Walter Herrmann?

It’s hardly an inspiring list. World Peace was an alright starter for the Lakers. Brand took a lesser role with the Mavericks, and though his production slipped from previous years, it was still pretty good. Lamar Odom fit in well as a Clippers backup. Otherwise, the list is comprised of bit players or guys out of the NBA.

But all those players have something in common. They were 29 years old during the 2008-09 season. Four years later, they’re not nearly as appealing.

It’s a lesson to keep in mind as teams pursue Andre Iguodala, who opted out of the final year of a contract that would have paid him more than $16 million in order to seek a long-term deal.

Iguodala is an excellent defender and great in transition, two skills that typically don’t age well. He’s a good passer and a passable shooter, so it’s unlikely he’ll completely fall off the map, but any team pursuing him won’t be doing it for his passing and shooting.

A larger sample provides a reasonable expectation for Iguodala. Between the 1999-00 and 2008-09 seasons, 274 players have played a season at 29 years old. Here’s how their production, as measured by win shares, progressed from their 29-year-old seasons into the four following (adjusting for the lockout shortened 2011-12 season):

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If Iguodala declines at the same rate – and the cracks already began to show last season, when his win-share total fell to 5.6 – his production will mirror, in order, the 2012-13 production of Tony Allen then Corey Brewer then Wayne Ellington then Evan Turner during the next four years. These aren’t stylistic comparisons, just using current players to set a comparison in production only.

Of course, this method for determining expected value includes players who fell out of the NBA counting as zero, but that’s intentional. Quite often, players can no longer play at an NBA level as they get into their 30s. We see the players like Steve Nash who defy age and remember them, forgetting about players like Chris Mihm who fall by the wayside. That inaccurately shifts our perception of how big a deal age is in the NBA.

I don’t expect Iguodala to fall out of the league before his next contract ends, even if it lasts four years, because he’d be beginning the deal with a higher starting point. But the relative decline of lesser players still informs an expected track for Iguodala.

Iguodala has plenty of value, and a team looking to win right now might knowingly accept the risk of his contract becoming an albatross just to get his immediate production. But teams should enter long-term negotiations with that risk in mind.

Cavs waive veteran Dahntay Jones, but he could return to Cleveland

CLEVELAND, OH - JUNE 16: Dahntay Jones #30 of the Cleveland Cavaliers drives to the basket against Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors in the first half in Game 6 of the 2016 NBA Finals at Quicken Loans Arena on June 16, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
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On the last day of the regular season, the Cavaliers signed veteran wing Dahntay Jones. He played 15 games for them in the playoffs, including six games in the Finals. On Saturday, the Cavs announced that they waived him to stop his salary from becoming guaranteed, but ESPN.com’s Marc Stein reports that there’s a chance he could be back in Cleveland.

Jones isn’t much more than an end-of-the-bench guy at this point, but if Cavs GM David Griffin wants to keep the group that won the 2016 title together, there’s no harm in bringing Jones back as a veteran locker-room presence.

Report: Carlos Boozer reaches deal to play in China

LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 07:  Carlos Boozer #5 and Dwight Buycks #20 of the Los Angeles Lakers react to a laker foul during the game against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center on April 7, 2015 in Los Angeles, California.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and condition of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
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For the first time since 2002, Carlos Boozer was without an NBA home last season. Following his 2014-15 campaign with the Lakers, he was not signed by a team last season, despite having interest from the Bucks and others. Now, he’s going to continue his playing career in China, according to international basketball reporter David Pick:

Boozer is 34 and at this point in his career, probably wouldn’t command much more than a minimum deal in the NBA, or any promise of extended playing time. In China, he can earn more money and have a more prominent role on a team. This is a win-win for him.

Judge refuses to dismiss sex suit against Derrick Rose

MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 07:  Derrick Rose #1 of the Chicago Bulls looks on during a game against the Miami Heat  at American Airlines Arena on April 7, 2016 in Miami, Florida.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES (AP) A federal judge has refused to dismiss a lawsuit alleging New York Knicks player Derrick Rose and two friends drugged and gang-raped a woman.

On Wednesday, federal Judge Michael W. Fitzgerald said a jury must decide whether to believe Rose’s contention that the woman, a former lover, consented to group sex at her home in 2013.

The case could now go to trial in October, when Knicks training camp gets underway.

Messages left for Rose’s agent, B.J. Armstrong, were not immediately returned Saturday.

According to court records, the woman had been drinking at Rose’s Beverly Hills, California, home, and a friend helped her return home, where she vomited and fell asleep.

The woman’s $21.5 million sexual battery lawsuit contends that Rose and the other two defendants entered her apartment the next morning and raped her.

The woman believes that an unknown drug was slipped into her drink at Rose’s home, and she “did not do any pregnancy tests or a rape kit because she was terribly ashamed and embarrassed,” according to her lawsuit.

Rose has denied the allegations, and his lawyer has labeled the lawsuit an extortion attempt.

Defense court filings contend that the woman consented to the sex acts, invited the men to her apartment and buzzed them in through security.

In denying Rose’s request to toss out the lawsuit, the judge said Rose’s version of events “could well convince a reasonable jury,” but there was substantial disagreement over the facts and a jury also could conclude the opposite.

Rose, 27, was the NBA’s 2011 MVP with the Chicago Bulls, but he has struggled with knee injuries and was traded to the Knicks in June.

Warriors add Willie Green as assistant coach

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It’s a good thing to be on the Golden State coaching staff — Alvin Gentry rode it to the head coaching spot in New Orleans, Luke Walton to his “dream job” with the Lakers, and quickly having “Warriors” on your resume is getting recognition like having “Spurs” on it around the NBA.

So good for Willie Green, the former NBA sharpshooter who will now be coaching a few other pretty good shooters in Golden State. Shams Charania of The Vertical on Yahoo Sports broke the story.

Green is a 12-year NBA veteran, who is getting his first NBA coaching job.

NBA veteran coach Mike Brown will be in the chair next to Steve Kerr next season in Golden State. Kerr keeps having to replenish his staff as they are getting better jobs elsewhere after having been around the Warriors’ organization.