Injury, risk reasons Nerlens Noel fell down draft board

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When Nerlens Noel first went down with an ACL injury, the reaction of most scouts and league executives was he wouldn’t fall or if he did he wouldn’t fall that far in the draft. He was still a top three pick.

But things started to feel different the last couple weeks. I can’t remember a year the presumptive top pick had more negative things said about him and his game in the run up to the draft.

Then come draft night he fell all the way No. 6, where he was taken by New Orleans and promptly traded to Philadelphia. Nobody seemed to want Noel.

What was going on? Turns out the knee injury and the risk that comes with it did cause him to fall.

When trying to do a good mock draft, you can’t just take into account the talent of the player and the needs of the team. The other key factors are the general manager’s/team president’s personality and his job security — is the decision maker in a position he feels comfortable taking a risk? Or does he need to go with a player he feels more comfortable with and can help sooner?

Noel, coming off an ACL repair that was red flagged by a couple teams, was certainly a risk.

Cavaliers’ owner Dan Gilbert said on the night of the lottery he was tired of being in the lottery and wanted to be in the playoffs next year, and you know GM Chris Grant has heard that more directly. So come draft night Grant didn’t feel comfortable taking Noel — a player with potentially more upside than Anthony Bennett but a also a player coming off an ACL surgery with more long-term risk and a player that was not going to help much in his rookie season at least.

Henry Abbott at TrueHoop explained the idea this way.

There are different ways players fail in the NBA. If he doesn’t work hard, it’s on him. If he doesn’t fit the system, it’s on the coach. None of that threatens highly paid and career-minded general managers — in both scenarios they can keep their jobs. (I’ve even heard it suggested that some general managers keep sub-par coaches around to have someone to blame should it all go awry.)

But things go down very differently if the team fails because it bet on a player known to have been injured, and injuries are his undoing. That tends to be seen as the front office’s fault. When the engines fail in that airplane, there never seem to be enough parachutes for the front office guys. That’s just how it goes

Kevin Pritchard was the NBA’s next great GM when he drafted Greg Oden — on track to be alone at the top of a big budget team’s hierarchy. Then Oden got hurt. Six years after making that pick, and after a spell of unemployment Pritchard is still keeping his head down, trying to restore his reputation in Indiana’s increasingly crowded front office.

Does it matter that 29 other GMs would have taken Oden over Kevin Durant? No. (And any GM that says otherwise is selling you revisionist history, at the time everyone had Oden on top of their boards.) Injuries to a top pick can kill a career.

In Philadelphia, new GM Sam Hinkie rolled the dice and I think had a great draft night. With Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Thaddeus Young and crew this was at best a .500 team looking at a bottom three seed in the East and getting suck in a rut in the middle of the conference. They went all in on Andrew Bynum and missed and now they were stuck. So Hinkie blew the whole thing up — he is getting bad to get better. The Sixers will lose a lot of games next season but be in position next draft to get one of the top players in the best draft in a decade.

And then, maybe Noel will be playing — he has the most potential in this draft, 7-foot guys who run the court like a guard, can block shots and be a defensive force don’t grow on trees. It’s a good risk for Hinkie.

Of course, it’s easy for me to say that — my job doesn’t depend on Noel coming around and being a productive player in a few years.

Report: Arron Afflalo signs one year deal with Orlando Magic

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Take one more NBA veteran off the free agent board.

According to report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, Arron Afflalo has signed a one-year deal with the Orlando Magic. Afflalo’s deal with the Magic is $2.1 million according to Wojnarowski, which is the veteran’s minimum for a player with his experience.

Afflalo, 31, previously played for the Magic from 2012 to 2014 before being traded to the Denver Nuggets.

Via Twitter:

Afflalo played for the Sacramento Kings last season averaging 8.4 points, 2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game.

Report: Suns’ Brandon Knight tears ACL in left knee, could miss season

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Phoenix Suns point guard Brandon Knight could be out for the 2017–18 NBA season with a torn ACL in his left knee.

That’s according to a report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowksi, who released the news on Tuesday afternoon.

Knight, 25, has roughly three years and $45 million left on the contract he signed in 2015.

Via Twitter:

Knight has been speculated as a potential trade chip for some time, but with him out it is unclear whether Phoenix will want to make a move with the players currently on their roster.

Knight averaged 11 points, 2.4 assists, and 2.2 rebounds per game for the Suns last season in 54 contests.

Adam Silver: ‘I feel bad for what’s-ever is going on in Cleveland’

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Kyrie Irving‘s trade request has injected excitement into an NBA offseason that was slipping into a slow period, give or take a Carmelo Anthony trade.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver on The Rich Eisen Show:

I love the interest. I’m not ecstatic about the drama.

I feel bad for what’s-ever is going on in Cleveland, and I have no first-hand information. But I assume where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Brian Windhorst has sort of been cataloguing LeBron’s career for a long time, and he usually has very accurate insights from that team.

It’s upsetting to hear that, when you see superstar players who have co-existed, who had so much success together – obviously three Finals in a row, one championship – to hear that, for whatever reason, there’s a sense that they can’t continue to co-exist. Yeah, that’s drama, but it’s not necessarily the kind of drama that the league wants.

Silver knows he probably can’t break up the Warriors, so he wanted teams to step up and compete with Golden State. The Cavaliers had been the league’s best hope the last few years, and LeBron James ensures they remain a title contender. But this disarray hurts their chances.

If you’re wearing a tin-foil hat, remember what happened last time Silver felt bad for Cleveland

Trail Blazers trade Allen Crabbe to Nets for Andrew Nicholson

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The Nets signed Allen Crabbe to a four-year offer sheet worth nearly $75 million last summer. The Trail Blazers matched, preventing Brooklyn from acquiring him for a year.

Now, a little more than a year later, the Nets are finally getting him.

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN:

Crabbe is still owed $56,332,500 – a sizable amount for a one-dimensional 3-point shooter. The Trail Blazers obviously regret matching his deal considering they’re already dumping him for another bad contract and didn’t win a single playoff game in the interim.

But Portland is undoing that mistake in a big way.

The Trail Blazers are in line to save $54,330,160 this season with this trade – $37,842,090 in luxury tax and $16,488,070 in player salary. They’ll still have to pay Andrew Nicholson $2,844,430 each of the next seven years – no small thing – but they’re at least reducing their burden for each of the next three years, when major luxury-tax issues still loom. They can deal with 2024 later.

Competing for the playoffs, Portland will miss Crabbe off the bench. But there are reasons he was expandable.

He doesn’t create enough offense for himself or others, and his defense is passable at best (and not versatile). Crabbe’s 3-point percentage (44%) is impressive, but it’s in part due to his high selectivity. He launches 3s at a middling rate for a guard, and 77% of his long-distance attempts were classified as open or wide open by NBA.com.

Simply, Crabbe must do more to get open and/or hoist more shots that reduce his efficiency but boost’s his team’s. He could also lock in a little more defensively.

Still, Crabbe is a helpful player already. He’s also just 25, so he can improve. The Nets obviously like him.

And he apparently likes Brooklyn, waiving his $5,674,875 trade bonus to facilitate a deal. As controversy swirls over Kyrie Irving requesting a trade from one of the NBA’s best teams, it’s interesting Crabbe would leave money on the table to go from a playoff team to a cellar-dweller. The Nets offer a bigger city, probably more playing time and definitely a front office that values him. So, it’s a reasonable choice, but also one that raises eyebrows.