Heat/Pacers Game 5 preview: Hibbert is Heat’s big problem

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Forty percent. That is the key number.

So far in the Eastern Conference Finals the Indiana Pacers have grabbed the offensive rebound on 39.9 percent of their missed shots — four out of 10 times they miss, they get a second chance. A fair amount of the time that is an easy tip-in or put-back for two.

Those easy extra points, combined with the Pacers ability to get the ball inside — and with that draw fouls and get to the free throw line 35 times a game (the average this series) — has Indiana scoring enough points to have the series tied 2-2 with the heavily favored Miami Heat.

Thursday night’s Game 5 is the obvious swing game and if the Heat a shot to repeat as champs the task before them is obvious but not simple — if they can’t keep the Pacers’ huge font line of Roy Hibbert and David West away from the offensive glass, keep them from owning the paint, the Heat will be facing elimination on Saturday night.

The rebounding woes for Miami are not all on Chris Bosh (who takes the brunt of blame) — Miami has been a team rebounding squad all year. Particularly on the offensive end, where Bosh is used to space the floor and is not in a position to grab a rebound. Everyone — Chris Andersen and the good rebounding wings of the Heat, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade — need to grab a lot of boards. And Bosh, too. The Heat have to put a body on Hibbert and West and take back the paint if they want to win. Miami needs to disrupt Hibbert’s offense, he shot 10-of-16 for 23 points in Game 4.

Miami also needs to get production points out of Wade, Bosh and the rest of the role players.

Indiana is a very good defensive team — they are going to make things difficult for LeBron James. Paul George is a good one-on-one defender, to start. In Game 4 he got help as the Pacers did a good job of throwing different looks at LeBron, including double teams when he dribbled a couple times in the post. That will return.

But when you focus on LeBron it has to open up lanes for Wade to drive, midrange jumpers for Bosh and threes for Ray Allen and Shane Battier. The issue for the Heat is haven’t made the Pacers pay outside of Game 3.

Indiana meanwhile has found what works and grown in that identity — they believe they hold the Heat in check and win. Indiana is relying heavily on its starting five, but that unit has been the best lineup in this series by far. The Heat have not had an answer.

The reason Miami is the favorite to win the NBA title is the belief they have another gear. When tested they can improve their level of play to one nobody else can match — they haven’t lost back-to-back games since mid-January. When they lost the first time in this series they came back with a dominant performance — when Udonis Haslem is hitting midrange jumpers there is nothing you can do to stop Miami. They could pull that off again.

If not, they will be playing for their season Saturday night, because you know Indiana isn’t backing down in Game 5.

Edmond Sumner declares for NBA draft despite torn ACL

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Edmond Sumner has grown about five inches since high school.

That has helped turn the 6-foot-5 Xavier point guard into an intriguing NBA prospect — but also seemingly contributed to physical complications. Sumner missed nearly all of his freshman year with knee tendinitis. Then, after a promising second season and start to his third, he tore his ACL in January.

Still, he’s entering the NBA draft.

Sumner:

Rick Broering of Musketeer Report:

Like with Duke’s Harry Giles, medical testing will be huge with Sumner. But at least Giles ended the season on the court. Sumner might not be healthy at all during the pre-draft process.

Sumner looked like a borderline first-round pick before the injury. This probably pushes him into the second round.

His long strides provide impressive speed and quickness, and he’s still shifty. Add quality court vision, and his ability to drive by defenders is even more valuable.

A 6-foot-8 wingspan and good lateral mobility also help make him a quality defender.

But it’s also concerning that so much of his positives could be undermined by his knee issues, especially considering his unreliable jumper. If Sumner can’t move like he did before getting hurt, I don’t see how he sticks in the NBA.

If Sumner’s knees check out, it’s worth rolling the dice on him and hoping his jumper develops. He might even be OK without shooting range, though that’d lower his ceiling considerably.

Again, though, the first thing is examining his knees.

PBT Extra: Can Boston hang on to the No. 1 seed in East?

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In an unexpected twist as the season winds down, the Cavaliers have stumbled — 8-11 since the All-Star break — while the Celtics have just kept on winning. Suddenly the Boston Celtics are on top of the East with the best record.

Can they stay on top through the rest of the season?

Does it matter to the Cavaliers?

I cover all this ground in the latest PBT Extra.

Draymond Green on Raiders move to Las Vegas: I won’t attend another game

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The Raiders are moving from Oakland to Las Vegas, and Draymond Green — whose Warriors also play in Oakland is not pleased.

Green, via Monte Poole of CSN Bay Area:

I wouldn’t attend a game. I won’t attend a game.

“And I’m not a diehard Raiders fan, but I support the city of Oakland. It ain’t for me and I feel like all fans should feel that way. You just don’t do that. Come on man, that’s ridiculous.”

“If I were the fans, I wouldn’t attend a game for the next two years. But that’s just me. That’s ridiculous. No way I’d pay my money to attend a game.”

 

Um, does Green realize the Warriors are also moving from Oakland (to a new arena in San Francisco)?

Green:

“It’s one thing if you’re moving them from Oakland to Fremont or something,” Green said of the Raiders. “To Las Vegas?

OK, that’s Fair. I am just being pedantic. I don’t actually see moving across the bay as similar to the Raiders moving hundreds of miles away.

Green:

“That’s like moving the Dallas Cowboys or moving the Packers,” he said. “Moving the Raiders? You can move a lot of teams. Ain’t many fan bases like the Raiders fan base. That’s like moving the Boston Celtics from Boston or the Lakers from LA.

“You just don’t move certain franchises with the fan base they have.”

But seriously this time: Someone tell Green that the Raiders have already moved from Oakland to Los Angeles and back to Oakland — hundreds of miles each way and a ridiculous drive in traffic.

I get that Green — who grew up in Detroit Lions territory, roots for the Pittsburgh Steelers and is pictured above in a San Francisco 49ers jersey — just wants to connect with Oakland fans, but this argument is just intellectually dishonest.

Lonzo Ball: I’m better than Markelle Fultz

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Who should go No. 1 in the 2017 NBA draft?

A pair of Pac-12 freshmen point guards, Washington’s Markelle Fultz and UCLA’s Lonzo Ball, lead the discussion.

Fultz looks like the leading contender, but Ball doesn’t buy into the conventional wisdom.

Ball, via ESPN:

“Markelle’s a great player, but I feel I’m better than him,” said Ball, who led the Bruins to a pair of blowout victories over Fultz’s Huskies this season.

“I think I can lead a team better than him,” Ball added. “Obviously he’s a great scorer — he’s a great player, so I’m not taking that away from him.”

This will get spun into a discussion of Lonzo’s father, LaVar Ball. But, without digging deeply, D'Angelo Russell, Shabazz Muhammad and Enes Kanter each claimed to be the best player in their respective drafts. Look further, and there are many more examples.

Reaching Lonzo Ball’s level usually comes with supreme confidence. This is normal — not a cause for concern about the influence of his boastful dad.

And for what’s it’s worth, I’d favor Ball over Fultz right now, though there’s still more information to gather in the draft process.