PBT Draft preview: Great news! The NBA is getting another Zeller brother!

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You hate to say a guy made a mistake going back to college for a year, but in Cody Zeller’s case….

The center out of Indiana was expected to come out as a top 10 pick last year and he chose to return to Indiana for a sophomore season. And he pretty much looked exactly like the guy from his freshman season — he’s good but there was not a lot of development. Remember, teams are drafting a player trying to project a player three years down the road and progress is a big part of that. Don’t show any and… it’s an issue. He has fallen down the draft boards, a Top 5 guy in this draft at the start of the season that is now late lottery.

That said, the fact he is a legit NBA center with some skills — plus an impressive vertical at the NBA Draft Combine — is going to have him getting picked late in the lottery (DraftExpress has him at No. 11, to the Sixers, where he would be sure to play better than that center they picked up last summer).

STRENGTHS

He’s a legitimate NBA center — 7’0” in shoes, standing reach of 8’10” and he weighs 230 pounds with a frame that can put on a few more (and he needs to). What really caught scouts’ eyes at the combine was a 33-inch standing vertical — the guy has legit hops and can get up around the basket.

While he has great size he’s a good athlete and very mobile for a big man. He is the kind of big man that on the right team can get a lot of points by simply outrunning his man down the floor and getting the ball in the paint before the defense can get set.

But he can score a lot of ways, he has a good all around offensive game. He can score with either hand around the rim, can face up and has a jumper teams think can be good (he didn’t need to use it much in college). Plus he has soft hands. You watch him play and you can picture him as a good pick-and-roll big with someone such as Jrue Holiday because he can roll, catch the ball and score inside or he can pop out and be a threat.

He’s also the kind of player coaches like on the roster — a high motor, hard working guy with good basketball instincts and IQ.

WEAKNESSES

At the college level as a sophomore, when he went against NBA-sized big men, he got pushed around physically. He has to get stronger and learn how to both defend on the block and hold his rebounding position. There are no more games against the boys, it’s the men now. He has to get strong enough to defend the Zach Randolphs, the Tiago Splitters, the kind of legitimate NBA bigs he will see now.

While he’s been a good college scorer with a nice offensive game, he’s going to have to adjust to doing it at the NBA level against longer, quicker, more athletic guys. He has the kind of basketball mind that should adjust, but it will take some work.

He also has the potential because of his mobility to be a good pick-and-roll defender, but he has a lot of work to do on that end of the floor.

WHAT DOES DAUSTER THINK?

We don’t get to watch as much of these guys as college writers do, so we turn to Rob Dauster of NBC’s CollegeBasketballTalk.com.

There were quite a few people that were left shaking their heads when Zeller made the decision to return to Indiana after a freshman campaign that could have gotten him picked in the top ten of last year’s draft. Those concerns came to fruition during the 2012-2013 season, as Zeller managed to put together a disappointing all-american season, if that’s possible.

Zeller was a known quantity entering the year, and he didn’t do anything during the season that set himself apart from where he was last season. He didn’t add any new wrinkles to his game. He didn’t become a powerful low post scorer. He didn’t add much weight to his frame and doesn’t show off the kind of length or lower-body strength that would allow him to be an elite rebounder or a defender in the NBA. The images of him struggling with the length of Syracuse in the NCAA tournament certainly resonate.

Some of the critiques of Zeller are unfair, as he had absurdly high expectations entering the year. What he is is a skilled, versatile offensive weapon that has a back-to-the-basket game, runs the floor as well as any center in the NBA, and sports a better perimeter jumper than he gets credit for. He’s limited in some areas, but he plays hard, he plays smart and he’s a winner. He may not be the second coming of Bill Walton, but in a draft with a lot of question marks and risk, Zeller seems like a safe bet to be a starter in the NBA for a number of years.

WHERE DOES HE GET DRAFTED?

Late lottery, between 9 and 14. Dauster hits the nail on the head at the end of his section — Zeller is not going to be an NBA star for you, but he can be a guy who in a couple years you can count on for 20 solid minutes a night in the paint. That has value, it can lead to a long NBA career.

As expected, Blake Griffin reportedly opted out of contract with Clippers

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Doc Rivers says he wants Blake Griffin back with the Clippers next season.

The bigger question: Does Blake Griffin want to be back with the Clippers next season?

The decision is in Griffin’s hands as he has done what was expected, opting out of his contract for the coming season, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical at Yahoo Sports.

A number of teams — Boston, Miami, and others — are expected to take a run at Griffin. (In Boston’s case, he’s a backup plan to Gordon Hayward, but there will be conversations.)

What Chris Paul — also expected to opt out and become a free agent this summer — and Griffin choose to do will help set the market. They are two of the biggest free agent names out there where they could switch teams (Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are staying put). If they take their time making a decision, it leaves the Clippers in a bind — they have to wait to hear from these two before starting replacing or rebuilding, but by the time they know other players may have decided — and could bottleneck the free agent process.

The Clippers are going to be one interesting team to watch this summer.

Pistons’ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope suspended two games for DUI

AP Photo
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This is the standard penalty for coaches and players hit with a DUI. I don’t think the penalty is stiff enough in general for a serious issue, but this is the precedent that has been set.

Detroit Pistons’ guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been suspended two games by the NBA for “pleading guilty to operating a motor vehicle while intoxicated, in violation of the law of the State of Michigan,” the NBA announced. He will miss the first two games of next season.

This will not stop Caldwell-Pope from getting PAID this summer.

A quality wing defender who hit 35 percent from three last season, he plays a position of need for a lot of teams and he is a restricted free agent. Other teams with cap space — Brooklyn and Sacramento come to mind — could step in and give him a max or near max offer. Then Stan Van Gundy needs to decide if he is going to match. He may not have much of a choice, if he wants to keep Andre Drummond and build an inside-out team around him, he needs Caldwell-Pope, and the Pistons don’t have the cap space to replace him.

One way or another, Caldwell-Pope is in line for a massive pay raise. This suspension will not slow teams, it just takes a little money out of his pocket.

 

Lonzo Ball tops Rookie of the Year early betting odds

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If you are betting right now on next year’s NBA Rookie of the Year award, you are a die-hard fan of your team and their new addition. Or, you have a problem and need to seek help. Maybe both.

Either way, the people at the gambling site Bovada have posted the early betting odds for the ROY award for next season.

Lonzo Ball (Lakers) 5/2
Ben Simmons (76ers) 3/1
Markelle Fultz (76ers) 5/1
De”Aaron Fox (Kings) 7/1
Josh Jackson (Suns) 9/1
Jayson Tatum (Celtics) 9/1
Jonathan Isaac (Magic) 16/1
Malik Monk (Hornets) 16/1
Dennis Smith (Mavericks) 16/1
John Collins (Hawks) 20/1
Justin Jackson (Trail Blazers) 22/1
Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) 22/1

Yes, Ben Simmons is in the mix.

The two bets I like here, if I were a gambling man, are Jackson in Phoenix and Dennis Smith in Dallas. I doubt Smith wins it, but Mavs coach Rick Carlisle said after the draft Smith will start for them next year, which means he gets opportunities and can rack up assists feeding Dirk Nowitzki at the elbow for a year.

Jackson is going to be unleashed in an up-tempo Suns offense where he will be the defender they need on the wing, play with high energy, and get buckets in transition. Winning ROY is as much about fit and opportunity as talent, and Jackson has landed in a good spot.

Paul George-Gordon Hayward-Celtics rumor doesn’t add up

AP Photo/George Frey
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Paul George reportedly wants to play with Gordon Hayward. George is also reportedly willing to join his desired team (universally accepted to be the Lakers) by means that don’t guarantee the highest salary.

Could the Celtics – who are pursuing Hayward in free agency – leverage those conditions into getting George?

Adam Kauffman of 98.5 The Sports Hub:

I don’t what George would do, but it’d be a MAJOR financial disadvantage to go this route.

There a couple ways it could happen – George getting extended-and-trade or George getting traded then signing an extension six months later. The latter would allow George to earn more than the former, but even if he pledged to sign an extension, would the Celtics trade for him knowing he’d have six months to change his mind if he doesn’t like Boston as much as anticipated?

There’s a bigger issue, anyway. Both extension routes would leave George earning far less than simply letting his contract expire then signing a new deal, either with his incumbent team or a new one.

Here’s a representation of how much George could earn by:

  • Letting his contract expire and re-signing (green)
  • Letting his contract expire and signing elsewhere (purple)
  • Getting traded and signing an extension six months later (gray)
  • Signing an extend-and-trade (yellow)

image

Expire & re-sign Expire & leave Trade, extend later Extend-and-trade
2018-19 $30.6 million $30.6 million $23,410,750 $23,410,750
2019-20 $33.0 million $32.1 million $25,283,610 $24,581,287
2020-21 $35.5 million $33.7 million $27,156,470 $25,751,825
2021-22 $37.9 million $35.2 million $29,029,330
2022-23 $40.4 million
Total $177.5 million $131.6 million $104,880,158 $73,743,861

Firm numbers are used when it’s just a calculation based on George’s current contract. When necessary to project the 2018-19 salary cap, I rounded.

The Celtics could theoretically renegotiate-and-extend, but that would require cap room that almost certainly wouldn’t exist after signing Hayward.

Simply, it’s next to impossible to see this happening. It’d be too costly to George.