Odds for the NBA Draft Lottery (that teams don’t care if they win)

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The NBA lottery is totally fixed, but in the interest of appeasing the NBA, we’re going to share the odds the league says each team has of receiving each pick.

We will add that it’s been a long time since there was this little buzz around the NBA about the lottery — because nobody really cares if they get the top pick. A couple teams have already hinted that if they win it, they are going to shop it around for a trade. Why? There are some nice players in this draft (Nerlens Noel, Trey Burke) but no real franchise changers. Future starters, some good rotation players, but whoever gets drafted at the top of this class will have expectations on him he almost certainly will not meet.

The lottery determines only the top three picks, so not each team can receive each pick. For example, the eighth-seeded Wizards are eligible to land only picks 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10 or 11.

Here are the full odds for each team:

Magic

  • One: 25 percent
  • Two: 21.507 percent
  • Three: 17.76753 percent
  • Four: 35.72541 percent

Bobcats

  • One: 19.9 percent
  • Two: 18.80896 percent
  • Three: 17.11759 percent
  • Four: 31.85529 percent
  • Five: 12.31814 percent
  • Thirteen: 0.00065 percent (from Trail Blazers)

Cavaliers

  • One: 15.6 percent
  • Two: 15.73695 percent
  • Three: 15.58053 percent
  • Four: 22.56471 percent
  • Five: 26.48206 percent
  • Six: 4.03576 percent

Suns

  • One: 11.9 percent
  • Two: 12.59662 percent
  • Three: 13.29535 percent
  • Four: 9.85451 percent
  • Five: 35.05137 percent
  • Six: 16.04898 percent
  • Seven: 1.25314 percent

Pelicans

  • One: 8.8 percent
  • Two: 9.65468 percent
  • Three: 10.6772 percent
  • Five: 26.14841 percent
  • Six: 35.96765 percent
  • Seven: 8.38169 percent
  • Eight: 0.37034 percent

Kings

  • One: 6.3 percent
  • Two: 7.09618 percent
  • Three: 8.11381 percent
  • Six: 43.94758 percent
  • Seven: 30.43731 percent
  • Eight: 4.00008 percent
  • Nine: 0.10503 percent

Pistons

  • One: 3.6 percent
  • Two: 4.16257 percent
  • Three: 4.91491 percent
  • Seven: 59.92783 percent
  • Eight: 25.30111 percent
  • Nine: 2.05964 percent
  • Ten: 0.03393 percent

Wizards

  • One: 3.5 percent
  • Two: 4.0507 percent
  • Three: 4.78819 percent
  • Eight: 70.32848 percent
  • Nine: 16.52498 percent
  • Ten: 0.79965 percent
  • Eleven: 0.00801 percent

Timberwolves

  • One: 1.7 percent
  • Two: 1.99974 percent
  • Three: 2.40995 percent
  • Nine: 81.31034 percent
  • Ten: 12.19939 percent
  • Eleven: 0.37823 percent
  • Twelve: 0.00235 percent

Trail Blazers

  • One: 1.1 percent
  • Two: 1.30074 percent
  • Three: 1.57717 percent
  • Ten: 86.96703 percent
  • Eleven: 8.87541 percent
  • Twelve: 0.179 percent

76ers

  • One: 0.8 percent
  • Two: 0.94844 percent
  • Three: 1.15345 percent
  • Eleven: 90.73834 percent
  • Twelve: 6.28269 percent
  • Thirteen: 0.07694 percent
  • Fourteen: 0.00013 percent

Raptors

  • One: 0.7 percent
  • Two: 0.83059 percent
  • Three: 1.01114 percent

Mavericks

  • One: 0.6 percent
  • Two: 0.71255 percent
  • Three: 0.86829 percent
  • Thirteen: 96.02189 percent
  • Fourteen: 1.79737 percent

Jazz

  • One: 0.5 percent
  • Two: 0.59429 percent
  • Three: 0.7249 percent
  • Fourteen: 98.1809 percent

Thunder

  • Twelve: 93.53599 percent (from Raptors via Rockets)
  • Thirteen: 3.90061 percent (from Raptors via Rockets)
  • Fourteen: 0.02169 percent (from Raptors via Rockets)

LaVar Ball on Luke Walton: “They’re soft. They don’t know how to coach my son.”

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Luke Walton is trying to create a professional environment around his young Lakers’ core. One where they expect the players to put in extra work without being told they have to, one where the coaches guide the development, but it’s ultimately the player in charge of his own course. Basically, Walton is treating his young players like adults and is asking them to respond to it like professional adults. It’s what he’s seen Steve Kerr do in Golden State and it works. It’s how Gregg Popovich has created a dynasty in San Antonio.

LaVar Ball sees the world very differently. He’s old school, from the “do as I say” mold.

So it shouldn’t be a shock that after the Lakers’ ugly loss last Friday to the Suns, the Lakers media spoke to LaVar Ball about his son’s play and Ball took a shot at the Lakers’ coach. Here are the quotes, via Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report.

“They’re soft. They don’t know how to coach my son. I know how to coach him,” LaVar Ball said. “I tell him to go get the victory. Stop messing around.”

Does he have a problem with coach Luke Walton?

“No, I have a problem with losing,” Ball responded.

I have multiple thoughts here, which means bullet points.

• I am breaking my own rule with this post, which is “don’t cover LaVar Ball, he’s just meaningless click bait.” I debated the point, but I think there is a legitimate basketball reason to cover this post (keep reading).

• Things Luke Walton cares more about than what LaVar Ball thinks of his coaching style: How much extra guacamole costs at Chipotle; if Netflix has “Golden Girls” to stream; what shoes Lakers’ sideline reporter Mike Trudell is wearing during postgame interviews; which Van Halen album “Dance the Night Away” is on; which show won the 1974 Tony for Best Musical.

Lonzo Ball‘s struggles with his shot this season — 31.3 percent overall, and he is struggling from three and around the rim — are well documented. It’s clear he is in his own head about it at this point. What can keep him there longer is conflicting advice from his father and his coach. So far, Lonzo seems to be siding with the coaching staff, for example, he credited assistant coach Brian Shaw for telling him to rebound more aggressively, then push the ball himself. LaVar will want to take credit for that, too. Lonzo needs to listen to his coaches, take his father’s advice for what it’s worth, and find his path.

• LaVar is lucky that the level-headed, mature-for-his-age, hard-working Lonzo was his oldest son. Just from what I see on the outside, not sure either of the other two Ball children could have handled this scrutiny nearly as well.

• Luke Walton is working to create something sustainable with the Lakers, they are not going to let anything (or anyone) bump them off that path.

PBT Podcast: Breaking down rookie class’s start to NBA season

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Markelle Fultz has barely seen the court. Lonzo Ball has had a couple of triple-doubles but his shot is way off, and he’s drawing extra scrutiny thanks to his father. Right now, Danny Ainge looks like the smartest guy in the room trading down and walking away with Jayson Tatum. Some of the best players out of this draft early — Kyle Kuzma, Donovan Mitchell — were drafted well down the board.

It’s been a draft class with real highs, some ugly lows, some polarizing figures — and Kurt Helin and Dan Feldman of NBC Sports break it down.

They go through all the guys taken in the lottery and discuss what they have seen, then talk about some of the guys outside the draft who have had strong seasons so far.

As always, you can check out the podcast below, listen and subscribe via iTunes at ApplePodcasts.com/PBTonNBC, subscribe via the fantastic Stitcher app, check us out on Google play, or check out the NBC Sports Podcast homepage and archive at Art19.

Interviewer: LeBron James wasn’t dissing Kyrie Irving

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LeBron James on Isaiah Thomas, via Howard Beck of Bleacher Report:

“It’s been a while since I’ve had that clear-cut guy who can get guys involved but also score at the same time,” James told B/R Mag.

That looked like a shot at Kyrie Irving. But with more context, it clearly wasn’t.

Beck:

It seems LeBron was saying it’s been a while that he’s had “that clear-cut guy who can get guys involved but also score at the same time.” If he was slighting Kyrie Irving, LeBron was also slighting Dwyane Wade – and I doubt LeBron would do that.

LeBron and Kyrie probably aren’t above taking subtle shots at each other. But this seems like a case of Beck, after hearing LeBron’s words aloud and in context, not realizing how a trimmed version would read as text. It’s unfortunate that people initially got the wrong impression, but good on Beck for clearing it up.

Missouri: Potential No. 1 pick Michael Porter Jr. likely out for rest of season

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Missouri’s Michael Porter Jr. – maybe the top contender to supplant European guard Luka Doncic as the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NBA draft – had his campaign undercut after it barely began.

Missouri Basketball:

Michael Porter, Jr. will undergo surgery on Tuesday, Nov. 21, in Dallas, Texas. The procedure, a microdiscectomy of the L3 and L4 spinal discs, has a projected recovery time of three-four months and will likely cause him to miss the remainder of the season. Michael is expected to make a complete recovery

With that timeline, it’s possible Porter returns late in Missouri’s NBA season. But as an elite draft prospect stuck in a cartel system that caps his compensation well below market value, he should probably be cautious.

Porter will likely still go high in the draft – if his medicals check out. This is is a serious injury, and teams will be wary off long-term effects.

But he’s a top talent, and the forward shouldn’t slip far. In fact, in a strange way, this injury could even help him. There were questions about Porter’s ability to handle physicality and tight spaces when the game slows down, challenges he would have met frequently in college basketball. Now, scouts can’t pick apart those aspects of his game. Logically or not, NBA teams tend to favor the unknown in the draft, and Porter is on his way to being one of the biggest mysteries near the top of the 2018 draft.