Grant Gilbert

Odds for the NBA Draft Lottery (that teams don’t care if they win)

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The NBA lottery is totally fixed, but in the interest of appeasing the NBA, we’re going to share the odds the league says each team has of receiving each pick.

We will add that it’s been a long time since there was this little buzz around the NBA about the lottery — because nobody really cares if they get the top pick. A couple teams have already hinted that if they win it, they are going to shop it around for a trade. Why? There are some nice players in this draft (Nerlens Noel, Trey Burke) but no real franchise changers. Future starters, some good rotation players, but whoever gets drafted at the top of this class will have expectations on him he almost certainly will not meet.

The lottery determines only the top three picks, so not each team can receive each pick. For example, the eighth-seeded Wizards are eligible to land only picks 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10 or 11.

Here are the full odds for each team:

Magic

  • One: 25 percent
  • Two: 21.507 percent
  • Three: 17.76753 percent
  • Four: 35.72541 percent

Bobcats

  • One: 19.9 percent
  • Two: 18.80896 percent
  • Three: 17.11759 percent
  • Four: 31.85529 percent
  • Five: 12.31814 percent
  • Thirteen: 0.00065 percent (from Trail Blazers)

Cavaliers

  • One: 15.6 percent
  • Two: 15.73695 percent
  • Three: 15.58053 percent
  • Four: 22.56471 percent
  • Five: 26.48206 percent
  • Six: 4.03576 percent

Suns

  • One: 11.9 percent
  • Two: 12.59662 percent
  • Three: 13.29535 percent
  • Four: 9.85451 percent
  • Five: 35.05137 percent
  • Six: 16.04898 percent
  • Seven: 1.25314 percent

Pelicans

  • One: 8.8 percent
  • Two: 9.65468 percent
  • Three: 10.6772 percent
  • Five: 26.14841 percent
  • Six: 35.96765 percent
  • Seven: 8.38169 percent
  • Eight: 0.37034 percent

Kings

  • One: 6.3 percent
  • Two: 7.09618 percent
  • Three: 8.11381 percent
  • Six: 43.94758 percent
  • Seven: 30.43731 percent
  • Eight: 4.00008 percent
  • Nine: 0.10503 percent

Pistons

  • One: 3.6 percent
  • Two: 4.16257 percent
  • Three: 4.91491 percent
  • Seven: 59.92783 percent
  • Eight: 25.30111 percent
  • Nine: 2.05964 percent
  • Ten: 0.03393 percent

Wizards

  • One: 3.5 percent
  • Two: 4.0507 percent
  • Three: 4.78819 percent
  • Eight: 70.32848 percent
  • Nine: 16.52498 percent
  • Ten: 0.79965 percent
  • Eleven: 0.00801 percent

Timberwolves

  • One: 1.7 percent
  • Two: 1.99974 percent
  • Three: 2.40995 percent
  • Nine: 81.31034 percent
  • Ten: 12.19939 percent
  • Eleven: 0.37823 percent
  • Twelve: 0.00235 percent

Trail Blazers

  • One: 1.1 percent
  • Two: 1.30074 percent
  • Three: 1.57717 percent
  • Ten: 86.96703 percent
  • Eleven: 8.87541 percent
  • Twelve: 0.179 percent

76ers

  • One: 0.8 percent
  • Two: 0.94844 percent
  • Three: 1.15345 percent
  • Eleven: 90.73834 percent
  • Twelve: 6.28269 percent
  • Thirteen: 0.07694 percent
  • Fourteen: 0.00013 percent

Raptors

  • One: 0.7 percent
  • Two: 0.83059 percent
  • Three: 1.01114 percent

Mavericks

  • One: 0.6 percent
  • Two: 0.71255 percent
  • Three: 0.86829 percent
  • Thirteen: 96.02189 percent
  • Fourteen: 1.79737 percent

Jazz

  • One: 0.5 percent
  • Two: 0.59429 percent
  • Three: 0.7249 percent
  • Fourteen: 98.1809 percent

Thunder

  • Twelve: 93.53599 percent (from Raptors via Rockets)
  • Thirteen: 3.90061 percent (from Raptors via Rockets)
  • Fourteen: 0.02169 percent (from Raptors via Rockets)

Front desk at new Sixers practice facility made out of court from Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point game

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 23:  Ben Simmons walks on stage after being drafted first overall by the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the 2016 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center on June 23, 2016 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
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The Philadelphia 76ers have just opened a new, state-of-the-art practice facility, and maybe the coolest part is a unique touch that nods to one of the iconic moments in the history of Philadelphia basketball. The reception desk in the lobby of the building is made out of hardwood, but not just any hardwood — it’s a part of the court from Wilt Chamberlain’s 100-point game on March 2, 1962. Here’s a photo, via CSN Philly’s Jessica Camerato:

When Chamberlain scored 100 points, it was for the Philadelphia Warriors, not the 76ers, but it’s still a piece of the city’s sports history, and this is a cool, unique way to honor it.

51 Q: Will Tom Thibodeau fast-track the Timberwolves’ ascension?

OAKLAND, CA - APRIL 05:  Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves is congratulated by Ricky Rubio #9 after he made a basket against the Golden State Warriors at ORACLE Arena on April 5, 2016 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
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The Minnesota Timberwolves won just 29 games last season, but few teams have more crowded bandwagons right now, or brighter futures. In many ways, their position isn’t too dissimilar to the Oklahoma City Thunder circa 2009 — still a lottery team, but the talent of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook was obvious. The Wolves have a similarly promising young core with the last two Rookie of the Year winners, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, the latter of whom has all the makings of a once-in-a-generation, MVP-caliber big man and an unbelievable amount of poise and polish for his age.

Young teams take time to come together, but the Timberwolves set themselves up to make a leap with their biggest offseason move, parting ways with interim head coach Sam Mitchell (who filled in admirably following the passing of Flip Saunders before last season) and hiring Tom Thibodeau. Because of this alone, the Timberwolves will win more games than they did last year. That’s what Thibodeau does — he wins games, no matter what his roster looks like. He does this by treating every game like it’s Game 7 of the Finals, and unlike the injury-riddled Bulls teams he got to overachieve, this Wolves group is young, healthy and unproven.

But even though any group with Wiggins, Towns and Thibodeau projects long-term to be in the title race, it would be unfair and unreasonable to expect contention overnight. Even Thibodeau, who expects the absolute most out of any group he coaches, is fully aware of that. Here’s what he told the St. Paul Pioneer Press in July:

“We like our young core a lot,” Thibodeau said, “and I would say this: We’re also not fooling ourselves. We know we’re in a very competitive conference. We won 29 games last year.”

Short of the kind of offseason haul of superstars that transforms a roster (think the Celtics getting Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in 2007, or the Cavaliers getting LeBron James and Kevin Love in 2014), going from a bottom-tier lottery team to a contender overnight just doesn’t happen. A more realistic expectation of a best-case scenario for the Timberwolves under the first year of Thibodeau would be the 2009-10 Thunder. After winning just 23 games in 2009, Oklahoma City went 50-32 in 2009-10, grabbed the eighth seed in the Western Conference and lost to the eventual champion Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. A playoff berth and a competitive first-round loss to the Warriors or Spurs is only incremental progress, but considering what the starting point is, and the fact that the Timberwolves haven’t made the playoffs since 2004, a similar season would be a resounding success for the first year under Thibodeau.

The bottom of the Western Conference playoff race is going to be an uphill battle for the Wolves to break into. Beyond the top tier (Golden State, San Antonio and the Clippers), it seems to be a safe bet that the Jazz, Blazers, Thunder and Grizzlies will be in the playoffs. The Timberwolves will be one of the teams fighting for the final spot, but they’ll have stiff competition with the Rockets, Pelicans and Mavericks in the hunt. It’s not hard to picture the Wolves edging those teams out, but it’s far from a sure thing.

Long-term, it’s hard to think of a team with a higher ceiling than this Timberwolves group. In the here and now, though, it’s best to keep expectations in check.

Anthony Davis on New Orleans: “I never plan on leaving here”

NEW ORLEANS, LA - FEBRUARY 04:  Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans takes a shot during the first half of a game against the Los Angeles Lakers at the Smoothie King Center on February 4, 2016 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. On media day, Anthony Davis — who signed a five-year max extension with the Pelicans last summer and cannot hit the open market until 2020 at the earliest — told reporters that he wants to play in New Orleans his entire career.

Right now, I have no doubt that Davis means what he said and wants to stay in New Orleans forever. But it’s worth keeping in mind that virtually every superstar who signed a long-term extension with the team that drafted them said something similar. Matt Moore of CBSSports.com has a few examples from Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony, all of whom eventually left their teams.

For the Pelicans, it will depend on how the next four seasons go. If they can put a title contender around Davis and not waste the bulk of his prime (a la Kevin Garnett‘s first stint in Minnesota), they have a chance to convince him to stay. But it would be unwise to hold him at his word right now in four years, especially if the next several seasons don’t go the way they want.

Enes Kanter roasts Kevin Garnett following retirement announcement

PHOENIX, AZ - FEBRUARY 08:  Enes Kanter #11 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on February 8, 2016 in Phoenix, Arizona.  The Thunder defeated the Suns 122-106.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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Enes Kanter has emerged in recent months as one of the most entertaining NBA players to follow on Twitter, with a knack for self-deprecation as well as poking fun at other players. His response to Kevin Garnett‘s Friday retirement announcement did not disappoint: a shot at Garnett’s aging knees and a picture of himself dunking on KG.

You would have to hope that Garnett, one of the NBA’s all-time