When the Spurs and Warriors face off today, they’ll do so with both their floor generals not 100% physically. And while Parker is sure he’ll play with his bruised calf, Curry is only “optimistic” he’ll be able to see the floor and sounds far from certain he’ll be near his best if he does play.
For the Warriors that’s not the best of news, obviously. Curry has been spectacular these playoffs and the focal point of his team’s high powered attack. These playoffs, when Curry is on the floor the Warriors boast an offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) of 110.8, but that number dips to an astonishingly low 83.0 when he goes to the bench, per NBA.com. If Curry isn’t able to approach his normal standards, the question then becomes if they can get enough production from the rest of their backcourt players to match a potent Spurs’ offense.
Jarrett Jack and Klay Thompson will need to raise their respective games, especially relative to what they were able to provide in game 3. Today, Jack can’t be the turnover machine he was and will need to avoid playing with the tunnel vision that freezes out his teammates way too often. Thompson, meanwhile, must get into the flow of the game early and often, looking for his shot off pin downs and in transition to help boost the offense.
Beyond the guards, the Warriors will also need for Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green to be assertive when they have match up advantages. Both have the ability to create offense for themselves and for others and if Curry is hampered, they’ll need to provide that extra playmaking to help supplement what Curry can’t provide. If both can not only get some key basket for themselves but create a few easy ones for the Warriors’ big men when the Spurs help, it would go a long way towards a successful day on that end.
Where the Warriors really need to figure things out is defensively. The Spurs, like they did in the Lakers’ series, seem to be rounding into form after getting a good sense of what their opponent likes to do defensively.
Tony Parker seems to be sorting out where the gaps in the defense are and is attacking when given space while hitting his jumper when his man tries to deny those driving lanes. That said, if his bum calf hampers his ability to create off the dribble, other Spurs ball handlers will need to step in and provide those skills. In game 1, Manu Ginobili was able to provide playmaking, but his scoring has suffered in this series. If he can break out today, it would be a huge boost to San Antonio.
In his own way, Tim Duncan may also have fill some of the playmaking void should Parker not be up to his normal standards. Operating from the elbow and the low post, Duncan can not only score but can be a facilitator for teammates when his team goes into their motion heavy sets. If Duncan shots start to fall, it will only open up his passing angles further and that will spell trouble for a Golden State defense that didn’t bring their top effort in game 3.
But, ultimately, this game will come down which team can get more from their banged up guards. Because while others will need to chip in, both Curry and Parker are too important to what their teams want to do offensively. And if either is substantially hampered in this game, their team will struggle to make up the difference in production as the defense tightens up against everyone else.