Looking at why the Grizzlies offense is better without Gay

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After a lot of television talking heads though the Grizzlies ended their title chances by trading away Rudy Gay, they have simply been a better team. Memphis has gone 16-6 since the deal, and while some of that is they hit a soft patch in the schedule, a lot of it is they are playing better.

Especially on offense. Since the trade the Grizzlies weak offense has stepped up and averaged 104.1 points per 100 possessions, which would have them on the edge of the NBA’s top 10 for the entire season. Combine that with a very good defense and they become a dangerous team to meet in the playoffs.

Why is the offense better? Marc Gasol and his versatility from the elbow is a lot of it, something Zach Lowe talked about at Grantland and was added to by Dan Devine at Yahoo’s Ball Don’t Lie. Gasol can shoot from the elbow, pass to cutters or Zach Randolph down low, the Grizzlies run a sweet handoff play to their guards, or he can just take a few steps out and set a big screen for the pick-and-roll with Mike Conley.

What has really happened in Memphis is that Gay is not there soaking up shots in his inefficient, 40 percent shooting style, Devine says.

Gay’s absence has meant a greater distribution of touches, opportunities and responsibility for other Grizzlies, too. While Gasol’s “usage rate” — the share of Memphis possessions that end with him attempting a field goal, getting free throws or turning the ball over — is up (as is his field-goal percentage and as are his per-game scoring, rebounding and assist numbers; he’s averaging just under five dimes a game after the trade, which is nuts for a center), the same is true for Conley, who is also “using” more Grizzlies trips, assisting on teammates’ buckets more often, turning it over less frequently, and shooting a higher percentage from the floor and the foul line…..

All of these ploys — Gasol at the elbow, Conley in the high screen-and-roll or on off-ball cuts, even a slightly-less-potent-than-before Z-Bo on the block — are far more effective offensive options than Gay’s volume-shooting, not-especially-accurate brand of inefficiency. Plus, it’s not like the Grizz have been missing Gay defensively — they were tied with the Chicago Bulls for second in the league in defensive efficiency (how many points your defense gives up per 100 possessions) before the deal, allowing 97.5 points-per-100, and they’ve been second (and actually a tick better) since the deal, too, holding opponents to 97-per-100. (Gasol’s a pretty big reason for that, too, literally and figuratively.)

For all the hyperbole around advanced stats in the NBA, what you see in Memphis is the goal. Be smart by finding efficent players then putting said players in possitions to succeed. It’s not to be dazzled by the raw numbers (he scored 40 points) and look at how it happened (he took 45 shots).

The rise in the NBA’s “advanced” efficiency stats is trouble for volume shooters — teams are less interested in guys like Gay who need a lot of shots to score, they want guys who take fewer shots but make them from their spots on the floor. Teams like the Grizzlies will give up the old-school scorer like Gay to get the ball to guys who make a higher percentage of their shots. Then they run the plays that get those players the ball where they are effective. The hope with the new SpurtsVU cameras in arenas is for teams to gather data that can take all of that to the next level.

It’s not an accident Memphis is better now after the trade. It’s about being smart, Memphis’ front office was that and saved money in the process. It’s a model a lot of smaller market teams will gravitate toward.

Sixers upgraded to “probable,” will decide after warm ups

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Everything you saw in the first two games of this Miami/Philadelphia playoff series you can throw out in the trash.

Joel Embiid is back and is now “probable” for Game 3, the Sixers announced, upgrading his status from “doubtful” earlier in the day. Embiid had been out with a concussion and orbital bone fracture.

Embiid will go through warmups — trying out both a mask and goggles — then will make a formal decision. However, he is expected to go. He certainly wants to play.

This changes the Sixers and the series. Yes, Philly has likely Rookie of the Year Ben Simmons and high quality role players such as J.J. Redick and Robert Covington, however, is Embiid that makes it all work. Put simply, when Embiid is on the court the Sixers are 15.2 points per 100 possessions better — their defense is elite and their offense is outstanding.

The Sixers will be better with their best player back in the fold, but don’t think this makes the series a cakewalk for Philly. It changes everything about matchups, but things are not all positives. When Embiid is on the court, the up-tempo, ball-movement style that the Sixers built around Simmons slows down and stops at points. The Sixers have played Hassan Whiteside and his rim protection off the court with floor spacing shooting bigs, now he has a place to be in the matchups. There are things the Heat can do now that may work for them.

It just may not matter — Philadelphia just got a lot better.

PBT Podcast: NBA first round playoff series breakdowns

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LeBron James‘ Cavaliers looks to be in a battle royal in the first round — and they could lose to Victor Oladipo‘s Pacers.

Miami’s defense and versatility is challenging the Sixers and shaking the faith of all those that just jumped on the bandwagon.

Utah stole a game in Oklahoma City showing great grit and resolve, not to mention a lot of Donovan Mitchell.

Anthony Davis has done everything but walk on water for the Pelicans.

The first round of the NBA playoffs has been filled with fascinating storylines — and we are just two games into each series. Kurt Helin and Dan Feldman of NBC Sports break down all eight first-round series in this podcast, starting in the East and the tight races there, then move into the West. There’s even some “who wants to pay Jabari Parker this summer?” talk thrown in.

As always, you can check out the podcast below, listen and subscribe via iTunes at ApplePodcasts.com/PBTonNBC, subscribe via the fantastic Stitcher app, check us out on Google play, or check out the NBC Sports Podcast homepage and archive at Art19.

James Dolan says Knicks must build around ‘great’ Kristaps Porzingis, offers fair rebuke of meddling charges

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Phil Jackson received a standing ovation in his first game at Madison Square Garden as Knicks president. Don’t forget how excited New York was for Jackson, who coached the Bulls and Lakers to 11 championships and played for the Knicks’ last title team. He was welcomed as a potential savior.

The common refrain: Jackson would have a chance to succeed if Knicks owner James Dolan didn’t meddle.

Immediately, Dolan said he would cede control to Jackson “willingly and gratefully.” Dolan later pledged to honor Jackson’s full five-year contract.

But fans turned on Jackson as he did an awful job and the Knicks struggled. Dolan opted into the final two years of Jackson’s contract, anyway, as he said he would all along. Fans got angrier. When Jackson publicly flaunted Kristaps Porzingis trade talks, outrage reached a fever pitch. Finally, Dolan stepped in to fire Jackson.

Dolan, via Larry Brooks of the New York Post:

“A great player in hockey is the difference, but a great player in basketball is the team.

“And I think we have a great player in Porzingis. We just have to build around him.”

“Everybody who wants to talk about the Knicks wants to ask me about Phil Jackson,” Dolan said, smiling and shaking his head. “The entire market wanted to me to hire him and when I did, the entire market said it was a great move. The only thing was, everyone said that I shouldn’t interfere with him.

“Three years later, everyone wanted to know when I was going to do something about Phil. The same people who told me not to interfere wanted me to interfere. But that’s OK. I just think that Phil underestimated the job.”

Dolan makes a salient point about how people perceive his involvement. The problem isn’t that Dolan meddles. It’s that he makes poor decisions.

Hiring Jackson – an out-of-touch former coach with no front-office experience – was a poor decision. I’m not enthused about Steve Mills as Jackson’s replacement, either, though we’ll see how that plays out.

Building around Porzingis is a better decision. He’s an extremely talented 22-year-old.

But it’s hardly a foolproof plan. Porzingis is recovering from a torn ACL. Dolan said Porzingis could return in December – or miss next season entirely.

Either way, the Knicks must surround Porzingis with better teammates. Dolan will and should be a part of that process. Whether he’ll positively affect it is another matter.

76ers: Joel Embiid doubtful for Game 3 against Heat

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MIAMI (AP) — Joel Embiid remains listed as doubtful by Philadelphia for Game 3 of the 76ers’ Eastern Conference playoff series at Miami on Thursday night.

Embiid was on the floor with the 76ers for their morning shootaround practice, but coach Brett Brown says there’s no change in the All-Star center’s status.

Embiid has missed Philadelphia’s last 10 games while recovering from a concussion and surgery that repaired a fractural orbital bone around his left eye. He’s no longer in the NBA’s concussion protocol.

He took to social media after the 76ers lost Game 2 of this series to the Heat, saying he’s tired of being “babied.”

Embiid has averaged 22.9 points and 11 rebounds in 63 games for the 76ers during the regular season.