Whether you choose to believe this or not really comes down to how much you believe in ESPN’s Bill Simmons.
But NBA trades do not work where a potential available player is only discussed with one team. If a GM is shopping — or even just testing the market — for a specific player then that idea is bounced off a number of teams. You don’t buy a new car by just showing up at the dealer and taking the price he offers, you check online and get a sense of the price of the car from multiple places before making a purchase. Trades work more like that.
So you can be sure that the Rockets were not the only team James Harden was shopped to before the season. The Rockets just jumped at it and had the best deal. But in his column at Grantland about the worst salaries in the NBA (which is admittedly a week old) Simmons threw in this nugget. (Hat tip to The Big Lead for finding this, I didn’t read the column.)
Multiple sources have told me that, when Oklahoma City’s Sam Presti decided to shop James Harden, Golden State was his first call. He wanted Klay Thompson and a pick. The Warriors would only consider the trade if Oklahoma City took back Biedrins or Jefferson for 2013 expirings, knowing they’d get crushed by the luxury tax in 2014 with Harden’s extension plus Steph Curry’s extension plus David Lee plus Bogut/Jefferson/Biedrins.13 At that point, Presti went to Washington (offering Harden for Bradley Beal, and unbelievably getting turned down), then Houston (where the shopping heated up). Presti never ended up calling Golden State back.
Again, what you think of this depends on what you think of Simmons. The Wizards news isn’t new. You can be sure Presti didn’t just talk to Daryl Morey about the deal, but trades also don’t happen in quite the linear fashion described. There is back and forth over time and usually one option being explored heats up. You can believe what you want, there likely is some truth here at least.
The other thing of note: When this trade went down the question was “How good is James Harden, really?” No doubt he was good, the guy had gone to the finals the year before as a key cog for the Oklahoma City Thunder. But the question was could he be a franchise anchor? He could be a No. 2, a No. 1A maybe, but in OKC Kevin Durant is the Alpha Dog. There were legitimate questions about how Harden would perform when thrown into that role.
Turns out, Harden can be the alpha dog. The guy you can build a franchise around. And the Wizards and Warriors could use a guy like that.
When asked my prediction for the 2017 NBA champion, I say the Warriors have about a 50-50 chance. Some call that a copout answer – but it’s really not.
For a team to have even odds against 29 others combined entering the season is extraordinary.
Just how rare is it?
David Purdum of ESPN:
Jeff Sherman, head NBA oddsmaker at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, remembers the 1997-98 Bulls team, which was coming off a 72-win season, being around a minus-125 title favorite entering that season.
But Sherman and other sports betting industry veterans struggled to recall another team — in basketball, baseball or football — that was an odds-on favorite to start the season.
Michael Jordan, Dennis Rodman and Scottie Pippen led Chicago to the championship in 1998 (which was actually two seasons removed from the 72-win year).
Will Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson also meet their oversized expectations and deliver a title this year?
Flip a coin.
Tyus Jones has a lot to like — he’s a point guard who makes good decisions, his shot is developing (40 percent from three at Summer League), and he’s got skills. Minnesota won the Summer League championship because of Jones’ leadership — just drafted and highly touted Kris Dunn was out for the title game, that’s where Jones shined.
But Dunn is the future at the point in Minnesota, and Ricky Rubio is still there. So Minnesota is seeing what might be out there for Jones, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical at Yahoo Sports.
Minnesota has had talks with Philadelphia, New Orleans, and others about Jones for a while.
Jones is likely a steady backup point guard at the NBA level — he’s a smart passer, knows how to run a team, and as his shot develops he becomes more dangerous. His downside is defense, but as a reserve that’s less of an issue.
For a team like the Sixers — without Jerryd Bayless to start the season — or while New Orleans waits for Jrue Holiday‘s return, Jones makes some sense. The only question is the price going back to Minnesota.
The Bucks got a rude awakening about Greg Monroe‘s value when they tried to sell low on him this offseason – and still got no takers.
Now, Milwaukee seems to have gotten the picture. Monroe – whose agent claimed the center could name his contract terms from multiple teams last year – might opt into the final year of his deal, which would pay $17,884,176.
Zach Lowe of ESPN:
Milwaukee is already preparing for the possibility Monroe opts into his deal for 2017-18, league sources say.
The Bucks indicated this thinking when they extended Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s contract, putting a large 2017-18 salary rather than a relatively low cap hold on the books to begin next offseason. If Monroe opts in, the difference in Antetokounmpo’s initial cap number is far less likely to matter. (Though Antetokounmpo’s extension wasn’t a complete giveaway into Milwaukee’s Monroe expectation, because the Bucks saved over the life of the extension.)
Don’t put it past Monroe to opt out if he believes he can find a better situation. After all, he signed the small qualifying offer to leave a tough basketball fit with Andre Drummond in Detroit. Monroe also took the risk of a shorter detail in Milwaukee. He’s secure enough in himself to at least consider moving on if he’s unhappy.
It’s also possible he finds a satisfying role with the Bucks. They’ll bring him off the bench, which could hide his defensive shortcomings and give him a chance to mash backup bigs. Heck, he could even play well enough to justify opting out.
There’s still a full season before Monroe must decide on his option, and a lot can change by then. But it seems Milwaukee now has a realistic expectation.
The NBA is reportedly closing in on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, and the new deal will still call for owners and players to split Basketball Related Income about 50-50.
So, July’s projection of a $102 million salary cap in 2017-18 still carries weight – except it’s been updated.
Brian Windhorst of ESPN:
Why the change?
Perhaps, the shortfall adjustment – which increases the cap when teams don’t spend enough the previous year – is being revised in the new CBA.
More likely, the league anticipates more revenue. These projections tend to start conservative then rise as July nears.