Los Angeles Lakers v Denver Nuggets

What are the odds the Lakers catch the Jazz, make playoffs?

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Maybe Kobe Bryant had reason to be confident. Entering play Tuesday night the Lakers are the nine seed in the West, 3 games back of 8 seed Houston and 3.5 back of the 7 seed Jazz. Lakers fans look at those numbers and think, “we can make that up.”

But it’s not going to be that easy.

The Rockets have won 6 of their last 10 (same as the Lakers, who have won 11 of their last 15) and are on pace to win 45 games. Same with the Jazz — a team that did not trade Paul Millsap or Al Jefferson at the deadline and is not a team that is going to fall off the cliff and come back to the Lakers (they have won 13 of their last 20). Los Angeles is going to have to earn it — they would need to go 17-7 the rest of the way to get to 45 wins.

But that is crude math.

Over at the invaluable Basketball-Reference they use a probability model that takes into account strength of schedule by playing out the remainder of the season 1,000 times. And still things don’t look all that good for the Lakers.

The Rockets have the easiest schedule in the NBA the rest of the way and so B-R says they should go 15-9 the rest of the way, or finish with 46 wins. That gives them a 96.4 percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Jazz have a tougher schedule the rest of the way and they are more likely the team the Lakers should target. Still, the Jazz are a solid team that B-R has going 12-13 the rest of the way, or finishing with 43 wins.

So the Lakers would have to go 16-8 the rest of the way — win two thirds of their games — to best that mark. Can they? They have the fifth easiest schedule here on out.

Anything is possible but B-R says they would only make the playoffs 27.2 percent of the time In fact, it has them finishing at .500 — 41-41. A couple games short.

There are other models out there. As Ben Golliver noted at Sports Illustrated. ESPN’s projections (using now Memphis front office guy John Hollinger’s model) give the Lakers a 33.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s one in three.

It’s this simple — the Lakers have gone 11-5 in their last 16 and they are going to have to maintain close to that pace the rest of the way — with half their games against likely playoff teams and half on the road — to squeeze past the Jazz or Rockets.

It’s certainly not impossible. But I also wouldn’t go bet the rent money on it.

If I were a Jazz fan I wouldn’t breathe easy, but it is better to be the guy in front being chased than the team desperate to make up ground.

Timberwolves purchase Iowa Energy D-League team

Fort Wayne Mad Ants v Santa Cruz Warriors - 2015 D-League Finals Game Two
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MINNEAPOLIS (AP) The Minnesota Timberwolves have purchased the Iowa Energy and will begin a direct affiliation with the NBA Development League team next season.

The Timberwolves announced the agreement on Monday. Owner Glen Taylor is purchasing the team, which previously had a hybrid partnership with the Memphis Grizzlies. The Wolves will become the 18th NBA team to have a direct affiliation with a D-League team.

It’s a growing trend across the league for franchises to use the minor league teams to help develop young players, coaches and executives and help players rehab injuries.

The Timberwolves were looking for a team close to the Twin Cities to allow for easy back-and-forth travel. Energy owner Jed Kaplan will remain with the team and partner with Taylor.

Denver reportedly claimed Mo Williams off waivers. Again. Then will waive him. Again.

CLEVELAND, OH - JUNE 22:  Mo Williams #52 of the Cleveland Cavaliers looks on during the Cleveland Cavaliers 2016 NBA Championship victory parade and rally on June 22, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio.  (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)
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This is starting to make Vanilla Sky easy to follow.

It’s all about the dead-money contract of Mo Williams, and the Sixers and Nuggets trying to save a few bucks. Everything starts with Williams being owed $2.2 million this season, however, he decided he didn’t want to play anymore and didn’t show up to Cleveland’s training camp. The Cavaliers kept Williams on the roster — and more importantly the financial books — in case they could use his salary in a trade. Which they did, shipping him to Atlanta as part of the Kyle Korver deal. Atlanta quickly traded Williams to Denver, because the Nuggets wanted to add $2.2 million to their payroll and bring them closer to the salary floor. However, the Nuggets didn’t want him on the roster, so they waived him. Then the Philadephia 76ers claimed Williams off waivers — that moved them closer to the salary floor and negated the Nuggets savings. But we’re not done yet, the Sixers didn’t want Williams soaking up a roster spot, so they waived him.

And now we’re back in Denver, reports Marc Stein of ESPN.

That would be Alonzo Gee, who they have already signed to one 10-day contract (he can have two before Denver has to make a decision on keeping him).

Why are Denver and Philly doing this? To save a little money. The NBA doesn’t just have a salary cap, it has a salary floor that is 90 percent of the cap, which means this season it is $84.7 million. Teams that don’t reach the floor — and with the fast rise in the salary cap last summer, there are a few teams in this boat — have to pay the players on the roster the money they are short of the floor (for example, if a team is $10 million, short of the floor, the $10 million gets divided up among the players on the roster). For Denver, they can shave $2.2 million off that bill by being the last team to waive Williams. Philly wanted the same thing.

Salary cap guy Albert Nahmad explained on Twitter who saved how much with all these deals.

Will Philly just claim Williams again? They can, Nahmad explained why they probably will not.

What would be funny now is another team to step in and claim Williams. Okay, it’s not really that funny.

Report: Magic offered first-round pick, Nikola Vucevic to Heat for Goran Dragic

ORLANDO, FL - OCTOBER 26: Goran Dragic #7 of the Miami Heat goes to the basket against Elfrid Payton #4 of the Orlando Magic on opening night on October 26, 2016 at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Manuela Davies/Getty Images)
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We already knew the Magic were interested in Heat point guard Goran Dragic.

Orlando has an excess of power forwards and centers (or players who should be at those positions) – Serge Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green – and have been better with an offense-first D.J. Augustin starting and Elfrid Payton coming off the bench. Dealing a big man for Dragic would be logical.

This isn’t that.

Marc Stein of ESPN:

Orlando, according to league sources, recently tried to engage Miami on a Goran Dragic deal in which the Magic were said to be offering center Nikola Vucevic and a future first-round pick.

Dragic is on the wrong side of 30 and due more than $54 million over the next three years. The Magic are 18-28, 4.5 games and four teams out of playoff position.

Why would they want a player like Dragic?

Orlando should focus on building for future seasons, which means not swapping first-round picks for veterans. There will probably be better avenues for a point guard upgrade offseason. If not, the Magic can always get a solid point guard for one of its bigs and a first-rounder. There should be no rush to pursue a deal like that now, because a late playoff push is impractical.

Perhaps, the protections on the pick are strong enough to make this deal palatable for Orlando. But this just reeks of general manager Rob Hennigan mortgaging the future to show progress now, even if that’s foolish for the organization.

Miller family transfers ownership of Jazz to trust that will keep team in Utah

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - NOVEMBER 4: General view of the former EnergySolutions Arena which has been renamed Vivint Smart Home Arena, where the Portland Trail Blazers will play the Utah Jazz on November 4, 2015 in Salt Lake City, Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gene Sweeney Jr/Getty Images)
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Since Larry Miller died back in 2009, there have been some around the league that thought the Jazz might eventually be sold out of the family, most likely to an owner looking to move them out of Utah. The Miller family has denied that vehemently, and there has been not even a step that direction, but it’s easier to kill Freddy Krueger than an NBA rumor.

Monday, the Miller family killed that rumor for good, taking an unprecedented step that will keep the Jazz in Utah for a long, long, time.

Gail Miller has transferred ownership of the Utah Jazz and Vivint Smart Home Arena into a Legacy Trust that will keep the Jazz in Utah for what she said would be “generations.”

“As a family, we have always considered the Utah Jazz a community asset and it has been our privilege to serve as stewards of this team for more than 30 years,” Miller said. “There have been many opportunities to sell and move the franchise, but from the day Larry and I purchased the Jazz our goal was to keep the team in Utah. The Legacy Trust will help to ensure this commitment is kept for generations to come.”

The Miller family will continue to manage the trust (along with a board of directors) as well as the Jazz the organization. However, the Miller family will not profit from the running of the team as it had before. That eliminates the profit motive for selling the Jazz.

“As a family and company, we have always been committed to doing things the right way and working to achieve our mission of enriching lives and giving back,” said Miller. “This trust and our new corporate structure will continue this important legacy in perpetuity and represents our commitment and deep love for the State of Utah.”

Jody Genessy, Jazz writer for the Deseret News, added these notes from the press conference for the announcement.

This is a huge win for the fans in Utah. It’s also a win for the NBA — billionaires buying up teams with the promise/idea of moving them is not good optics for the league. Adam Silver has favored stability (he was one of the key reasons the Kings are still in Sacramento), and this is a step in that direction.