It’s time for our annual “think about it before you believe it” post.
The Atlanta Hawks are testing the waters to see what Josh Smith might bring them — the fans in Atlanta are ready to send him packing — and Thursday a rumor went public and started gaining traction that the Suns had interest. The idea is the Suns want a new star player (true) and that having missed out on Eric Gordon last summer (the Hornets matched the Suns offer) they were now targeting Smith.
Late Thursday came this tweet from the tapped-in John Gambadoro 620 KTAR sports talk radio.
For the next few weeks, every time you hear a trade rumor think to yourself, “who would benefit by making this public?” Because “sources” don’t leak things to reporters out of the goodness of their heart, they are trying to spin a story, or drum up interest in a trade, or they have some other motive. Answer the “who benefits?” question and it can not only lead you to the source of a rumor but also help you understand its validity.
In the Smith case, the Suns don’t have anything to gain from this talk. Even if they had interest in Smith they would want to do this quietly. But while the Suns want to add a star they don’t want to give up a lot of assets to do it, and trading enough to match Smith’s $13 million salary would be a lot of assets. This trade idea doesn’t make sense for them.
Now, if you’re in the Josh Smith camp, you want to get your guy moved and you’re trying to make it sound like there is a lot of interest… you decide for yourself where you think this came from.
This time of year can be hard to discern truth from fiction, to tell where the fire is through all the smoke. In the case of the Rudy Gay trade, even the night before the trade there were denials that things were close. But if you think about who benefits from a rumor, you get a lot closer to the truth. And you get a feel for what is actually going to happen.