Oklahoma City Thunder's Ibaka plays against San Antonio Spurs during their NBA basketball game in Oklahoma City

Baseline to Baseline recaps: Serge Ibaka is to be feared as Thunder beat Spurs

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Welcome to PBT’s roundup of the day in NBA action. Or, what you missed while thinking “if you’re going to play Santa make sure you fit down the chimney”….

Rockets 109, Knicks 96: Jeremy Lin was back in New York and he doesn’t just play well at Madison Square Garden when Carmelo Anthony is out, he plays well against bad transition defense. He got all of that in an easy Rockets win we broke down here.

Thunder 107, Spurs 93: Serge Ibaka is a man to be feared.

Or at least he should be if you’re a Spur. Ibaka — he of the still developing game — had 25 points and 17 rebounds to led the Thunder. Ibaka started out hot, going 6-for-6 with 10 points with four boards and a blocked shot in the first quarter as he had a lot of success running the pick and roll with Kevin Durant (something the Spurs struggled to stop because Ibaka can both pop out for the midrange or roll hard to the hoop). This was a three-point game at the half but an 11-0 run sparked the Thunder to win the third quarter 29-16 and it was over before the final 12 minutes. Gregg Popovich didn’t even play his stars in the fourth quarter. Tony Parker had 14 points and seven assists. Russell Westbrook had 22.

Grizzlies 80, Bulls 71: You had to figure a showdown between the teams tied for the best defense in the NBA coming into the night (both allow 97 points per 100 possessions, via Hoopdata). You got just that — the winning team shot 37.5 percent. This wasn’t as much a case of terrible offense as it really was two lock-down defenses doing their thing.

Two key things separated the Grizzlies. One was the offensive glass — the Grizzlies grabbed 18 offensive boards, or to be more blunt they got a second chance on 38.7 percent of their missed shots. The other key was the Grizzlies bench, which outscored the Bulls bench 31-16. Wayne Ellington, Jerryd Bayless, Quincy Pondexter, Marreese Speights and Darrell Arthur put together the second quarter Memphis run that gave them the lead for good in this one.

Clippers 88, Pistons 76: If the Clippers were going to go cold for a night shooting, against the Pistons was the place to do it and still get a win — their 10th in a row.

Los Angeles started out ice cold shooting 31.8 percent in the first quarter, and it felt like this might be the night the win streak ended. But the Clippers continued to defend well (Detroit shot just 40 percent), had a 12-2 third quarter run to take control, and got 15 points each from Jamal Crawford and Blake Griffin. It wasn’t pretty for the Clippers but a win is a win. Or 10 of them.

Magic 102, Timberwolves 93: Ricky Rubio played for the Timberwolves Monday and will sit out Tuesday against Miami, part of the reasoning was to try and get the more likely win. The best laid plans of mice and men…

Minnesota led by 15 in the third quarter as they got 23 points and 15 rebounds from Kevin Love. But a 21-6 run started a dramatic comeback that included the Magic shooting 63 percent (12-for-19) in the fourth quarter. Glen Davis had 28 points, J.J. Redick had 18. Maybe the best way to look at it is Minnesota’s Love, Andrei Kirilenko and Nikola Pekovic combined to shoot 17-for-29 in the first half but just 6-for-22 in the second half.

Suns 101, Kings 90: This battle of western conference bottom dwellers was a classic ‘tale of two halves’ game. Led by Jimmer Fredette’s 12 first half points (22 for the game), the Kings found themselves up 54-43. They were controlling the glass on both sides of the ball, benefitting from poor Suns’ shooting (37% in the half), and were well on their way to only their 2nd road win of the year.
In the 2nd half, however, the game turned around completely. Fueled by a dominant 3rd quarter that saw them hold the Kings to only 14 points (while scoring 31 themselves), the Suns grabbed the momentum. Shannon Brown scored 14 points in the period (on 6-7 shooting) while Luis Scola handed out 5 of his game high 10 assists (to go along with his 14 points). In the 4th quarter, the Kings made one last run but that was shut down by two Jared Dudley three pointers and a classic Scola scoop shot in the closing minutes that allowed the Suns to hold on.
—Darius Soriano

Even without Stephen Curry, adjusting for playoff rotations still favors Warriors over Trail Blazers

Portland Trail Blazers' Damian Lillard, right, drives the ball against Golden State Warriors' Draymond Green (23) during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Sunday, April 3, 2016, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
AP Photo/Ben Margot
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When the Warriors put five players expected to be in the playoff rotation on the floor during the regular season, they outscored opponents by 20.9 points per 100 possessions.

No other team even neared that level with five of its own playoff-rotation players.

The second-place Spurs (+13.1 adjusted net rating) were closer to 10th place than first place.

But Golden State’s supremacy obviously took a hit when Stephen Curry got hurt. How do the Warriors rate without him in the rotation?

As I did before the first round, I’ve used nba wowy! to rank Western Conference playoff teams by net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating), counting only lineups that include five players in the team’s postseason rotation. Both the regular season and first round factored.

I wrote more about the Thunder’s and Spurs’ adjusted ratings yesterday. The East will come after its second-round series are set.

For now, here’s each Western Conference team’s rating, from the regular season adjusted to only lineups that include five players projected to be in the second-round rotation:

Western Conference

2. San Antonio Spurs

  • Offensive rating: 110.5 to 110.0
  • Defensive rating: 99.4 to 96.1
  • Net rating: +11.1 to +13.9

3. Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Offensive rating: 113.6 to 117.3
  • Defensive rating: 106.0 to 104.6
  • Net rating: +7.6 to +12.7

1. Golden State Warriors

  • Offensive rating: 114.9 to 119.7 to 109.1
  • Defensive rating: 104.1 to 98.8 to 103.8
  • Net rating: +10.8 to +20.9 to +5.3

5. Portland Trail Blazers

  • Offensive rating: 108.9 to 111.0 to 110.3
  • Defensive rating: 108.2 to 107.9 to 107.5
  • Net rating: +0.7 to +3.1 to +2.8

Observations:

  • By this metric, there’s a clear main event and undercard here – at least if the Spurs and Thunder don’t keep playing like they did last night.
  • Golden State obviously takes a big tumble without Curry, but this measure shows the limit of saying the Warriors got outscored by 3.7 points per 100 possessions without Curry during the regular season. Golden State’s other top players – Draymond Green (88%), Klay Thompson (85%), Andrew Bogut (85%), Harrison Barnes (66%) and Andre Iguodala (60%) – played a majority of their minutes with Curry. Put them on the court more in these Curry-less games, and it’ll help.
  • With Curry in the rotation (and Ian Clark and Brandon Rush out), the Warriors’ adjusted offensive/defensing/net ratings shoot right back up into the stratosphere: 119.8/98.7/+21.1. Golden State must just holds its ground until Curry returns. This measure suggests the Warriors can against Portland, especially with home-court advantage also in their favor.

Playoff Preview: Four things to watch in Portland vs. Golden State series

at ORACLE Arena on April 3, 2016 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.
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Portland has wildly exceeded expectations this season, making the playoffs as the five seed and getting past a banged-up Clippers team to the second round. But the NBA does not do Cinderellas well, this will be the end of the road. Here are the four questions we’re asking heading into this series.

1) When will Stephen Curry return? If Portland has a chance in this series, they need to do a lot of damage before the past-and-future MVP returns from his sprained knee. The question is when will that be? Curry is out for Game 1 and has yet to do any on court work, but Steve Kerr would not rule him out for Game 2 on Tuesday, although that may be gamesmanship as much as anything. But after Game 2 the teams are off for four days until the Saturday, May 7, and that may be enough time for him to return. Whenever he does come back, the dynamics change and the Warriors become a much more dangerous, much better team — one Portland can’t handle. The Blazers need to get all the wins early in this series they can.

Which isn’t very easy, Curry or no.

2) How will the Warriors defend Damian Lillard? When Lillard has gone up against his hometown team — he’s from Oakland — he averaged 36.5 points per game this season. Expect Klay Thompson to draw the assignment to cover him at the start of games, but also expect the Warriors to steal a page from the Clippers’ strategy and trap Lillard and C.J. McCollum each time they come off a pick. The idea is to force the ball out of the hands of the two best playmakers and make Al-Farouq Aminu or Maurice Harkless or anyone else beat you. Aminu and Harkless will find the Warriors defense works on a string better than the Clippers and their shots will get contested.

However, most of the time, the Warriors will switch the pick-and-roll, which they usually do (especially when they go small) and Lillard will find Draymond Green in his face. Blazers coach Terry Stotts has to find ways to get Lillard playing downhill off those picks to have a chance.

3) Can the Trail Blazers hit their threes? In Portland’s win over Golden State in the regular season (just after the All-Star break), they put up 137 points and made it rain threes — the Trail Blazers need to do that again. However, the Warriors were one of the better teams in the league at defending the arc this season, holding opponents to 33.2 percent from deep (second best in the league) and allowing the second fewest corner threes (although they are more willing to allow threes above the arc). Portland does not have a good enough defense to stop Golden State consistently even without Curry, they will just have to outscore the Warriors, and to do that it has to rain threes again.

4) How will Portland defend Klay Thompson and Draymond Green? Both of these key Warriors cogs had strong regular seasons against Portland — Green averaged 16 points, 12 rebounds, and 8.8 assists, while Thompson averaged 29.3 points shooting 59.4 percent from three. Obviously, that was with Curry on the floor drawing defenders, but Portland is not exactly known for their lock-down defense. Without Curry, expect Aminu to get a lot of time on Thompson, but that alone is not going to slow him. Also, expect the Warriors to post up Thompson, Shaun Livingston, or anyone else that Lillard and McCollum guard — the hardest part about defending Golden State is there is no place to hide weak defenders. The Warriors will expose the Portland defense.

Prediction: Warriors in 6. And that assumes Curry is out until Game 5, if he is back earlier than that the series likely ends in 5.

Report: Heat complained to ‘highest levels of the league office’ about favorable calls for Jeremy Lin and Kemba Walker

Charlotte Hornets' Kemba Walker (15) is congratulated by Jeremy Lin (7) after making a basket against the Sacramento Kings in the second half of an NBA basketball game in Charlotte, N.C., Monday, Nov. 23, 2015. The Hornets won 127-122 in overtime. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
AP Photo/Chuck Burton
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The Heat and Hornets are clearly tiring of each other, six games of testiness culminating with Game 7 today.

One particular battle line being drawn is over Jeremy Lin (6.3) and Kemba Walker (5.5), who lead players in this series in free-throw attempts per game.

Marc Stein:

ESPN sources say that one of the factors that ramped up the tension between the teams stems from Miami complaints to the highest levels of the league office after Game 4 about what the Heat deemed to be favorable officiating for Jeremy Lin and Kemba Walker.

Lin and Walker relentlessly driven to the basket. That’s why they’ve attempted so many free throws. If Miami wants to keep them off the line, trap them harder on the perimeter.

That said, this is part of playoff gamesmanship. If the Heat plant a seed with referees – through the league office or otherwise – that Lin and Walker are drawing too many fouls, maybe that affects a call today. With the margins so narrow, every little bit helps.

Watch LaMarcus Aldridge drop 38 on Thunder

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Oklahoma City has more than a few adjustments to make after a brutal defensive effort in Game 1 of their series against San Antonio, but at the top of the list is sticking with LaMarcus Aldridge on defense.

He was killing them from the midrange, and more than half of his looks were uncontested — the Thunder know he can knock down that shot, right?

It was a fantastic performance from Aldridge; we’ll see if he faces tougher defense in Game 2.