Los Angeles Lakers v Los Angeles Clippers

New stats confirm you want to take shots at rim or from three

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It’s a standard lament of old-school coaches and scouts — “the midrange game has died in basketball.”

Statistically, that’s a good thing.

It’s more complicated than that — there are good midrange and bad midrange shots, and those can change player-to-player — but by and large what you want your team to do is take shots right at the rim and from three point range, because that is where you shoot the highest percentage and where you get the most value for the shots.

Over at SBNation today the brilliant Tom Ziller put the results of a stat from a personal favorite site Hoopdata.com — expected effective field goal percentage — on a graph that roughly plots the quality of shots teams take. What the system likes is Denver’s style of play, followed by the Stan Van Gundy Magic — threes and shots at the rim. The graph does not corralate to good teams — the Heat, Lakers, Celtics Bulls and other teams took more mid-range shots than you might like but they have the players that can make them. It goes back to the comlications mentioned above, you’d like to reduce the number of midrange shots overall but if Kobe Bryant can get to the elbow area that’s a good shot he hits at a high percentage.

Oh, and the Bobcats take bad shots and miss them. Not sure we needed the graph for that.

You should read the entire thing, but Ziller sums up his findings this way:

If you look at the correlation between shot rate at each of Hoopdata’s specific ranges, we’ll see that the two efficient zones are not created equal. The percentage of a team’s field goals taken at the rim has a small positive (0.06) correlation with actual eFG. That’s essentially negligible. But the percentage of a team’s field goals taken from beyond the arc has a 0.48 correlation coefficient with eFG. Assuming a linear relationship, that indicates that about 23 percent of a team’s actual shooting percentage is explained solely by how frequently the team takes three-pointers.

Three-pointers rule the land. It’s also worth nothing the biggest problem with long-two pointers: that they are not three-pointers. The share of FGAs taken as long two-pointers has a -0.44 relationship with actual eFG. Shot shares at the two other inefficient ranges — short and mid — also have negative relationships with actual eFG, but with much, much smaller correlation coefficients. Why are long two-pointers such a problem? Check out the correlation between rate of long twos and rate of threes: -0.57. In other words, very few teams take lots of long twos and lots of three-pointers. So every long two is basically a three-pointer not taken. And three-pointers are important.

For those of you that don’t like math, let me sum up — threes and shots at the rim, that is the future. That is where teams have success, and threes matter a lot. Take a lot of long two pointers and your offense will struggle.

Report: Kyle Lowry’s Philadelphia area home was burglarized by jewelry heist ring

Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry reacts after making a 3-point shot against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half of an NBA basketball game in Los Angeles, Sunday, Jan. 1, 2017. The Toronto Raptors won 123-114. (AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo)
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Kyle Lowry is a gold medalist from Rio and a Toronto All-Star (and should be again this season), but at heart he is a Philly guy. He was born and raised in Philadelphia, and went to college right there at Villanova. He still has a home in the area.

A home that was burglarized recently, according to a report at CBS Philadelphia, who talked to local police.

A multi-million dollar jewelry burglary ring is cracked in the Delaware Valley as investigators are trying to recover all the jewels stolen from victims, including an NBA star player….

The Main Line home of Toronto Raptors’ Kyle Lowry was hit, police sources said.

Responding to an email from CBS3, a spokesman for the Raptors said Lowry, a former Villanova basketball standout, politely declined comment for this story.

Lowry was far from alone in being targeted, and a couple of people who fell victim to the ring lost more than $500,000, according to the report.

The crew had ties to a shop on “Jewelers’ Row” in the city, which served as a front for the ring tried to move millions of dollars in stolen jewelry, according to the report. Wasim Shazad, the owner of the shop, was arrested but is now out on bail as he moves through the legal process.

 

NBA: Timberwolves got away with defensive three-second violation on pivotal stop in win over Nuggets

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To the delight of the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Timberwolves themselves and any other Western Conference team with playoff designs, Minnesota knocked off the eighth-place Nuggets on Sunday. Denver is now just a half game up for postseason position.

But perhaps the Nuggets would have more breathing room if the game featured correct officiating down the stretch.

With the Timberwolves trying to protect a two-point lead, Karl-Anthony Towns got away with a defensive three-second violation with 35 seconds left, according to the NBA’s Last Two Minute Report

Towns (MIN) is in the paint without actively guarding an opponent for longer than three seconds.

Towns is clearly matched up with Nikola Jokic, but the rules require Towns to be “within arms length of an offensive player and in a guarding position.” Towns is playing too far off Jokic to qualify.

Danilo Gallinari got away with travelling one second later, but a correct call would’ve stopped play and given any Denver player on the court – likely Gallinari, who’s shooting 89% from the line this season and 86% – a single free throw. Then, the Nuggets would’ve taken the ball out of bounds with a fresh chance to score.

Instead, with Towns covering the paint, Minnesota forced a miss and grabbed the defensive rebound. Denver began intentionally fouling, and the Timberwolves escaped with a 111-108 win that altered wide-open chase for the No. 8 seed in the West.

Pistons-Kings game delayed for smoke over court (video)

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DeMarcus Cousins, in his eternal battle with referees (and everyone else), retroactively won every argument he’s ever had when he had to alert the officials in last night’s Pistons-Kings game to the large cloud of smoke coming toward the court. It was only then that the refs stopped play.

But the best reaction to the mistimed fog machine was Sacramento coach Dave Joerger:

LeBron James tweets: I’m not mad at Cavaliers GM David Griffin

CLEVELAND, OH - DECEMBER 25: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers rallies his teammates in the huddle during player introductions prior to the game Golden State Warriors at Quicken Loans Arena on December 25, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory copyright notice. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
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After tearing into the Cavaliers’ roster construction last night, LeBron James said he’d tweet even more thoughts.

LeBron delivered, softening the point everyone amplified (that he wants roster improvements) and emphasizing the point that got overlooked (that he’s on board with Cleveland general manager David Griffin):

I’m guessing LeBron saw how his comments went over and wanted to quiet the storm he created. What he said sounds so much more resentful. These tweets read as much more constructive.

But the underlying point remains: LeBron is unsatisfied with the roster.

He won’t be a free agent until 2018, but remember, dissatisfaction with the Heat’s roster contributed to him bolting Miami.