USA vs. Spain for the gold: We know how this is going to end. USA gold.
Spain has some real talent — Pau Gasol and Marc Gasol team up to make what would be the best front line in the NBA (well, maybe not anymore) and they surround the brothers with smart, playmaking guards who can shoot — Jose Calderon, Juan Carlos-Navarro, Rudy Fernandez. Spain can put up points.
And Spain has a plan for the USA — they learned some things in that exhibition loss to Team USA in Barcelona before the Olympics. Spain ran a zone on 15 of the 78 possessions in that game and the USA was 3-for-12 shooting with three turnovers against it. Expect to see a lot more of it now. Also, the USA struggled with the combo of Pau and Serge Ibaka, so Spain went away from it in that game, they will not go away from what works now.
And none of that is going to matter in the Gold Medal game Sunday.
When Team USA is playing well — when they are focused, pressuring on defense, sharing the ball and hitting threes — nobody can beat them. Nobody can stay close to them. Not Spain, not anybody.
And the USA, with as deep a team as they have had (at least since ’92) someone has always gotten hot. Usually it has been designated shooters Kevin Durant (18 points per game and shooting 55.8 percent from three for the Olympics) or Carmelo Anthony (17.4 points per game and 52.5 percent from three), but we have seen spurts of unstoppable play from LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Russell Westbrook and everyone but Anthony Davis.
When the USA has struggled with teams — Lithuania, stretches against Argentina and even Australia — it is because two things happen. First, they take their foot off the defensive gas pedal, the pressure and intensity go away. Part of the USA’s strength is the depth of great athletes that wear teams down, but if the USA lets Spain have space and time to think they have the talent to make plays. They have to be pressured (and they have the talent to still make some good plays, just not enough).
Second, the threes don’t fall. That is the one thing that could undo the United States in the Gold Medal game. They are going to take more than 30 threes and if they hit 20 percent or less Spain has the offensive firepower to hang. Spain will live in their zone and let the USA launch threes all day.
But eventually they will fall. There is too much talent on the USA, too many good shooters, the shots will start to fall. They may not for a quarter or maybe a half, but they will.
And then the USA will run away with the game and gold. Spain is a good team, but nobody in the world is good enough.