Boston Celtics v Miami Heat - Game Seven

Five keys for Miami to become NBA champions

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No doubt, Miami can win these NBA finals. They may be mild underdogs, but they are in this. LeBron can get the ring he craves.

Yes, I picked Oklahoma city to win (in six). It’s not that the Heat don’t have the talent, I’m just not convinced that for four out of seven games they can execute for 48 minutes at the level it will take for them to win this series.

What do they need to ex? Glad you asked. Here are the five keys to Miami beating Oklahoma City in the NBA finals.

1) LeBron James needs to be exceptional. This is not the “LeBron James needs to be clutch” argument, unless (like me) you consider the entire finals clutch. Besides, like Game 6 against Boston, you can be clutch from the opening tip and not need to make a shot late.

But right now the Heat cannot score enough points to keep up with the Celtics — let alone a team with an powerful offense like the Thunder — unless LeBron James puts up monster numbers. He has to play like the MVP and then some. It’s what they’ve become. He needs to be getting those points in attack mode driving the lane, but if he wants to have one of those “I can’t miss from the midrange” games like he had in Game 6 against Boston the Heat will take it.

2) Miami needs focused, intense defense. All the time. Miami has the best defense that Oklahoma City has seen this playoffs — they are athletic, they are long, they can clog passing lanes and force you into isolation plays. Miami loves to switch on pick-and-rolls and they can do that without creating some of the mismatches that the Thunder exploit against other teams. The Heat can force turnovers and instantly spin those into dramatic transition points the other way. Miami can slow the Thunder down.

Except…

Boston — the 25th best offense in the NBA during the regular season — put up more than 100 points twice and more than 90 points two other times on that Heat defense in the last series. Miami did not bring much focus and intensity on defense every game, or even every quarter of every game.

Miami can’t do that in this series — you give the Thunder offense a crack in the door they will blow it open and run you over. Miami just needs to be focused, they need to use whatever emotional edge they can to bring that defensive effort every game.

3) Heat spot up shooters have to knock down shots. When Miami beat Oklahoma City at home on April 4, their spot up shooters hit 9-of-18 looks, 6-of-10 from three (they were 7-of-21 on spot ups in their loss to this team). Oklahoma City made a point of really showing out on the pick-and-roll, the big jumping out very early and hit to cut off driving lanes. The Thunder were very aggressive. The price for that is the Heat are one or two passes away from someone else getting a good look. LeBron and Dwyane Wade are willing passers, but the Heat shooters have been hit and miss these players. They have to knock down those looks to win.

4) Chris Bosh needs to play more minutes, step up on court. Bosh is huge for the Heat’s offense and you saw that in Game 7 against Boston — when LeBron and Wade are driving the lane, Bosh puts pressure on the opposing big because you can’t cheat off him to protect the rim or he will knock down threes. He needs to do that in an expanded roll against the Thunder. He also will need to be big on the boards — in their two regular season meeting the team that controlled the glass won and this series will see more of the same.

5) Dwyane Wade needs to physically and mentally be ready to go. Dwyane Wade has been good these playoffs, but has been battling a left knee problem and has not been outstanding, other than for spurts. He needs to have some better-than-good offensive games, which will not be easy with Thabo Sefolosha getting time on him. What’s more, he needs to be good on defense again — he gambled a lot against the Celtics and at times that was exposed. Do that against the Thunder and they will make you pay fast and every time.

Kevin Durant: ‘They’re not going to suspend Draymond Green. He’s one of the premier players in the league’

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MAY 22:  Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors drives against Kevin Durant #35 of the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first quater in game three of the Western Conference Finals during the 2016 NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena on May 22, 2016 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by J Pat Carter/Getty Images)
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Kiki VanDeWeghe, the NBA’s executive vice president of basketball operations, insisted his decision to give Draymond Green a flagrant 2 rather than suspending him had nothing to do with Green’s star status or the Warriors’ place in league history.

But Kevin Durant doesn’t believe that.

Royce Young of ESPN:

Durant:

They’re not going to suspend Draymond Green. He’s one of the premier players in the league on arguably one of the best teams in the history of the game. They’re not going to suspend him. I didn’t even really think about it. I knew the league was going to let him play or fine him or upgrade him to a flagrant 2. We all knew that was going to happen. The league is about business.

Durant will probably get fined for this. Team employees questioning the league’s integrity is at the heart of why the NBA fines people. The league is trying to protect its image, and Durant completely blew that up.

I have no idea whether Durant is right. I can read VanDeWeghe’s mind as much as I can Green’s while he’s extending his foot toward Steven Adams‘ groin. I.e., I can’t. There’s definitely financial interest in extending the Western Conference finals (which the Thunder lead 2-1) keeping the best players on the floor and having bigger markets advance deeper into the playoffs. But there’s also financial interest in people believing the NBA is fair. It’s not always clear how the league balances those sometimes-competing forces.

Here’s what I know: This is getting fun. It was fun when Russell Westbrook was involved in the Green controversy. It’s even better with Durant looping himself in.

7-foot-6 Mamadou Ndiaye staying in NBA draft

SEATTLE, WA - MARCH 20:  Mamadou Ndiaye #34 of the UC Irvine Anteaters in action against Mangok Mathiang #12 and Quentin Snider #2 of the Louisville Cardinals during the second round of the 2015 Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament at Key Arena on March 20, 2015 in Seattle, Washington.  (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
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The 7-foot-6 Mamadou Ndiaye declared for the NBA draft without an agent.

And he’s staying in it.

Jeff Goodman of ESPN:

If Ndiaye makes it to the NBA, he’d be the league’s tallest player since Yao Ming – becoming just the fifth player taller than 7-foot-5 to play in the league. Gheorghe Muresan and Manute Bol were 7-foot-7, and Shawn Bradley and Yao were also 7-foot-6.

But Ndiaye is not a lock even to be drafted, let alone make a roster. He has developed tremendously, but he’s still unrefined offensively – though good luck stopping him when he gets the ball near the basket. Defensively, he protects the rim and is predictably awful in space. Teams have too much shooting to allow him just to camp out in the paint.

Someone could take a flier on him in the second round – especially if he’s willing to delay signing to spend a year in the D-League or overseas.

Going pro is probably a good move for Ndiaye, though. He needs to face taller and more athletic foes than he sees in the Big West.

Cavaliers getting open 3s again, just not making them

TORONTO, ON - MAY 23: Kyrie Irving #2 of the Cleveland Cavaliers shoots a three point basket in front of the Toronto Raptors bench in the third quarter in game four of the Eastern Conference Finals during the 2016 NBA Playoffs at the Air Canada Centre on May 23, 2016 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
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LeBron James backed down Kyle Lowry on the left block and swung a bullet pass to Matthew Dellavedova in the right corner. As Dellavedova caught the pass, Richard Jefferson screened a closing DeMar DeRozan, ensuring Dellavedova remained open for his 3-point attempt.

Airball.

LeBron tapped the rebound to Channing Frye for a 3-pointer from the top of the key, his spot.

Miss.

After that sequence with about two and a half minutes left, the Cavaliers scored just three more points in their Game 4 loss to the Raptors. The Cavs are again getting the outside looks they desire. They’re just not making them.

Toronto (relatively) shut down Cleveland’s potent long-range attack in Games 1 and 2, holding the Cavaliers to 7-of-20 and 7-of-21 3-point shooting as Cleveland took advantage inside. The Cavs averaged 36 3-point attempts per game in the first two rounds.

But the Cavaliers have adjusted in Games 3 and 4, taking 41 treys in each game. Their 27 and 29 open 3-pointers (defined as the defender being at least four feet away) are right in line with their averages against the Pistons and Hawks and far above the 13 and 15 they produced in Games 1 and 2:

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Cleveland just isn’t making those open 3s.

The Cavaliers shot 34.5% on open 3-pointers in Game 4, a far cry from the 43.6% these made against Detroit and 51.5% they made against Atlanta. It’s even below their regular season mark of 37.8% – which is misleadingly low, considering Channing Frye – a key playoff 3-point shooter – didn’t arrive until a midseason trade.

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There’s a school of thought that 3-point defense is more about limiting attempts than lowering percentage. The Cavs are generating plenty of good attempts. They space the floor and share the ball, getting it to open shooters. LeBron attracts so much attention.

They were probably bound to regress from their hot shooting in the first two rounds. But likewise, they’re better than they appeared in Game 4.

If the Cleveland keeps getting these shots, I’m not convinced Toronto has much control over whether they go in.

The Cavaliers just have to make them.

Report: Goran Dragic pledged to re-sign with Suns before they traded him

PHOENIX, AZ - FEBRUARY 10:  Goran Dragic #1 of the Phoenix Suns moves the ball upcourt during the second half of the NBA game against the Houston Rockets at US Airways Center on February 10, 2015 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Rockets defeated the Suns 127-118.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
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With trade rumors swirling, Goran Dragic told the Suns in February 2015 that he wouldn’t re-sign the following summer. Dragic said he no longer trusted Phoenix’s front office.

So, the Suns traded him to Miami.

But did they have to?

Then-Phoenix coach Jeff Hornacek apparently got Dragic to change his stance.

Ken Berger of CBSSports.com:

Within days of Hornacek having a heart-to-heart with Dragic and securing a commitment from the Slovenian point guard to re-sign with the Suns as a free agent the following summer, the Suns shipped him to Miami in a three-team trade, a person familiar with the situation told CBS Sports.

This substantially changes how we view that trade. At the time, it seemed the Suns got a tremendous haul for a player they were going to lose anyway. But if they could’ve re-signed him, it changes the equation.

Maybe not enough to say Phoenix erred, though.

Dragic was clearly wavering in his thinking. He later said he regretted his harsh comments about the front office. Just because he told Hornacek he’d re-sign doesn’t mean he was bound to re-sign

And Phoenix got solid return – a top-seven protected 2017 first-rounder that becomes unprotected in 2018 and an unprotected 2021 first-rounder. Picks with so few protections rarely move anymore. The Heat look solid right now, but they’re fairly old. That far into the future, anything can happen – giving those picks great upside.

So, maybe the Suns still made the right move. But maybe just keeping Dragic was more on the table than we previously realized.