Miami Heat v Boston Celtics - Game Six

Heat-Celtics Game 7 Preview: The thing about chaos is it’s fair

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You want to know the truth about this game, the hidden, ugly, “no one will talk about it because it’s like running a news report on the Disney Channel about how Santa isn’t real” truth?

Game 7 between the Heat and the Celtics? All that drama, all the impact on legacies and careers and the huge mega-importance of this game?

It’s a coin flip. Game 7 is nothing but a coin flip.

In reality, Game 6 was as well. These two have battled to the marrow throughout this series. All that talk bout officiating and conspiracies and clutch? That’s a result of two evenly matched teams going down to the wire in nearly every game. The gap in point differential, after the Heat blew the Celtics out of the water in Game 6? 1.7. That’s it. The two teams are separated after six games by less than a bucket. There is no better team. And we hate that.

We abhor the idea of the better team not advancing. It strikes a chord in us that fires off our cognitive dissonance alarms like nothing else. The better team has to win. But what if there isn’t one?

Boston’s offense has overperformed in this series. You can talk about clutch players and experience and rising to the occasion all you want. I think there are times when those cliches hold true. This is not one of them. They’re facing a dominant defense in its own right, and to be honest, they take a lot of pretty terrible shots. I don’t care what’s in your guts or between your legs, you’re not going to hit contested pull-up jumpers at a high rate, especially not from mid-range, and especially not against a defense as good as this one. But here it is. And there are concrete reasons that go beyond luck. Rajon Rondo’s singular brilliance. That play where he tip-passed it to Mickael Pietrus is a great example. But think about what had to happen there. Wade has to block Bass just right. Not so hard that it flies over Rondo’s head, not soft so that a Heat player collects it. He has to tap that ball just right, and that’s on Rondo and his brilliance. But he has to get it just over James also reaching. Pietrus has to have the wherewithal to stand in the corner and be ready for the catch, Mickael Pietrus being known for his heady play and stable mind on the court, and then has to knock down a massive shot. This is part glory of championship teams, and part ridiculousness of chaos. Anyone breathes different on that court and the entire story changes.

Think I’m just bagging on the Celtics? Try this. Miami? Just as much of an outlier. LeBron James has an off-balance jumper. He just does. George Karl has talked about it. David Thorpe at ESPN has talked about it. Coaches and scouts and experts have talked about it. He doesn’t trust his jumper, but he feels the need to go to it. If Michael Jordan never existed, LeBron James is the best player, ever. I firmly believe that, and not because he’s No.2 behind Jordan. He’s not. But having grown up and watched Jordan like so many kids of his generation, the push-off on Russell, the shot over Ehlo, he learned the same thing. You win games by hitting big jumpers. This, from a 6-8, 280 lb. hulking monster of unstoppable force is insane. But it’s what he is. And in Game 6? Every outlier came home to roost. Does that take away from his ability or the magnificence of that game? Absolutely not. Hitting those shots takes a phenomenal amount of concentration, just like Pietrus’. It takes the ability to create those shots in the first place. It takes resolve and determination and God-given ability, all of which James showed in an absolutely brilliant performance from stop to finish.

It’s also not bloody likely to happen again. Can it? Sure. Will it? Again, it’s not probable.

What does this tell us about Game 7? It sets up the same things we knew before. It comes down to who makes shots. Sounds simple, right? But that’s not what a series is about. It’s about adjustments and counter-adjustments and effort and preparation and more than anything talent and execution. But Game 7’s are about who has it that night. The Lakers had it in 2010. The Spurs had it in 2008. The Celtics had it vs. Philadelphia, the Clippers vs. the Grizzlies, the Lakers vs. the Nuggets. It doesn’t always mean both teams are even. But one team will have the extra arc on the ball to tilt it in, the rims will forgive one team more than the other, and that will determine all of this. So much pressure, so many consequences, so many lives changed, and it all hinges on the wings of a butterfly, the temperature in the arena, the bead of sweat trickling down LeBron James’ forehead. Think about that when you compare it to your life’s biggest moments.

We’re all victims and subjects and participants in chaos, and in fate, and here’s really no place better to be.

These teams are incredibly evenly matched and the outcome does not determine who is the better team. They are both great teams. The Celtics can blow them out, the Heat can blow the Celtics out, it can be an overtime or triple-overtime or an ugly or beautiful game and it won’t change what we’ve learned. These teams are both worthy of the Finals. One goes, one goes home. That’s life. That’s chaos.

That’s fair.

All-NBA teams announced, and Anthony Davis loses $24 million

OAKLAND, CA - MARCH 14:  Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans dunks the ball over Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors at ORACLE Arena on March 14, 2016 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
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The NBA has released the list of players selected to the three All-NBA teams, and most of them are the people you’d expect to make it. But two players are affected by the voting in very different ways: Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard.

Here are the selections:

FIRST TEAM ALL-NBA

SECOND TEAM ALL-NBA

THIRD TEAM ALL-NBA

These selections are fine. There are areas where it’s possible to quibble (is DeMarcus Cousins worthy despite not being on a playoff team? Should Kyle Lowry and Damian Lillard switch spots?) But the voters largely got it right and honored the right group of players.

The much more interesting dynamic is how the voting affects the contracts of Lillard and Davis, who were both Rose rule candidates. The so-called “Derrick Rose” rule, put in place in the 2011 CBA, allows players signed to a five-year “designated player” extension to earn a larger percentage of the cap and higher annual raises if they either a) win MVP, b) get voted as a starter to two All-Star teams, or c) make two All-NBA teams during their rookie contract.

Davis and Lillard both signed five-year max extensions last summer. Davis made first team All-NBA last season, so he would have been eligible for the Rose rule if he had made a team this year. But he fell short in an injury-plagued season in which the Pelicans missed the playoffs. His extension will now be worth around $120 million over the five years, instead of $145 million.

Lillard, meanwhile, made third team All-NBA last season, so his second-team selection this year secures an extra $24 million over the course of his extension. This won’t matter much for the Blazers, who are so far under the salary cap that they can sign pretty much anybody they want, but Lillard has to be happy with the recognition after he was infamously left off the Western Conference All-Star team this season.

Magic will look to make a splash in free agency this summer

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - MARCH 31: Elfrid Payton #4 of the Orlando Magic dribbles the ball during the game against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on March 31, 2016 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
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This is going to be a big summer for the Orlando Magic. They’ve been rebuilding for the past four years, since the Dwight Howard trade in 2012, and have amassed a promising collection of young talent including Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Mario Hezonja and Aaron Gordon. They just hired a coach, Frank Vogel, with a proven track record of success in the playoffs. Now, they want to take the next step in the rebuilding process and get back into the playoffs. With as much as $46 million in cap room, CEO Alex Martins told Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel that he wants to make a splash in free agency and add some veterans to surround their prospects.

Why the sudden openness for the notoriously tight-lipped Magic?

“Because that’s what we need at this point in time to take the next step,” Magic CEO Alex Martins said. “Secondly, this has been a plan, this has been a process. The first part of the plan and the process is to develop your own [players] and grow your own [players]. And when you inject veterans at the wrong period of time, it has an impact in the way that you’re trying to develop your corps of young players. It can’t just happen immediately. It’s got to happen at a certain point in time — after your players have matured and developed.

“And we always believed that this summer and next summer were going to be the two summers of free agency for us that we needed to focus on after developing our young guys.”

The Magic aren’t traditionally a destination franchise for big-name free agents, the exception being the summer of 2000 when they landed Grant Hill and Tracy McGrady. But they made a big offer last summer to Paul Millsap (who decided to stay in Atlanta), and are expected to make a run this summer at Millsap’s teammate, Al Horford. Horford played college basketball at the University of Florida, so he has ties to the area, as does Chandler Parsons. Whether or not they land any of these names, their combination of location (Florida has no state income tax), young talent and a well-respected coach should get them into the conversation this summer.

Five Things Warriors must do to win Game 5, take first step toward comeback

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK - MAY 24:  Stephen Curry #30 and Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors react in the third quarter against the Oklahoma City Thunder in game four of the Western Conference Finals during the 2016 NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena on May 24, 2016 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
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What is stunning is not that the Warriors lost two games in a row, it’s how they lost them — the length and athleticism of the Oklahoma City Thunder have completely overwhelmed the Warriors. The 73-win defending champions have been completely outclassed and have lost their poise. How do they get that swagger back? Here are the five things they need to do to win Game 5, the first step on the road to their long-shot comeback.

1) Stephen Curry and Draymond Green need to play much better.
We start with the obvious — Golden State’s best players simply have to play better. For Curry, the combination of the length and athleticism of the Thunder defenders, plus the fact he just doesn’t look 100 percent, have led to some ugly shooting numbers (6-of-20 shooting last game, he’s 5-of-21 from three the last two games) plus a lot of ugly turnovers. The Warriors are doing a seamless job with their switching of picks on- and off-the-ball, cutting off a lot of the gaps and driving lanes Curry likes to take advantage of. The Thunder are making things hard for him and being physical with him. But now even when Curry has gotten space to shoot a three — and he has gotten enough space at times — or when he has blown past his defender and gotten to the rim, he’s missed. Plus, the length of Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka have blown up the Curry/Green pick-and-roll that is at the heart of Golden State’s “death lineup.”

Likely because of lingering knee issues, Curry lacks the same explosiveness, he’s off just a little, and that with the length of Thunder defenders that takes away his margin for error. Simply put, Curry has to turn it around. We’ve seen flashes of elite Curry these playoffs — fourth quarter and OT of Game 4 vs. Portland, the third quarter of Game 2 vs. OKC — but the MVP Curry of the regular season sustained those kinds of runs, he was far more consistent. The Warriors need that Curry back.

And as bad as Curry has been, Green has been worse — Green is -73 in the last two games.  He is 2-of-13 shooting with nine turnovers in the last six quarters of basketball this series. He has been slow footed on defense. Again the length and athleticism of the Thunder are giving him problems inside, ones he hasn’t just been able to overcome with intensity and effort (because the Thunder have matched it). Green also has to get back to his All-Star form, his All-Defensive team form, or the Warriors are not the same.

2) Play better transition defense. That Thunder defense is forcing turnovers and missed shots, which in turn is leading to transition chances for the Thunder — and Russell Westbrook is not being stopped in transition. The Thunder are +17 this series in fast break points against the team nobody wanted to run with. The Warriors have to limit turnovers, start knocking down some shots, but also defend better when they get back in transition (they got back a little better last game, but they looked more like traffic cones for the Thunder players to dribble around then active defenders).

3) Andrew Bogut has to stay on the court, other Warrior bigs need to step up. Steve Kerr talked about this — the Warriors are +12 points per 100 possessions this series when Bogut is on the court, their defense improves 15.9 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors need more Bogut, the problem is he’s garnered 13 fouls in just 56 minutes of action. He’s almost always in foul trouble, in part because the Thunder are attacking (and the aggressors get the calls in the NBA). But Bogut — and Festus Ezeli, ideally less Anderson Varejao (if any) — have to do a much better job both protecting the rim and grabbing rebounds. The Warriors are getting destroyed on the glass (OKC is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA).

“We’re forcing stops, we’re getting stops, but we’re not going and getting the ball,” Kerr said. “We have to be able to chase down loose balls and long rebounds. Otherwise, they’re getting just way too many possessions compared to us.”

4) Time to guard Andre Roberson a a little, maybe with Curry so he’s not getting torched by Westbrook. The Warriors tried to give Roberson the Tony Allen treatment — “cover” him with a big who stays near the basket to protect the rim, daring Roberson to shoot from the outside. Well, in Game 3 Roberson was 3-of-5 from three. In Game 4, Billy Donovan brilliantly started using Roberson like a center on offense — setting picks and rolling to the rim, or making cuts to the basket — which led to 17 points. The Warriors have to start covering him. Might I suggest putting Curry on him? Because for large swaths of the last couple games Curry has been on Westbrook and that has been a disaster for Golden State — Curry simply is not going to be able to stay in front of Westbrook. Not that anyone can, but the Warriors have better options.

5) Stop turning the ball over. We started with an obvious one, we’ll end with an obvious one — the length and active hands of the Thunder on defense has forced a lot of Golden State turnovers. But the Warriors have helped out, Curry in particular in Game 4 made some ill-advised passes — this is not the Portland defense anymore. The Warriors like to have a lot of flair, some playground in their game, but they need to be careful with that this series. Those turnovers have led to transition buckets for the Thunder, fueling the runs that put the Warriors in holes they have not been able to climb out of. The Warriors need to take care of the ball.

The Warriors may well be able to do all five of these things well enough to win at home Thursday, but could they do it on the road in a Game 6 is another question. The Warriors aren’t worrying about that yet; they need to get things right in Game 5 or their playoff run ends tonight.

Report: David Fizdale agrees to four-year deal to coach Grizzlies

LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 17:  (L-R) NBA players LeBron James, David Fizdale, Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen and Erik Spoelstra accept award for Best Team onstage at The 2013 ESPY Awards at Nokia Theatre L.A. Live on July 17, 2013 in Los Angeles, California.  (Photo by Frederick M. Brown/Getty Images for ESPY)
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The Memphis Grizzlies’ head coaching position has been filled. On Wednesday, The Vertical‘s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the team had offered the gig to longtime Miami Heat assistant David Fizdale, and that the sides were working on contract terms. Now, Wojnarowski reports that it’s a done deal.

Fizdale, who has been in Miami since 2008, is extremely well-liked by players he’s coached, as evidenced by their reactions on Twitter to news that he was close to getting the job. He was there for both of the Heat’s Big Three-era championships, and two players on those teams — Mario Chalmers and Chris Andersen — played for the Grizzlies this year. His reputation around the league could make Memphis an attractive spot for free agents, especially if Mike Conley stays.