Heat-Celtics Game 5: Bosh will be the difference, not Rondo

48 Comments

No doubt, Rajon Rondo has been fantastic against the Heat in the Eastern Conference finals. He had a 44-point game, he dropped 15 and 15 on Miami in Game 4 and led Boston to even the series. For Celtics fans wanting to be convinced he was the bridge to a strong future, he has been that and more.

But Boston’s offense has not been dominant in this series — they averaged 93.9 points per 100 possessions against the Heat last game (worse than every team’s regular-season average save the Bobcats) and scored just 28 points in the second half. They won that game because of their defense.

And that’s why Chris Bosh will be the story of Game 5 — all signs point to him playing and he rapidly improves everything the Heat do on offense. He may be rusty to start, but just his presence changes things. Miami is back home and will put up plenty of points in Game 5, numbers Boston will be hard pressed to match.

No matter what my NBC Sports Network colleagues think, Bosh is the key, not Rondo to Game 5.

(UPDATE: Bosh might have more on his mind than just basketball, with the news out that a masseuse died at his house.)

It’s been obvious all series — when Kevin Garnett is off the floor suddenly LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are on an open highway to the rim. And not some East Coast toll road either, this is a California six-lane super highway. Nobody gets in their way and the Heat make runs. Garnett has been the guy at the heart of keeping Wade in check (well, that and Wade’s knee).

However, Garnett cannot help off Bosh the same way he helps off Udonis Haslem or any of the other Heat big men — Bosh will knock down the shot and make him pay. Garnett and the other Celtics big men will have much tougher decisions to make on help rotations.

Don’t just take my word for it.

“(Bosh) helps (the Heat), because all the trapping we’re doing is harder because he stretches the floor,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said in a Monday press conference. “He’s long. We can close out on the ball and get a hand on the ball (when Battier or Haslem shoot). You can’t do that with Bosh. It will be more difficult.”

Right now, Wade or LeBron come off the high pick and Boston shows no respect to the roll man — that changes, because Bosh can both roll or pop out and score. Even if he’s rusty to start, you can’t just leave him. And that opens up everything for two of the best attacking wings in the game.

Miami has really only played near their peak in spurts these playoffs, but when the Heat felt their backs were against the wall, they have stepped up. This is a backs-against-the-wall game, and the Heat their trio back.

We’ll hear about how Boston is a scrappy, veteran team — and they are, this will not be easy — but Wade and Haslem have rings, LeBron has been to two NBA finals, and this is not an inexperienced Heat team.

The Heat have fought through nine games without Bosh and won enough to keep moving on, but they were not themselves. You get a feeling Game 5 is the kind of place they show up on fire — particularly on defense. That is where it shows when they relax. Miami can’t do that Tuesday night.

We know Boston will bring its fire, we know Rondo will play well, we know what they can do. If Miami doesn’t bring its “A” game, Boston will have the chance to close this series out at home. But Bosh makes it easier on the Heat to be the team they need to be. Much easier.

As expected, Blake Griffin reportedly opted out of contract with Clippers

1 Comment

Doc Rivers says he wants Blake Griffin back with the Clippers next season.

The bigger question: Does Blake Griffin want to be back with the Clippers next season?

The decision is in Griffin’s hands as he has done what was expected, opting out of his contract for the coming season, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical at Yahoo Sports.

A number of teams — Boston, Miami, and others — are expected to take a run at Griffin. (In Boston’s case, he’s a backup plan to Gordon Hayward, but there will be conversations.)

What Chris Paul — also expected to opt out and become a free agent this summer — and Griffin choose to do will help set the market. They are two of the biggest free agent names out there where they could switch teams (Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant are staying put). If they take their time making a decision, it leaves the Clippers in a bind — they have to wait to hear from these two before starting replacing or rebuilding, but by the time they know other players may have decided — and could bottleneck the free agent process.

The Clippers are going to be one interesting team to watch this summer.

Pistons’ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope suspended two games for DUI

AP Photo
1 Comment

This is the standard penalty for coaches and players hit with a DUI. I don’t think the penalty is stiff enough in general for a serious issue, but this is the precedent that has been set.

Detroit Pistons’ guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been suspended two games by the NBA for “pleading guilty to operating a motor vehicle while intoxicated, in violation of the law of the State of Michigan,” the NBA announced. He will miss the first two games of next season.

This will not stop Caldwell-Pope from getting PAID this summer.

A quality wing defender who hit 35 percent from three last season, he plays a position of need for a lot of teams and he is a restricted free agent. Other teams with cap space — Brooklyn and Sacramento come to mind — could step in and give him a max or near max offer. Then Stan Van Gundy needs to decide if he is going to match. He may not have much of a choice, if he wants to keep Andre Drummond and build an inside-out team around him, he needs Caldwell-Pope, and the Pistons don’t have the cap space to replace him.

One way or another, Caldwell-Pope is in line for a massive pay raise. This suspension will not slow teams, it just takes a little money out of his pocket.

 

Lonzo Ball tops Rookie of the Year early betting odds

3 Comments

If you are betting right now on next year’s NBA Rookie of the Year award, you are a die-hard fan of your team and their new addition. Or, you have a problem and need to seek help. Maybe both.

Either way, the people at the gambling site Bovada have posted the early betting odds for the ROY award for next season.

Lonzo Ball (Lakers) 5/2
Ben Simmons (76ers) 3/1
Markelle Fultz (76ers) 5/1
De”Aaron Fox (Kings) 7/1
Josh Jackson (Suns) 9/1
Jayson Tatum (Celtics) 9/1
Jonathan Isaac (Magic) 16/1
Malik Monk (Hornets) 16/1
Dennis Smith (Mavericks) 16/1
John Collins (Hawks) 20/1
Justin Jackson (Trail Blazers) 22/1
Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) 22/1

Yes, Ben Simmons is in the mix.

The two bets I like here, if I were a gambling man, are Jackson in Phoenix and Dennis Smith in Dallas. I doubt Smith wins it, but Mavs coach Rick Carlisle said after the draft Smith will start for them next year, which means he gets opportunities and can rack up assists feeding Dirk Nowitzki at the elbow for a year.

Jackson is going to be unleashed in an up-tempo Suns offense where he will be the defender they need on the wing, play with high energy, and get buckets in transition. Winning ROY is as much about fit and opportunity as talent, and Jackson has landed in a good spot.

Paul George-Gordon Hayward-Celtics rumor doesn’t add up

AP Photo/George Frey
3 Comments

Paul George reportedly wants to play with Gordon Hayward. George is also reportedly willing to join his desired team (universally accepted to be the Lakers) by means that don’t guarantee the highest salary.

Could the Celtics – who are pursuing Hayward in free agency – leverage those conditions into getting George?

Adam Kauffman of 98.5 The Sports Hub:

I don’t what George would do, but it’d be a MAJOR financial disadvantage to go this route.

There a couple ways it could happen – George getting extended-and-trade or George getting traded then signing an extension six months later. The latter would allow George to earn more than the former, but even if he pledged to sign an extension, would the Celtics trade for him knowing he’d have six months to change his mind if he doesn’t like Boston as much as anticipated?

There’s a bigger issue, anyway. Both extension routes would leave George earning far less than simply letting his contract expire then signing a new deal, either with his incumbent team or a new one.

Here’s a representation of how much George could earn by:

  • Letting his contract expire and re-signing (green)
  • Letting his contract expire and signing elsewhere (purple)
  • Getting traded and signing an extension six months later (gray)
  • Signing an extend-and-trade (yellow)

image

Expire & re-sign Expire & leave Trade, extend later Extend-and-trade
2018-19 $30.6 million $30.6 million $23,410,750 $23,410,750
2019-20 $33.0 million $32.1 million $25,283,610 $24,581,287
2020-21 $35.5 million $33.7 million $27,156,470 $25,751,825
2021-22 $37.9 million $35.2 million $29,029,330
2022-23 $40.4 million
Total $177.5 million $131.6 million $104,880,158 $73,743,861

Firm numbers are used when it’s just a calculation based on George’s current contract. When necessary to project the 2018-19 salary cap, I rounded.

The Celtics could theoretically renegotiate-and-extend, but that would require cap room that almost certainly wouldn’t exist after signing Hayward.

Simply, it’s next to impossible to see this happening. It’d be too costly to George.