Image (1) bobcats_logo-thumb-250x182-19284.jpg for post 3934

When the process matters: Why Charlotte should trade the No.2 pick

10 Comments

Let’s start off with some instant rebuttal to the premature outcry that headline above is going to muster. First, the basics. The Charlotte Bobcats, in a continuing pattern regarding their awful, horrendous, terrible franchise history, lost the lottery’s No.1 pick despite a 1-in-4 chance to land Anthony Davis. The Bobcats are an awful, awful basketball team that needs help at every position. They have the No.2 pick. There is talk that they could trade the No.2 for more draft picks and/or players. Some people think that’s crazy talk. I’m here to share why it’s not. Now for the immediate outrcy, as kind of a primer:

1. Yes, the Bobcats need a franchise superstar.  The Bobcats need that transcendent player, that guy who they can build around, who they can go to and say “That’s why we we’re winning. We drafted that guy.” The Spurs are a hugely successful franchise and still Gregg Popovich credits Tim Duncan with all of their accomplishments. The Bobcats do not have that guy, have ever had that guy, and desperately need that guy.

2. Unfortunately, this draft is not the one to get it outside the No. 1 spot, from where we sit today. This draft was considered hotcakes a year ago. And a lot of people have talked this up as one of the deeper drafts in years. For what it’s worth, I’m huge on it. I think all the way up to the 22nd pick you can get a franchise impact player. But if you talk to front office people, you’re going to hear a lot about this draft is not that great. It’s been leaked everywhere already. People have soured on this class. Whether it’s Jared Sullinger and Harrison Barnes’ step backwards, or the incomplete nature of the freshmen, there’s just a huge amount of doubt about this draft, but especially in the superstar category.

There’s just not a perception that Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Thomas Robinson, or Andre Drummond are going to be franchise savior players. Kidd-Gilchrist has a jumpshot under heavy debate (don’t let one hot workout cloud the issue), Bradley Beal faces questions about height and his shooting percentage considering he’s, you know, a shooter, Robinson was a footnote at Kansas until this season and doesn’t have exceptional length, and Andre Drummond has more questions about his head than the guy from “12 Monkeys.”

So with that No. 2 pick, there’s strong reason to believe the Bobcats aren’t getting that franchise guy. They need him. But you shouldn’t just take a guy who is likely not that because you need him, just like you should’t take a subpar rebounder who’s tall just because you need a guy who can crash the boards. If he can crash the boards (because he’s tall), but he doesn’t, it doesn’t help you in the end.

3. Yes, they can be very, very wrong on this and look stupid. This is what is terrible about the draft. The smart thing if the Bobcats cannot get a superstar is to trade the pick. But if they trade the pick and the player taken turns out to be a superstar in Portland or Cleveland, or wherever, it just makes you look that much dumber for trading the pick. But you have to operate based on the knowledge base that you have right now. And the knowledge base that you have right now says that the smart move is to trade the pick. Why? Because you have so many other needs.

4. No, the Bobcats will likely not get back equal value from an objective viewpoint. The subjective is what matters here. What I mean by that is that it doesn’t matter if the media torches you because Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Thomas Robinson are better than whoever you get at No. 4 and No. 24 or with a young veteran wing, a first, and a future first. It matters if the players you get from the trade help with your overall plan and process. That process, which is the biggest reason for the Spurs success, is what defines championship organizations. It’s not the market or the money, or (just) the superstar. It’s the way they do business and if it’s consistent and well-thought out with the long-term plan in mind. It’s much like trading a superstar. You’re never going to get equal value for Chris Paul or Dwight Howard. Your objective should be to get things which will set you up in the future. You think the Hornets got equal value at the time for Chris Paul? Absolutely not. But are they in a great position to take a major step forward in the 2013-2014 season? Absolutely.

5. The Bobcats have desperate needs at every position. You know what would be better for when the Bobcats do land their superstar on that great come and get it day? Having a roster in place that doesn’t put him in a position to fail. I’m a huge believer in that concept. You have to put guys in a position to succeed. The Bobcats, honestly, were not in a position to help Anthony Davis succeed. Now that doesn’t mean that had they drafted him, he couldn’t be successful right off the bat and it certainly doesn’t mean he couldn’t be successful in 2-to-4 years. But it’s still not an environment built for him to succeed. The way you do that is by getting a team that is at least passable.

I’ve contended that the Bobcats were this terrible this year on account of a perfect storm of factors. The lockout schedule, some bad breaks in games, injuries, and poor tactical coaching. Honestly, they showed up to play a more focused game than the Wizards did half the time. The Wizards just had more talent. And that’s a big deal here. The Bobcats simply lacked talent at almost every position. Their bright spots were a freak of nature power forward who can’t score and a diminutive point guard who struggles with passing. This is a bad thing. The Bobcats need players. Every position needs an upgrade, and a move backwards in the draft or for young, veteran talents (who are willing to work with the Charlotte franchise — that’s a big one) is going to help them. They’re not going to make any huge leap next season. They’ll still have a chance at Shabazz Muhammad or whoever winds up No. 1 overall. So why not fall back, pick up some talent, get some depth, and set yourself up to not be terrible?

A roster full of young, versatile players on rookie contracts who have shown some life is a much better situation to drop a No. 1 overall pick than a team of upgraded D-Leaguers and malcontents.

Plus, it allows them to get rid of some of that rot. Tyrus Thomas’ attitude? See ya, we got a better power forward so we can trade you for pennies on the dollar just to get rid of your contract. Corey Maggette? Adios, we picked up a shooter wing. Getting multiple positions covered isn’t going to make them a good team. But it’s removing the infected areas so that at least the lifeform isn’t ridden with rot. Doesn’t just adding MKG or Beal help with that? Well, yeah, but you’re also putting them in a position where they have to succeed automatically. You need to allow quality supporting players to be quality supporting players. You build a foundation. You get rid of the things that made you a joke. You stabilize your franchise and instill a winning culture, without the wins.

It’s about process.

I think both MKG, Beal, and Robinson can be fantastic players. I don’t think they can be franchise guys… for the Charlotte Bobcats. The Bobcats need a complete organizational makeover. Moving the pick for multiple assets is the way to go. It doesn’t have to be any deal available, they should wait for the right one. But any deal involving a first rounder this year, an asset either in cap space or player, and a future first should be the model. If the Cats can be smart enough to set themselves up with multiple chances in future lotteries, they can improve now and still have a shot at that franchise player.

I think trading the pick is almost never the answer. But here? I think it’s a must. The Cats need to start the process. And that takes more than one player, if that player is not Anthony Davis.

Playoff Preview: Four questions to answer about Hawks vs. Cavaliers

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 01:  LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers looks to drive against Thabo Sefolosha #25 of the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena on April 1, 2016 in Atlanta, Georgia.  NOTE TO USER User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Leave a comment

Last season this big playoff showdown — the top two seeds in the East — turned into a rout as Cleveland swept Atlanta out of the playoffs. This time around both teams are healthier: The Cavaliers have Kevin Love and a healthy Kyrie Irving; the Hawks have Thabo Sefolosha back, Kyle Korver (knocked out of the series in Game 2) and a healthy Paul Millsap. Here are three things to keep an eye on through this series, followed by a prediction.

1) Can Atlanta slow LeBron James? The key to the Hawks’ chances in this series is their defense, which ranked second in the NBA over the course of the season and was Spurs-like after the All-Star break. Atlanta held Boston to 38 percent shooting for that five-game series. However, when the Hawks and Cavs met this regular season LeBron averaged 27.3 points and shot 58 percent. Atlanta did not have an answer for him. Thabo Sefolosha (who missed this playoff series last year, thank you NYPD) will draw time on him, as will Kent Bazemore and Paul Millsap. None of them are a great matchup. The Hawks need to limit LeBron’s transition opportunities, and they need to force him to be a jump shooter — he got 14 points per game in the paint against Detroit, Atlanta has to limit that. Which is much easier said than done. And sometimes he just nails the jumper anyway (although he did struggle with it vs. Detroit). LeBron is going to get his; Atlanta has to at least make him work for it and be less efficient.

2) Who wins the Kyrie Irving vs. Jeff Teague point guard matchup? As good as that LeBron guy was, Irving was the Cavaliers best player and the guy knocking down key shots in the first round against Detroit. Irving was hot from deep in the first round, hitting 16-of -34 from three. However, Irving can over-dribble and not move the ball at times, which is death against the Hawks defense. The Cavs need to beat Atlanta with passing. Teague needs to defend Irving with energy, but he must score as well and make Irving work on the defensive end. Teague led the Hawks with 16.5 points per game against Boston, and in the Hawks three games against Cleveland this season averaged 20.7 points and 7.3 assists. For the Hawks to have any chance Teague has to play this matchup to a standstill.

3) Can Atlanta keep Cleveland off the offensive glass? Despite the considerable rebounding prowess of Millsap, the Hawks were the sixth worst defensive rebounding team in the league this season. Cleveland was a top 10 offensive rebounding team this season, and their starting lineup with Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love can generate a lot of second chance looks. Which is something the Hawks simply cannot afford this series — it’s tough enough to defend the Cavaliers without giving them second chances. In those regular season matchups, the Hawks struggled with this, which is part of the reason the Cavaliers swept all three meetings.

4) Might this be Kevin Love’s breakout series? This is a good matchup for Love, despite the Hawks having some good individual defenders. Atlanta often will switch pick-and-rolls, which should allow Love to either pop out for a clean look at a jumper, or head to the post and overwhelm a smaller defender. Love and Irving in the pick-and-roll (with LeBron still hanging out on the court as a distraction) could be challenging for Atlanta to stop. However, the real key for Love is that he’s going to have to defend the All-Star Millsap — if Love can do a solid job there the Cavaliers odds of winning go way up.

Prediction: Cavaliers in five. These are not going to be easy games for Cleveland, you’re far more likely to see six games in this series rather than another sweep. But Atlanta needs everything to go perfectly in this series to win, and the Cavaliers have a focused LeBron James who is not going to let that happen.

Report: Latest Kings’ coaching interview? David Blatt.

PHOENIX, AZ - DECEMBER 28:  Head coach David Blatt of the Cleveland Cavaliers looks on during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on December 28, 2015 in Phoenix, Arizona.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Getty Images
Leave a comment

For those of you keeping tabs, so far the Sacramento Kings coaching search has included at least contact and sometimes interviews with Mark Jackson, Luke Walton, Nate McMillan, Vinny Del Negro, Mike Woodson, Sam Mitchell, Kevin McHale, and Patrick Ewing. And that’s the ones we know about.

Now one more name gets added to the list: David Blatt. From Marc Stein of ESPN:

Sources told ESPN.com that Blatt will become the latest in a string of recent head coaches to interview for the post, with the Kings determined to commission a broad search in their hunt for George Karl’s replacement.

Blatt has also interviewed for the New York Knicks job and is rumored to be still in consideration, although Blatt does not meet Phil Jackson’s requirements of having a relationship with Jackson or wanting to run the triangle.

The top priority for whoever becomes the Kings next coach is to establish a strong relationship with DeMarcus Cousins, the team’s top 10 NBA talent but also a mercurial person. Cousins did not want George Karl to be hired as coach, owner Vivek Ranadive did that anyway (having already let go of Cousins’ favorite Mike Malone), then when Karl talked about “no player being untradable” and pushing that narrative the relationship between coach and star was dead. The team never recovered.

The next coach has to get Cousins on his side. Is Blatt a guy who can do that? In Cleveland, he came in with an “I won a lot in Europe you must respect me” attitude — rather than being humble and trying to earn that respect, ala Steve Kerr in Golden State — and LeBron James and the rest of the Cavaliers never bought in. Blatt never had that locker room. Can Blatt change? Will he have learned from that mistake?

The Kings are wisely doing a broad and thorough coaching search, so it may be a while before we find out if Vlade Divac and the Sacramento brain trust think Blatt has learned those hard lessons.

Report: Pacers’ coach Frank Vogel’s contract up, no talks yet about extension

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 26:  Head Coach Frank Vogel of the Indiana Pacers shouts to an official in the first half of Game Five of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against the Toronto Raptors during the 2016 NBA Playoffs at the Air Canada Centre on April 26, 2016 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)
Getty Images
2 Comments

Frank Vogel is one of the 10 best coaches in the NBA. The Indiana Pacers are better with him in the big chair.

But is he going to be back next season?

Probably, only because it’s hard to imagine otherwise, but the door has been opened reports Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical at Yahoo Sports.

Are the Pacers’ serious? Team president Larry Bird wouldn’t answer the question, but neither did he throw water on the rumor to put the flames out.

Vogel wouldn’t need to worry about employment, he would instantly jump to near the top of every coaching search list out there (and the ones that will come up next year).

The question is, why would the Pacers do this? Can you pick apart is end-of-game management in Game 4, and question his rotations? Sure. Did he make a mistake with his timeout call late in Game 7? Probably. He’s not perfect.

However, this is a team whose second and third best players are Monta Ellis and George Hill, and they have a thin bench — Vogel did more with less he was given by Larry Bird than just about any coach could have. This team has limitations and he has done a fantastic job putting players in positions where they could succeed.

I imagine in a couple of weeks the Pacers will announce a new deal with Vogel. But the door is now open to change.

Raptors hang on through rough finish to beat Pacers 89-84, advance to second round

1 Comment

To paraphrase the great Rasheed Wallace: “Both teams played hard. Not well, but both teams played hard.”

Game 7s can be filled with tight play and poor decisions, and the final few minutes of this Game 7 between the Raptors and Pacers certainly saw that. It saw the Raptors score just 11 fourth quarter points — and saw the referees swallow their whistles on a clear foul that would have given the Pacers a better chance at a win — but none of that matters to a Toronto fan base starved for a playoff series win.

They don’t care about style points, just give them the “W.” The Raptors and their fans can finally exhale.

Toronto had a 16-point lead, tried desperately to run out the clock in the final five minutes, and in doing so opened the door again for Indiana and made it tight at the end, but Toronto hung on for an 89-84 win.

Toronto wins the series and now advances on to the second round for the first time since the Vince Carter era. The Raptors will face the Heat starting this Tuesday at home in Toronto.

“I think everybody wrote the Raptors off and gave us up for dead,” Toronto coach Dwane Casey said after the win. “But that locker room is full of fighters and scrappers and guys that are really getting into it now.”

Casey is wrong in the micro — I certainly don’t remember any “Toronto can’t win Game 7 at home” stories in the press — but right in the macro that his team carried a heavy “they can’t get out of the first round” burden all season, a reputation that almost was an anchor for them in the closing minutes of this game.

But they survived. And advanced.

Paul George was the best player on the floor and finished the game with 26 points, but it was the play he didn’t make (and the foul the Raptors got away with on that play) that will be the talk of Game 7.

Toronto had a small lead most of the game, but a couple of runs (one in the third quarter, another early in the fourth) had stretched it out to 16. Leading the way was DeMar DeRozan, who wasn’t efficient (10-of-32 shooting) but did put up 30 points and was attacking hard. The other key in this game for the Raptors was on the glass where they grabbed the offensive rebound on 35 percent of their missed shots, which led to 17 second-chance points on the night.

But everyone knew Toronto was not going to just be able to coast in for the win. It was going to be hard.

With five minutes left Toronto started to try to run out the clock — Shaquille O’Neal called it “prevent offense” — and the team wouldn’t even really start its attack until there were five seconds or so on the clock. The result was, predictably enough, difficult and contested shots. Meanwhile, the Pacers kept hitting shots and went on a 15-2 run, with Solomon Hill throwing down a huge dunk and Monta Ellis hitting a three that made it a three-point game with 2:36 left.

Then Kyle Lowry answered with a driving layup that had the Raptors up 87-82 with 2:10 left. That would be the last bucket of the game.

Indiana had its chances, but both Ellis and George had turnovers.

George had a chance with the team down 5 and :26 seconds left to go for a quick two and then play the foul game, but as he drove and got cut off he went up and rather than bank in a 10-footer he threw a lot to Ian Mahinmi — and DeRozan shoved Mahinmi while the big man was in the air, causing the pass to go sailing over Mahinmi’s head. It was a clear foul by DeRozan that was not called — and George should have just shot the ball there — but with that the Pacers chances few away as well.

It wasn’t pretty for the Raptors. They do not care. Their loyal and long-suffering fans were rewarded with a first round win, that monkey is off their backs.

But they are going to have to play a lot better and a lot looser against a veteran Miami team if the Raptors want to make the franchise’s first-ever conference finals.