Jimmer Fredette , Kurt Thomas, Nolan Smith

It’s OK if there’s no mania behind Jimmer


“The first time he didn’t play [on Feb. 2 against Portland], people were calling the paper and pitching their theories,” said Jason Jones, the Kings’ beat writer for The Sacramento Bee. “People don’t want to believe that he might not be ready to play. They want to believe Keith has it in for him.”

The salty swell of support peaked on Feb. 21, when Fredette’s brother and roommate, T.J., saw Jimmer glued to the bench for 48 minutes in a game at Miami and tweeted, “Can we please get rid of this interim coach who should be an assistant at best and bring in a real head coach.” Jimmer quickly apologized on behalf of his brother, who subsequently deleted the tweet and also issued an apology. Smart had a candid moment of his own on March 8, defending his use of Fredette while saying, “If everybody in the world would just leave me alone and let me develop this kid, he’s going to be OK.”

via Jimmer Fredette being brough along slowly by Sacramento Kings – Sam Amick – SI.com.

And that last part is kind of relevant. “OK.”

Now, I’m sure if you were to press Keith Smart he’d talk about Jimmer Fredette being “pretty good” or “great” eventually. But right now? Right now the goal is just OK. And for some reason, people have struggled to accept this. There’s a lingering sense that the player Fredette was in college must be in there, that he has to be waiting to spring forth with magical unicorn bombs from 50 feet. There’s just no way that the player the JimmerManiacs saw tearing it up in the NCAA tournament last year at BYU isn’t the same. Because it’s just basketball, right?

Well, no, not really.

Here’s the thing, the article above is entirely written from the perspective of giving Jimmer time to evolve and improve. And it’s a worthwhile idea. I”m not here to bury a rookie. Guys develop, improve, and regress at very different intervals in the NBA and for the most part, it’s very difficult to predict. Fredette could have a monster sophomore year, and then disappear. There are trends, to be sure. There are probabilities. But to say that players will never change, never improve, that they are who they are is to ignore a world of players like Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, and others who progressed not from the start but who began their careers as one thing and then dramatically shifted a few years in. Fredette can have that kind of career. He’s a good enough… uh… shooter or player, or something to be able to convert those skills.

However, there’s something we’re going to need to get past. Fredette is not stuck on the bench. He’s not being held back. He’s just not very good right now. And Thomas has been excellent. He’s earned is playing time. And all the things we were concerned about with Fredette? They’ve turned out to be true.

Turns out that in the flow of an NBA game, jacking up 45 footers is not a sustainable offensive strategy. It turns out that creating your own shot against players who are twice as fast, long, athletic, and strong as you are is a bit of a trick. And most of all, it turns out that all the concerns about Fredette’s defense weren’t mythical. The kid can’t stick. He should not be on the floor right now and Keith Smart isn’t responsible for making sure Jimmer works out. He’s supposed to make the garbage salad of the Kings turn into a pizza with DMC pepperoni and Thornton sauce. (In this scenario Tyreke Evans is pineapple. The people that like it love it and always want it on, the people that don’t think it’s weird it’s on the pizza.)

Smart isn’t the GM who elected to draft a player who clearly didn’t fit with their roster, nor had the pedigree to compete at the NBA level at the position he was drafted at. Smart wasn’t the coach to weigh in on that decision. This is Smart being stuck with management’s mistake. Again, it doesn’t meant that Fredette can’t work out and be amazing and validate Geoff Petrie and everything. But for right now, it’s not working out, and Smart’s not beholden to making that work. He’s got the Kings playing better with Thomas, with Thornton, most importantly with DMC, you know the players with actual ability at this level.

And this isn’t actually unexpected. Neil Paine at Basketball Prospectus wrote about college All-Americans and the NBA. The trend over the past thirty years? It’s getting harder and harder for amateur stars to convert to pro icons.

The more common outcome for an All-American in today’s game is to be an ordinary starter or even a non-starting rotation regular (33% have met this fate so far). There’s still plenty of time for regulars like Evan Turner and Greivis Vasquez to become starters, and for starters like John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins to become All-Stars (in fact, Cousins arguably should have been one this season). But those are the exceptions–in reality, the book is likely already written on most of the post-age-limit prospects produced at college basketball’s highest level, and it’s not filled with anywhere near as many stars as in days gone by, despite the rule forcing elite high school talent to spend a year on campus.

via Basketball Prospectus | Disappearing Act.

There’s hope for Fredette, though.

J.J. Redick was a similar player in college, a three-point sharpshooter, the best in Duke’s history. When he came to the Magic, he got no playing time. None. And he was frustrated, essentially, for two seasons. Stan Van Gundy made it abundantly clear to Redick. Learn how to play defense at this level, you can play. He knew Redick could shoot, he needed him to defend. So Redick hit the weight room, built up his frame, kept his shooter’s touch, and wound up being a huge part of the Magic’s run to he Finals in 2009. Had Orlando not matched his offer from Chicago two years ago, he’d be a better version of Kyle Korver. That’s what Fredette needs to do. Accept it’s going to be rough, accept that he’s not ready, keep bucking to get there and do what is necessary.

In the meantime? You can hope Fredette will work out. You can even have faith that he’ll become the player we all want him to be, the same one who went gonzo in the tournament. But you can’t deny the reality that he’s not ready to play and is a detriment to his team when he’s on the floor right now. It’s not just about patience. It’s about reality and how we deal with it.

PBT NBA Power Rankings: Thunder, Pacers climb into Top five

Taj Gibson, George Hill, Paul George, Solomon Hill
Leave a comment

Sure the top three in the chart remained the same, while the Thunder and Pacers round out an interesting Top 5. However, the real drama is at the bottom — can the Sixers get their first win Tuesday when they face the Lakers?

source:  1. Warriors (18-0, last week No. 1). This week, Draymond Green became the first Warrior with back-to-back triple doubles since Wilt Chamberlain — Jerry West is right, in this system Draymond is a top 10 player. No Harrison Barnes for at least this week (sprained ankle) and the Warriors head out on a seven-game road trip Monday. Will that mean a loss?

source:  2. Spurs (14-3, LW 2). Tim Duncan is doing exactly what you hope an elite, aging player does — use fewer shots but use them efficiently. The Spurs don’t have great individual shot creators, but their commitment to ball movement and running action through Duncan or LaMarcus Aldridge at the elbow (both great passers and smart players) makes up for it, and they have the eighth best offense in the NBA.

source:  3. Cavaliers (13-4, LW 3). Cleveland is still the top team in the East, but LeBron James looks at those two teams above them in these power rankings and knows Cleveland isn’t near that level of execution. (Especially on defense in the first half of games, they coast.) So he called a team meeting after a loss to Toronto. He’s right, but getting Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert back in the next couple months will help.

source:  4. Thunder (11-6 LW 5). Winners of four in a row, plus Kevin Durant is back — and he is knocking down threes at a 47.1 percent rate last season. On the road at Atlanta and Miami will test that win streak this week.

source:  5. Pacers (11-5, LW 9). They are outscoring teams by 11.9 per 100 possessions their last 10 games. Frank Vogel on Indy’s play: “We’ve had a good, healthy belief in this plan all year. We didn’t know how long it was going to take before it got going, and we knew it had the potential to catch fire. We’ve gotten a little bit hot of late, but we haven’t really accomplished anything yet.”

source:  6. Heat (10-5, LW 4). They still have the second best defense in the NBA this season (just ask the Knicks after last week) but that will be seriously tested this week hosting the Thunder and Cavaliers back-to-back.

source:  7. Raptors (11-7, LW 7). They had won four in a row, including over the Clippers and Cavaliers, until the Suns got them on Sunday.That’s a testament to Kyle Lowry and the offense, because with Jonas Valanciunas out the defense has struggled, and that will cost them at some point.

source:  8. Mavericks (10-7, LW 6). The Mavericks have a team true shooting percentage of 55 percent in their past 10 games, eighth best in the NBA. That is a testament to coach Rick Carlisle, because outside Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams this team is struggling to space the floor with their shot.

source:  9. Bulls (9-5, LW 8). Before the season the thought was Fred Holberg would improve the Bulls’ offense but would they still defend enough for him. A month into the season Chicago has the sixth-ranked defense but the 26th ranked offense. Tom Thibodeau was an offensive genius?

source:  10. Hawks (11-8, LW 10). They went 2-2 last week but the wins were quality ones — against Boston and Memphis. They are doing it with a top 10 offense on the season and great play from Paul Millsap, but things have flattened out some the past few weeks.

source:  11. Hornets (10-7, LW 16). They have outscored their opponents by 6.3 points per 100 their last 10 games, going 7-3. In the past this team has struggled with Al Jefferson out, but they picked up wins last week thanks to Frank Kaminsky and Tyler Zeller stepping up. Big tests with Warriors and Bulls this week.

source:  12. Celtics (9-8, LW 11). Boston is forcing turnovers on 19.2 percent of opponent possessions, which is an insane rate. They will try to keep that going when they head to Mexico City for a game there this week against the Kings.

source:  13. Grizzlies (10-8, LW 19). Must follow NBA writer/podcaster Nate Duncan had an interesting idea: Is it time to consider Zach Randolph going to the bench and playing the five behind Marc Gasol, then Memphis goes smaller with a little more shooting at the four? Not a move they can make mid-season easily (they need the four who can shoot better), but something to watch going forward.

source:  14. Jazz (8-7, LW 18). They have five of their next six at home after a road-heavy start to the season (although the Warriors coming to town isn’t really comforting). The defense is still top 10 but the offense has shown signs of life in recent weeks, which is a welcome change.

source:  15. Clippers (9-8, LW 17). The last couple games this team has looked more like its old self, like it’s breaking out of its doldrums, like Sunday beating Minnesota. When Pacers coach Frank Vogel was asked about so many teams hanging around .500 in the NBA and who would break out, he quickly pointed to the Clippers.

source:  16. Magic (9-8, LW 20). Scott Skiles has finally thrown in the towel on the Elfrid Payton/Victor Oladipo pairing (Oladipo is coming off the bench), which he had to do – the team is -12.9 points per 100 possessions when they are on the court together. The Magic have won three straight.

<source:  17. Suns (8-9, LW 15). Their defense has struggled, especially with Tyson Chandler out, but they have the fourth best offense in the NBA in the last 10 games, scoring 106.5 points per 100 possessions. Chandler used to be an offensive boost (because of his solid picks and good hands on the roll) but he hasn’t been this season in Phoenix.

source:  18. Timberwolves (8-9,LW 21). I’ll admit that I’m an not the biggest Zach LaVine fan, particularly when he is at the point, but for all his flaws it’s better to give him minutes than Kevin Martin when he can’t shoot (and he is shooting 27.6 percent overall and 23.8 percent from three his last 10 games).

source:  19. Pistons (8-9, LW 14). Andre Drummond is still putting up beasty numbers, but Stan Van Gundy called out his defensive effort in the Pistons’ losses this past week. They have a four-game homestead coming up, with all the teams below .500.

source:  20. Knicks (8-10, LW 12). Losing four in a row hasn’t cooled Kristaps Porzingis fever much in NYC. As will happen in Phil Jackson’s version of the triangle, the Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA over the past 10 games, and this team could use a few easy transition buckets.

source:  21. Wizards (6-8, LW 13). They went 0-4 against other teams in the second tier of the East last week. Their biggest problem is a bottom 10 defense, but second is John Wall turning the ball over on more than one-in-five possessions he ends, the highest rate of his career. Marcin Gortat is not having fun anymore.

source:  22. Trail Blazers (7-10, LW 24). It remains the Damian Lillard show — the Blazers’ offense is 14.1 points per 100 possessions better when he is on the court. He can reliably create shots for himself and others, and he is the only one (C.J. McCollum helps but it’s not the same).

source:  23. Rockets (6-10, LW 26). The coaching change didn’t inspire them to play better transition defense, it’s still a mess. Their wins last week — the Sixers by two, the Knicks without Carmelo Anthony in OT — did not impress. Patrick Beverly back in the starting lineup does help.

source:  24. Bucks (6-11, LW 22). The good news is Jabari Parker looks better every day and has been throwing down some huge dunks (just ask Kevin Love). The bad news is John Henson seems to have taken a huge step back this season — the Bucks are -16 points per 100 possessions when he is on the court.

source:  25. Kings (6-12, LW 25). The kings got one win with DeMarcus Cousins out, but that just makes them 1-7. His absence is part of the reason George Karl continues to jerk the lineups around. At least Rajon Rondo is putting up numbers.

source:  26. Pelicans (4-13, LW 27). The Pelicans are playing better of late and Ish Smith’s play at the point guard spot gets a lot of credit for it. He’s not the long-term answer the Pelicans, he’s just less of a disaster than the guys who have been in that spot before this season.

source:  27. Nuggets (6-11, LW 23). Losers of six in a row and things don’t get easier as they head out on the road for their next five. This might be the part of the season where the Nuggets start to really fall back.

source:  28. Nets (4-13, LW 28). They have played hard and hung around in games, then picked up a win against Detroit. But can they get one “one the road” Friday in Manhattan against the Knicks (who have struggled of late)?

source:  29. Lakers (2-14, LW 29). Kobe Bryant didn’t want a Derek Jeter-style farewell tour, but he’s about to get one anyway starting in Philly Tuesday. One thing to keep in mind during the tour: the Lakers have the second-worst record in the NBA, they only get to keep their pick come June if it’s in the top three.

source:  30. 76ers (0-18, LW 30). While they have yet to get a win the effort has been there and teams have had to come from behind to beat them as Memphis did Sunday (Philly just doesn’t have the talent once other teams crank it up). Does the losing streak end Tuesday when they host he Lakers?

Magic end NBA’s longest winning-record drought

Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris
Leave a comment

The Magic beat the Celtics yesterday, lifting Orlando’s record to 9-8.

A minor accomplishment in the grand scheme? Yes.

A big deal for the Magic? Absolutely.

Orlando hadn’t had a winning record in more than two years – the longest active period for an NBA team to be .500 or worse.

The Magic’s last winning record was 3-2 in 2013, when Jameer Nelson, Arron Afflalo and Jason Maxiell were starting. They followed that Nov. 6, 2013 win over the Clippers with an off day then dropped three straight. Orlando hadn’t seen a winning record since.

Until now.

A three-game winning streak since Scott Skiles changed his lineup has the Magic tied for eighth in the East. They can finally experience the small bit of optimism and confidence that comes with a winning record. It’s not much, but it’s more than they could have said for years.

To put the drought into perspective, here’s how many days each team had gone through Saturday since its last winning record. If you don’t already know the drill, keep scrolling – and scrolling and scrolling – for Orlando.

magic winning record

Watch Kobe Bryant’s entire retirement-announcement press conference (video)

Leave a comment

Kobe Bryant reflected, told stories and showed his emotions.

For nearly 25 minutes, the Lakers star talked about his pending retirement. It was pretty cool.