So far this season, the San Antonio Spurs are 12.4 points per 48 minutes better with Manu Ginobili on the court than off it.
He is going to be off it now for the next five or six weeks after fracturing a bone in his left hand — his shooting hand.
Ginobili is the team’s leading scorer at 17.4 points per game and was the team’s most efficient scorer shooting 59.2 percent overall and 51.9 percent from three. He was the guy creating a lot of the offense for his teammates. His PER of 31.5 was MVP level (second best in the league this young season behind only LeBron James).
The only good news for San Antonio is that it is early in the season — he should be back at full strength in the playoffs. Remember he tried to play through a fractured elbow last season in the playoffs and the Spurs were swept by Memphis. He had a broken nose in the playoffs the year before that, he missed the playoffs in 2009 due to stress fracture in his ankle, and in 2008 he tried to play through an ankle injury but wasn’t near himself. In each of those years the Spurs were eliminated earlier than expected.
The hard part may be making the playoffs at all. As Zach Lowe notes at Sports Illustrated, the Spurs are just entering a tough part of their schedule and in a stacked Western Conference they need to be close to .500 through this stretch.
He could miss as many as six weeks, and if that’s the case, Ginobili’s absence could stretch into San Antonio’s nine-game rodeo road trip in February. As is, the Spurs have 17 games over the next 27 days, a stretch that includes six back-to-backs; road games at Memphis, Oklahoma City, Miami, Orlando, Houston and Dallas; and a brutal six-games-in-eight days set that starts Wednesday against Golden State. The Spurs have played just one back-to-back so far, and they lost the second game to Houston so badly that coach Gregg Popovich threw in the towel early and sat Tim Duncan the entire second half.
San Antonio is not going to be able to make up for all the production lost with Ginobili out, the challenge is making up enough, points out Timothy Varner at the fantastic Spurs blog 48minutesofhell.com.
In the past, the Spurs have always dealt with an injury to one of their core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Ginobili by getting a burst of great production from one or both of the others. I’m not sure they can do that this season. There is great risk in demanding too much of Duncan or Parker in the early weeks of this season’s condensed schedule. Duncan, in particular, would not withstand heavy minutes on short rest. This is not to say Duncan is an automatic injury—it’s more of a comment about his ability to play well on limited rest and what it would mean for his body in advance of the postseason.
The Spurs need DeJaun Blair and other role players to step up, they need to find a way to tread water and stay in the playoff hunt without Ginobili around. With him healthy in the playoffs they are a threat, but they have to get there first.