PBT’s NBA season predictions: LeBron James gets his ring

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Before Miami Heat fans get excited about this, remember that I suck at making predictions.

But thanks to my never-exhausted capacity for self-embarrassment, I’m giving you my predictions for the coming season (scroll down to see Brett from PBT’s calls for this season). I think that the condensed schedule — and condensed playoff schedule — benefits teams with younger legs, and that factors in. Here we go.

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. San Antonio Spurs
5. Memphis Grizzlies
6. Portland Trail Blazers
7. Los Angeles Clippers
8. Houston Rockets

I think Denver is in the mix for one of those last spots as well and I may have made a mistake putting Houston in and the Nuggets out. It’s close. No, the Clippers are not very high (I still need to see them defend consistently), but I think they find themselves mid-season and become the team nobody wants to play come the playoffs. I think Memphis takes steps forward but still has a ways to go, and that Dallas will be great in the regular season but is really going to miss Tyson Chandler come the second round of the playoffs. As for the Lakers, I don’t see the steep drop off many do. There are questions of depth, but they still have Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum up front, Kobe Bryant is healthy and they will play more physically on defense.

Western Conference finals: Los Angles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder.

Eastern Conference

1. Miami Heat
2. Chicago Bulls
3. New York Knicks
4. Boston Celtics
5. Indiana Pacers
6. Atlanta Hawks
7. Orlando Magic
8. Milwaukee Bucks

I think the top six are pretty much locks (even if the order shifts a little, and yes the Pacers with David West are in there), but picking the bottom two is hard. Orlando is in if they hold on to Dwight Howard most of the season (they won 52 games last year) and I think the Bucks will be better this year. But this leaves Philly on the outside looking in and that is hard. Plus I think Washington is going to be a lot better, they may still just miss out. Same with the Nets.

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls. (That seems the safe pick, but they were the two best teams last year and they got better. The Knicks will improve but their defense still will not be good enough. The Celtics would need a Mavericks-like run to make it.)

NBA finals: Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder.

NBA champion: Miami Heat.

The Heat are still lacking a big man in the paint and that could be their undoing if they have to face a team that gets a lot of points from their bigs, but I’m not sure I see that on their path to the ring.

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Brett Pollakoff from PBT also gave us his predictions:

The compressed, 66-game schedule the NBA has forced upon teams due to the lockout will have a bigger effect on the season’s ultimate result than any of the big free agent signings. Tyson Chandler to the Knicks is sure to help, and Chris Paul to the Clippers will fill the highlight reels with ridiculousness. But the teams loaded with talent that didn’t undergo wholesale personnel changes — and aren’t too veteran-laden to worry about breaking down over the course of the season — are the ones likely to be there at the end.

Western Conference Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat and New York Knicks

NBA Finals: Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA Champion: Miami Heat

PBT Extra: What coaches are on hot seat? Alvin Gentry at front of list.

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This season, for the first time in 46 years, no NBA coach will be fired during the season (nobody is getting canned at this point).

However, once the off-season starts, there will be a few changes.

Alvin Gentry in New Orleans and Fred Hoiberg in Chicago are the names most mentioned, but there will be an unexpected firing somewhere around the league. Some GMs are on the hot seat also (Rob Hennigan in Orlando leads that parade).

I get into all of it in this latest PBT Extra.

Raptors’ Serge Ibaka, Bulls’ Robin Lopez each suspended one game for thrown punches

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It was obvious this was coming. Get in a shoving match “fight” in the NBA and you get a fine. However, actually throw punches and…

Toronto’s Serge Ibaka and Chicago’s Robin Lopez each have been suspended for one game by the NBA “for throwing punches at one another during an altercation,” the league announced. What that works out to is a $120,715 hit for Lopez and a $111,364 ding for Ibaka.

Also, Raptors assistant coach Jamaal Magloire earned a $15,000 fine shoving the Bulls Nikola Mirotic and “acting as other than a peacemaker as part of the same altercation.”

This all came out of what seemed a rather innocuous play. Ibaka and Lopez were battling for rebounding positioning, it went on for a second after the ball went through the hoop, Ibaka caught Lopez with a little chicken wing elbow in the back, Lopez spun, and, boy, that escalated quickly. Lopez’s punch missed, while Ibaka’s caught Lopez in the hair more than the body.

Both men got technicals and were ejected.

Report: Sixers Joel Embiid “very likely” to undergo off-season surgery on knee

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When the Philadelphia 76ers formally announced they were shutting down Joel Embiid for the season, the team’s chief medical director Dr. Jonathan Glashow said:

“The assessment of Monday’s follow-up MRI of Joel Embiid’s left knee appears to reveal that the area affected by the bone bruise has improved significantly, while the previously identified meniscus tear appears more pronounced in this most recent scan.”

That meniscus may require off-season surgery, reports Marc Stein of ESPN.

As described, this would be a minor surgery that likely has a 4-6 week recovery period. That said, you know the Sixers will bring him along slowly after this. Also, that’s just time Embiid is not on a practice court or in a pick-up game with Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, and the rest of the team’s young core. That’s the time the foundations of chemistry on a team are built.

Embiid averaged 20.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per game despite a minutes restriction all season. He was incredibly efficient in getting his numbers — he had an All-Star level PER of 24.2 — and when he was on the court the Sixers outscored their opponents by 3 points per 100 possessions. He’s still likely a top three finisher in Rookie of the Year balloting despite playing in just 31 games.

Hopefully getting his knee cleaned up now means Embiid will be able to play in more games next season.

Report: Kevin Durant’s recovery going well, could return before end of season

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Back on Feb. 28, the Warriors’ leading scorer Kevin Durant suffered a grade 2 MCL sprain and a tibial bone bruise, an injury that happened when Zaza Pachulia fell into his knee. They planned to evaluate him at the end of the month, but this injury is often a 6-8 week issue, which would have him back around the start of the playoffs or in the first round.

The Warriors are optimistic it will be earlier than that, probably by the end of the season, reports Marc Stein and Chris Haynes of ESPN.

The Golden State Warriors aren’t scheduled to formally update the status of Kevin Durant’s left knee until next week, but there is cautious optimism within the organization that Durant — should he maintain his current recovery arc — will indeed be able to return to the court before the end of the regular season, according to league sources.

While noting that Durant is roughly at the halfway stage of his recovery journey, sources told ESPN.com that the Warriors are encouraged by the progress Durant has made in the 22 days since he suffered a sprained MCL and tibial bone bruise in his left knee on Feb. 28.

Durant was getting in some on-court work before the Warriors took on the Mavericks Tuesday.

The Warriors lost Durant at the start of their toughest schedule stretch of the season, and they stumbled some through that. However, after getting home (and playing some lesser teams in that stretch) the Warriors have gotten right, Stephen Curry is shooting well again, Matt Barnes and Patrick McCaw are playing well enough, and the Warriors have won five in a row. They are in the driver’s seat to be the No. 1 seed in the West (the biggest challenge to that is a road back-to-back in Houston and San Antonio next week, get a split there and the Warriors become tough to catch).

Between the end of the season and an easy first round — neither Denver nor Portland play enough good defense to slow the Warriors — the Warriors will have time to blend Durant back into the fold. If the Warriors can find their stride again with him, they are the favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.