Miami Heat Media Day

PBT’s NBA season predictions: LeBron James gets his ring

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Before Miami Heat fans get excited about this, remember that I suck at making predictions.

But thanks to my never-exhausted capacity for self-embarrassment, I’m giving you my predictions for the coming season (scroll down to see Brett from PBT’s calls for this season). I think that the condensed schedule — and condensed playoff schedule — benefits teams with younger legs, and that factors in. Here we go.

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. San Antonio Spurs
5. Memphis Grizzlies
6. Portland Trail Blazers
7. Los Angeles Clippers
8. Houston Rockets

I think Denver is in the mix for one of those last spots as well and I may have made a mistake putting Houston in and the Nuggets out. It’s close. No, the Clippers are not very high (I still need to see them defend consistently), but I think they find themselves mid-season and become the team nobody wants to play come the playoffs. I think Memphis takes steps forward but still has a ways to go, and that Dallas will be great in the regular season but is really going to miss Tyson Chandler come the second round of the playoffs. As for the Lakers, I don’t see the steep drop off many do. There are questions of depth, but they still have Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum up front, Kobe Bryant is healthy and they will play more physically on defense.

Western Conference finals: Los Angles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder.

Eastern Conference

1. Miami Heat
2. Chicago Bulls
3. New York Knicks
4. Boston Celtics
5. Indiana Pacers
6. Atlanta Hawks
7. Orlando Magic
8. Milwaukee Bucks

I think the top six are pretty much locks (even if the order shifts a little, and yes the Pacers with David West are in there), but picking the bottom two is hard. Orlando is in if they hold on to Dwight Howard most of the season (they won 52 games last year) and I think the Bucks will be better this year. But this leaves Philly on the outside looking in and that is hard. Plus I think Washington is going to be a lot better, they may still just miss out. Same with the Nets.

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls. (That seems the safe pick, but they were the two best teams last year and they got better. The Knicks will improve but their defense still will not be good enough. The Celtics would need a Mavericks-like run to make it.)

NBA finals: Miami Heat vs. Oklahoma City Thunder.

NBA champion: Miami Heat.

The Heat are still lacking a big man in the paint and that could be their undoing if they have to face a team that gets a lot of points from their bigs, but I’m not sure I see that on their path to the ring.

••••••••••

Brett Pollakoff from PBT also gave us his predictions:

The compressed, 66-game schedule the NBA has forced upon teams due to the lockout will have a bigger effect on the season’s ultimate result than any of the big free agent signings. Tyson Chandler to the Knicks is sure to help, and Chris Paul to the Clippers will fill the highlight reels with ridiculousness. But the teams loaded with talent that didn’t undergo wholesale personnel changes — and aren’t too veteran-laden to worry about breaking down over the course of the season — are the ones likely to be there at the end.

Western Conference Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks

Eastern Conference Finals: Miami Heat and New York Knicks

NBA Finals: Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA Champion: Miami Heat

Pelicans sign D-League Rookie of the Year Quinn Cook

Chicago Bulls v Cleveland Cavaliers
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With Jrue Holiday away from the team and Tyreke Evans and Quincy Pondexter both hurt, the Pelicans need help on the perimeter.

The latest candidate to provide it: Quinn Cook.

Pelicans release:

The New Orleans Pelicans today announced that the team has signed free agent guard Quinn Cook.

Cook went undrafted last year after a four-year career at Duke then went to the D-League, where he won Rookie of the Year, went to the All-Star game and made all-league third team. It was an encouraging start to his pro career.

Despite having 15 players ( the regular-season roster limit) with guaranteed salaries, the Pelicans keep attracting players – including Lance Stephenson – to training camp on unguaranteed or barely guaranteed deals. I wonder whether New Orleans has assured anyone it would open a roster spot somehow. If so, Cook has a real chance to claim it.

Jrue Holiday’s wife gives birth to healthy daughter, according to Anthony Davis

NEW ORLEANS, LA - OCTOBER 31:  Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans handles the ball during a game against the Golden State Warriors at the Smoothie King Center on October 31, 2015 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement.  (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
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Jrue Holiday took a leave of absence from the Pelicans to be with his wife, who was pregnant and had a brain tumor.

Good news: Lauren Holiday gave birth, according to Anthony Davis.

Davis, via Justin Verrier of ESPN:

“She had a baby girl, so she’s doing fine,” Davis said at the Pelicans’ media day. “Now it’s time to get Lauren back on track.”

The next step is Lauren Holiday undergoing surgery to remove her tumor, which was always slated to occur after she gave birth. Hopefully, that goes as smoothly.

Pat Riley believes Chris Bosh’s career is over: ‘We are not working toward his return’

Miami Heat players Josh Richardson, left, Chris Bosh, center, and Tyler Johnson, right, look up as they watch a video replay during the final seconds of the second half in Game 5 of an NBA basketball playoffs first-round series against the Charlotte Hornets, Wednesday, April 27, 2016, in Miami. The Hornets defeated the Heat 90-88. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee
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When the Heat and Chris Bosh reached détente during last year’s playoffs, the team released a statement saying both sides would continue working together to get him playing again.

After not clearing Bosh for training camp due to lingering blood-clot issues, Miami is pulling its support from that joint mission.

Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press:

There were reports the Heat believed Bosh is finished. Saying they’re no longer working toward getting him back on the court is blunt as can be.

I believe Riley cares about Bosh. Bosh has spent six years with Miami, become a part of the community, sacrificed his game when called upon, acted professionally and helped the Heat win two championships. He remained an excellent player when his blood-clotting became a problem, and losing his production would be a major blow. I believe there was and is genuine concern about Bosh’s health.

But to act as if the cap ramifications never crossed management’s mind is absurd. To review the situation:

Bosh has three years and $75,868,170 remaining on his contract. The Heat could waive him and have his remaining salary excluding from their team salary on Feb. 9, 2017 – one year from his last game – if he doesn’t play between now and then and a doctor determines he has suffered a career-ending injury or illness.

That doctor, selected jointly by the NBA and players union would have to determine Bosh “has an injury or illness that (i) prevents him from playing skilled professional basketball at an NBA level for the duration of his career, or (ii) substantially impairs his ability to play skilled professional basketball at an NBA level and is of such severity that continuing to play professional basketball at an NBA level would subject the player to medically unacceptable risk of suffering a life-threatening or permanently disabling injury or illness.” II would be the likely route here.

Bosh would still be paid if waived, but the doctor’s determination is the only way for Miami to get his salary off its books. That could open considerable cap space in 2017

Bosh never playing again would be bad for the Heat. Bosh getting waived then proving the doctors wrong and playing 25 games elsewhere would be worse for the Heat, because that would put his salary back on the their cap – though Miami could use the cap space in the 2017 offseason first. That’s why an even worse scenario for the Heat is Bosh playing sporadically and ineffectively between blood-clot problems over the next three years, continuing to count against the cap and putting his health at risk the entire time.

If the Heat can’t get a fully productive Bosh back, they might just want to get his salary off the books. The quickest way to do that is ensure he plays no games before Feb. 9.

Maybe Bosh shouldn’t play again. Playing on blood-thinners, according to most doctors, is dangerous. The common recommendation is for Bosh to remain on blood-thinners after his second episode.

But the cap ramifications are unavoidably part of the considerations now. If it gets to that point, the opinion of the jointly selected doctor will be huge. The Heat can’t unilaterally declare Bosh done.

And Bosh certainly isn’t declaring himself done, which puts him at odds with his team. There’s no more working together.

It’s now Heat vs. Bosh with several potential outcomes in play.

LAPD investigating Derrick Rose, who’s facing rape lawsuit, for criminal charges

FILE - In this June 24, 2016, file photo, New York Knicks' Derrick Rose speaks during a news conference at Madison Square Garden in New York. Phil Jackson made a risky move when he traded for the injury-prone Rose in June, and now the Knicks face the possibility of their point guard's involvement in a rape trial in California during his first preseason with the team.  (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer, File)
AP Photo/Mary Altaffer
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Derrick Rose‘s best argument in the court of public opinion as he defends himself in a rape lawsuit was the lack of criminal charges. There is no burden of proof for filing a lawsuit. Just because his alleged victim sued him proved nothing. If Rose broke the law, why wasn’t he facing criminal charges?

That question prevented the lawsuit from drawing major attention. It allowed Rose to paint the plaintiff as money hungry. It allowed the Knicks to operate without concern.

About that…

Judd Legum of ThinkProgress:

In a letter to the alleged victim’s attorney, Brandan Anand, a detective from the LAPD confirmed there is an active criminal investigation against Rose and the two other defendants in the civil trial.

Rose should be concerned, given the compelling evidence against him. There’s certainly a wide gap between some compelling evidence and a conviction, and the fact that the night in question was three years ago makes a conviction less likely. Rose hasn’t even been charged.

We’ll see what the investigation uncovers, but Rose just lost some benefit of the doubt.