Don’t go blaming the lockout when injuries pile up

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Starting Dec. 9 when training camps open, guys are going to get injured. And when it happens you are going to inevitably hear an announcer or that fool down bar from you drinking Bud Light say, “That’s because of the lockout.”

No, it’s not.

While it seems intuitive, it just doesn’t work that way. A guy spraining his ankle or injuring his knee could have happened at any point — whether it was working out or playing in the Chinese Basketball Association — because those things just happen. It wasn’t the lockout, it was bad luck. If anything, players may have saved wear-and-tear on chronic injuries, those could be less of an issue (although the condensed schedule will not help).

Don’t take my word for it. Will Carroll — the injury expert at Sports Illustrated — has studied NBA injuries in depth and in a post at The Point Forward he blows up the lockout-induced injury.

Traumatic injuries are random in when they occur, but predictable in how often they occur, according to a proprietary study I did for an NBA team two years ago… The gist of the study is that certain events make a player more likely to be injured traumatically and that traumatic injuries predict chronic ones. Players have a greater chance of suffering a traumatic injury if they persist in doing certain athletic activities over a long period.

While I can’t give you the details on the study, one such activity is jumping. Yes, jumping. It puts a strain on a player’s knees, ankles, hips and back. Players land wrong or land on someone else’s foot. It turns out the traumatic injuries are just the inevitable buildup of odds rather than a purely random occurrence. It’s Russian Roulette with a really big cylinder.

Which brings us back to the lockout and injuries. There’s simply no evidence that the lockout or even just a time away from the paternalistic embrace of a team increases the risk of injury. In the NFL, the lockout was widely believed to be problematic…. The general injury numbers have continued to stay in the normal range all season long.

But what about those nine guys in the NFL who injured their Achilles in the first weeks of the NFL season? Last season with full camps there were eight of those in the same time frame. Basically the same number.

So when your favorite player goes down, go ahead and curse the basketball gods. Just don’t blame the lockout.

Report: Arron Afflalo signs one year deal with Orlando Magic

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Take one more NBA veteran off the free agent board.

According to report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, Arron Afflalo has signed a one-year deal with the Orlando Magic. Afflalo’s deal with the Magic is $2.1 million according to Wojnarowski, which is the veteran’s minimum for a player with his experience.

Afflalo, 31, previously played for the Magic from 2012 to 2014 before being traded to the Denver Nuggets.

Via Twitter:

Afflalo played for the Sacramento Kings last season averaging 8.4 points, 2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game.

Report: Suns’ Brandon Knight tears ACL in left knee, could miss season

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Phoenix Suns point guard Brandon Knight could be out for the 2017–18 NBA season with a torn ACL in his left knee.

That’s according to a report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowksi, who released the news on Tuesday afternoon.

Knight, 25, has roughly three years and $45 million left on the contract he signed in 2015.

Via Twitter:

Knight has been speculated as a potential trade chip for some time, but with him out it is unclear whether Phoenix will want to make a move with the players currently on their roster.

Knight averaged 11 points, 2.4 assists, and 2.2 rebounds per game for the Suns last season in 54 contests.

Adam Silver: ‘I feel bad for what’s-ever is going on in Cleveland’

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Kyrie Irving‘s trade request has injected excitement into an NBA offseason that was slipping into a slow period, give or take a Carmelo Anthony trade.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver on The Rich Eisen Show:

I love the interest. I’m not ecstatic about the drama.

I feel bad for what’s-ever is going on in Cleveland, and I have no first-hand information. But I assume where there’s smoke, there’s fire. Brian Windhorst has sort of been cataloguing LeBron’s career for a long time, and he usually has very accurate insights from that team.

It’s upsetting to hear that, when you see superstar players who have co-existed, who had so much success together – obviously three Finals in a row, one championship – to hear that, for whatever reason, there’s a sense that they can’t continue to co-exist. Yeah, that’s drama, but it’s not necessarily the kind of drama that the league wants.

Silver knows he probably can’t break up the Warriors, so he wanted teams to step up and compete with Golden State. The Cavaliers had been the league’s best hope the last few years, and LeBron James ensures they remain a title contender. But this disarray hurts their chances.

If you’re wearing a tin-foil hat, remember what happened last time Silver felt bad for Cleveland

Trail Blazers trade Allen Crabbe to Nets for Andrew Nicholson

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The Nets signed Allen Crabbe to a four-year offer sheet worth nearly $75 million last summer. The Trail Blazers matched, preventing Brooklyn from acquiring him for a year.

Now, a little more than a year later, the Nets are finally getting him.

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN:

Crabbe is still owed $56,332,500 – a sizable amount for a one-dimensional 3-point shooter. The Trail Blazers obviously regret matching his deal considering they’re already dumping him for another bad contract and didn’t win a single playoff game in the interim.

But Portland is undoing that mistake in a big way.

The Trail Blazers are in line to save $54,330,160 this season with this trade – $37,842,090 in luxury tax and $16,488,070 in player salary. They’ll still have to pay Andrew Nicholson $2,844,430 each of the next seven years – no small thing – but they’re at least reducing their burden for each of the next three years, when major luxury-tax issues still loom. They can deal with 2024 later.

Competing for the playoffs, Portland will miss Crabbe off the bench. But there are reasons he was expandable.

He doesn’t create enough offense for himself or others, and his defense is passable at best (and not versatile). Crabbe’s 3-point percentage (44%) is impressive, but it’s in part due to his high selectivity. He launches 3s at a middling rate for a guard, and 77% of his long-distance attempts were classified as open or wide open by NBA.com.

Simply, Crabbe must do more to get open and/or hoist more shots that reduce his efficiency but boost’s his team’s. He could also lock in a little more defensively.

Still, Crabbe is a helpful player already. He’s also just 25, so he can improve. The Nets obviously like him.

And he apparently likes Brooklyn, waiving his $5,674,875 trade bonus to facilitate a deal. As controversy swirls over Kyrie Irving requesting a trade from one of the NBA’s best teams, it’s interesting Crabbe would leave money on the table to go from a playoff team to a cellar-dweller. The Nets offer a bigger city, probably more playing time and definitely a front office that values him. So, it’s a reasonable choice, but also one that raises eyebrows.